The Pats to me are a very good team. Maybe not a great team, but I think they are definitely a playoff-caliber team and really, if it weren't for some bad luck (like the Miami game fumble late) they could easily be 5-3 or even 6-2 right now.
They've played great teams like TB, DAL, etc. very tough and now just took down a tough Chargers team on the road and made Herbert look pedestrian in the process (which hasn't been an easy feat, ask almost every other team over the past 2 seasons).
The schedule starts to ease up and I think if they can go 6-3 in their next 9 games, then they finish 10-7 and that should get them a wild card spot.
What's encouraging to me is that, there actually seems to be improvement and progress every week and it's noticeable. It's not like last year where they just were super inconsistent and the offense in particular just looked mediocre ALL season long. They bought in a lot of new players and now they are starting to get comfortable and gel. The O-Line is looking solid again and it's making a difference.
I think the AFC is more wide open than most and I wouldn't count out the Pats. Not saying they are a SB threat but they can absolutely be a playoff team this season. Keep it rolling!
