Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.
Nine days left to build a wall to keep Jose out.
Mike
Latest model run has it eventually cut up through Maryland instead.
Won't know for sure until 3-4 days out, but Jose seems likely for a landfall somewhere between Hatteras and Cape Cod tues into wed next week.
Hopefully it spins out, but with Irma the models overplayed the spin out to sea so I'm skeptical.
Call me cynical, but I've noticed that the models tend to reflect the spin that will generate the most clicks and views.
Mike
It's not the models, it's the reporters. From a recent forecast regarding Jose:
Models show a wide range of possibilities, all the way from South Carolina to Newfoundland, or even out to sea. Of 20 runs of the GFS model ensemble forecast Monday morning, 25% resulted in an eventual landfall in the U.S., and another 25% in Canada. The rest kept the storm out to sea.
For the European weather model, a recurvature out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions.
So, it could go out to sea. Or it could strike, and if it does, it's most likely the Northeast US or Canada (which makes sense when you think about the shape of the coast, and that the storm is going to curve, but the question is how much?)
Again, models perform much better the closer in time we're at, and since landfall would be at least 7 days away, it's high uncertainty. Reporting, of course, picks the run of the model that sells the most.