Author Topic: Marcus vs Avery  (Read 8148 times)

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Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #30 on: June 27, 2018, 06:20:40 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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Clearly, we value Marcus Smart more than we would value Avery Bradley. 

However, if we could sign Avery at $5 million a year or less ... and Marcus Smart would cost $15 million per year, would Avery be the better bet this summer?

I don't think anyone is giving Smart over $14, and I don't think we can sign Avery for $5 million or less, so I feel like you're speaking in severe hypotheticals. But sure, for the price I'll take Avery back, but I still take a reasonably priced Smart over Bradley. AB is too injury prone to rely on him consistently anymore.

Odd fact:   Over the last 4 seasons, the number of regular season games each has played is very close.

Avery:  254
Marcus:  261

Not a huge difference.  All of it was from this last season, when Marcus played 54 games while Avery played only 46.   

Ironically, at one point, mid season they were almost tied.  Marcus got sidelined after playing 46 games as of schedule game 48.   Avery got shut down after his 46th game as of schedule game 55 (not long after he was traded to LAC).   At that point, Avery had played 1 more game over the prior 3 1/2 seasons than Marcus.   

Then, Marcus came back and played 8 games at the end of Feb/start of Mar before shutting down for the rest of he way.   That put him up by 7 over Avery for the 4 season period.

I guess my point would be that it's hard to say Marcus is all that much less "injury prone" than Avery.  If one is injury prone, then so is the other.
Avery avoids contact like the plague, stays out of the fray as much as possible, is a near worthless help defender, can't switch onto bigger players effectively, doesn't dive on the floor and plays like self preservation is his main goal and still gets hurt.  Marcus plays without regard for his own safety, lays his body on the line at all times, raises the level of everyone around him and is extremely effective.  There is no comparison as to their injury proneness nor their on court impact.

Eh, whether one gets injured due to speed-stressing one's joints or by diving on the floor, missed time is missed time.   You are just arguing over whose play style is more aesthetically appealing to you here.

As defensive players, neither player finds a ton of love from metrics that measure 'on court impact'.    I think most objective observers acknowledge they both have their strengths and weaknesses.
Avery gets hurt while trying not to get hurt resulting in ineffective minutes on the floor.  He is deathly afraid of screens ever since destroying his shoulders.  He simply cannot provide a positive impact defensively without being able to get over screens nor being capable of accepting switches onto bigger players.  He is still a bulldog defender in isolation, to bad that gains you very little when teams just avoid said situations as often as possible and put him in situations where he can be taken advantage of instead.  Teams are much smarter now and attack his poor help defense, run him off screens and force him into switches.

Marcus gets hurt while playing like an animal, diving on the floor, taking charges and throwing his body around.  He is very effective because of this play style, without playing in this manner he would lose every bit of positive impact he provides.  Getting hurt is par for the course for him.

Defensive metrics are garbage plain and simple.  They cannot in any way capture on court impact accurately. 

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #31 on: June 27, 2018, 06:30:43 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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I wouldn't overpay for Smart, but I don't think Bradley is a good substitute.

I don't think the reason is as hard to quantify as the "soul of the team" idea, either.  I simply think Smart is the far better defender in a defensive scheme that switches almost every pick.  Smart is built like a tank and can guard many forwards and even a few bigs.  Bradley is a terrific defender against small guards, but is much less useful when switched onto any other position.

Versatility means everything on the defensive side of the ball nowadays.  Single position shutdown defenders just don't have as much value anymore.  It's too easy to switch them into unfavorable matchups or just avoid them entirely.
^^^This. 

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #32 on: June 27, 2018, 06:51:00 PM »

Offline colincb

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Marc Stein:
Quote
Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets


- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #33 on: June 27, 2018, 07:23:17 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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Marc Stein:
Quote
Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets


- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj
No.  You are putting to much stock into "production" and extremely faulty metrics.  Production does NOT equal on court impact.  The "dinosaur" centers have been/are being pushed out of the league because you simply cannot win with them on the floor remotely consistently.  Small guards are the next biggest target to exploit and with the dinosaur centers disappearing they are next.  A bigger 3 and D guy on the wing, with no other skills, provides an easily better skill set to win with the way the game is being played now even if his "production" on offense is minimal. 

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #34 on: June 27, 2018, 07:38:25 PM »

Offline colincb

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Marc Stein:
Quote
Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets


- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj
No.  You are putting to much stock into "production" and extremely faulty metrics.  Production does NOT equal on court impact.  The "dinosaur" centers have been/are being pushed out of the league because you simply cannot win with them on the floor remotely consistently.  Small guards are the next biggest target to exploit and with the dinosaur centers disappearing they are next.  A bigger 3 and D guy on the wing, with no other skills, provides an easily better skill set to win with the way the game is being played now even if his "production" on offense is minimal. 

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

Do you have some better metrics?

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #35 on: June 27, 2018, 09:03:04 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Marc Stein:
Quote
Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets


- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj
No.  You are putting to much stock into "production" and extremely faulty metrics.  Production does NOT equal on court impact.  The "dinosaur" centers have been/are being pushed out of the league because you simply cannot win with them on the floor remotely consistently.  Small guards are the next biggest target to exploit and with the dinosaur centers disappearing they are next.  A bigger 3 and D guy on the wing, with no other skills, provides an easily better skill set to win with the way the game is being played now even if his "production" on offense is minimal. 

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

Do you have some better metrics?

Advanced stats like (defensive) win shares and VORP favor Smart. These attempt to measure impact - if I'm not mistaken DWS assigns team wins to players, and VORP compares the player's production to league average production.

Supposedly these are better measurements than counting stats.

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #36 on: June 27, 2018, 10:25:40 PM »

Offline colincb

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Marc Stein:
Quote
Hearing that the Grizzlies — who will be looking for wing upgrades with their mid-level exception — have Avery Bradley high among their free-agent targets


- AB has averaged 4 less games per season compared to Marcus after AB's rookie season when he sucked too much to get on the floor.

- I'm all for bringing Smart back at a reasonable price, but the hero worship here for Smart may be as bad as anyone I've seen on the Cs. Ever.

- AB was the better player in the 2016-17 season FWIW:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ce9Bj
No.  You are putting to much stock into "production" and extremely faulty metrics.  Production does NOT equal on court impact.  The "dinosaur" centers have been/are being pushed out of the league because you simply cannot win with them on the floor remotely consistently.  Small guards are the next biggest target to exploit and with the dinosaur centers disappearing they are next.  A bigger 3 and D guy on the wing, with no other skills, provides an easily better skill set to win with the way the game is being played now even if his "production" on offense is minimal. 

Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

Do you have some better metrics?

Advanced stats like (defensive) win shares and VORP favor Smart. These attempt to measure impact - if I'm not mistaken DWS assigns team wins to players, and VORP compares the player's production to league average production.

Supposedly these are better measurements than counting stats.

Were there any advanced stats that favored Bradley?

I know what the stats are and mean. I was asking The Oracle what he was using to support his claims.

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #37 on: June 27, 2018, 10:32:50 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #38 on: June 27, 2018, 11:10:01 PM »

Offline nostar

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Quote from: jambr380 link=topic=96996.msg2535945#msg2535945
What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy)

I wouldn't say squeaky:

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/12/29/avery-bradley-sex-assault-claims

Not saying he's guilty or innocent, just that it wasn't that long ago and he reportedly settled.

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #39 on: June 27, 2018, 11:22:50 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Quote from: jambr380 link=topic=96996.msg2535945#msg2535945
What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy)

I wouldn't say squeaky:

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/12/29/avery-bradley-sex-assault-claims

Not saying he's guilty or innocent, just that it wasn't that long ago and he reportedly settled.

Oops - tp. I forgot about that one  :o

Let's just call him a professional on the court who showed great determination in becoming a better player each year he played for the Cs.

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #40 on: June 28, 2018, 12:36:30 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Give me Marcus. Bradley is overrated on defense and not as good as his numbers suggest on offense. One of the least versatile players out there.
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Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #41 on: June 28, 2018, 01:08:58 AM »

Offline wiley

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Bradley wouldn't even be starting like he used to.  All teams should be lucky enough to have Avery Bradley off the bench...

I prefer Marcus too if we can keep him...but please don't act like you wouldn't enjoy Avery off the bench...He was a big part of our regular season wins against Golden State, including during their record season when the Celts beat them at home and ended an incredible streak....

He is a way above average bench guard...a starter on most teams in the league..

The analytics may be right over an entire season...but you can throw them out in the finals when-- to throw out a hypothetical-- Kyrie is banged up and Gordon Hayward is doing most of the distributing....Avery guards Curry...

On a team as stacked as next year's Celtics, Bradley would be a piece of gold (a few carrots less than Marcus..but still gold).  C's probably can't afford him.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 01:26:50 AM by wiley »

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #42 on: June 28, 2018, 02:06:45 AM »

Offline BoulderMike

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Memphis targeting Bradley as a free agent for ... $5 million (+). 

Earlier replies viewed this number as unrealistic ...

Just sayin...

2018 is a tough year for free agents

Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #43 on: June 28, 2018, 04:25:31 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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Avery doesn't have a single above average skill that can be utilized to provide a positive impact.  His shooting is average on the wing and his on ball defensive value is significantly diminished in a league that has grown much smarter.  When you add in the fact that he is undersized, injury prone, afraid of screens, very reluctant to draw a charge, poor help defender, etc..  I mean I like Avery but I can't think of a single reason why a G.M. would want to acquire him, let alone sign him to anything resembling a big, long term contract.

What on earth are you talking about?? Bradley was pretty clearly the 3rd best player on the EC #1 team two years ago (2nd leading scorer), he is elite coming off screens/dribble hand-offs into a quick jump-shot, he was literally known as a 'bulldog', and he is as squeaky clean as they come off the court (and a great locker room guy).

It's like you have never seen AB play. Other superstar guards consistently rate Bradley as the best defensive player they have ever played against. Long wings who can hit the 3 are certainly the new hip thing, but saying AB has no place in today's NBA is just patently false.
Avery had more trash games in the 16-17 playoffs than he had good ones.  The Celtics defense was atrocious save for a few games against Chicago AFTER Rondo went down and the Bulls had NO reliable PG.  The C's small guards (including Avery) were by far the single biggest problem defensively.  Avery looked great against an offensively inept Bulls team post Rondo and pretty ineffective otherwise. 

He is NOT elite coming off screens/dribble hand offs.  I don't think he has posted an above average T.S. in his entire career.

Other superstar guards do praise Avery's on ball defense and then they proceed to move him off ball, run him off screens, force him into switches, turn him into a help defender, etc. and make him ineffective.  Teams used to be dumber and would go at guys like Bradley in isolation, they do so far far less nowadays, they instead seek out better mismatches or attack him indirectly because he simply isn't very good off the ball.  Portland did exactly this late in the 15-16 season when Boston went there.  Lillard and C.J. praised Avery both before and after the game, however during the game they just refused to go at him and moved him off ball.  If Avery picked up Lillard then C.J. would bring it up and Lillard set up on the wing and vice versa, they rendered him much less effective by doing so.

I didn't say Avery doesn't belong in the NBA.  He simply doesn't provide a positive impact anymore just as half the rest of the league doesn't.  He will find a job somewhere on the cheap in a smaller role. 


Re: Marcus vs Avery
« Reply #44 on: June 28, 2018, 06:38:54 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I don't think there is any way he comes back here for a lowball contract.