Danny doesn't get enough credit

[Celtics4ever]

where in this thread does someone state this? you are right, but you are arguing against a straw figure here.

No one did say it, your taking my comment too literally.  The OP complained about folks griping about Giddens, my comment was pointing out that he is not perfect.   He has made some mistakes.   I was using colloquial language in tone.  I still think Ainge is a top three GM.


I guess, if you take things that literally, I have a bridge to sell you? 

[Clench123]

He gets too much credit

[Vermont Green]

I actually didn't think that Giddens was all that bad of a pick.  What was he, #30?  Not many of those are going to stick, the odds are against it.  Danny rolled the dice against bad odds and didn't win that one.

Now Fab Melo (may he rest in peace) was a bad pick, Danny's worst.  There is no way Danny or his scouts should have come back from the Carrier Dome and said this guy can play and we should take a chance on time.  He so clearly did not have NBA skills.  Of course easy for me to say after the fact but I honestly believe even I could have known if I could have seen him play live.  Scouts absolutely should have know.  Maybe Danny is bad at picking scouts, I don't know.

Drafting is a crap shoot, period.  Most draft picks are going to disappoint, some are going to surprise.  Danny has been a fine drafter and a top tier GM.  There is nothing to complain about here.  It could be oh so much worse.

[hwangjini_1]

where in this thread does someone state this? you are right, but you are arguing against a straw figure here.

No one did say it, your taking my comment too literally.  The OP complained about folks griping about Giddens, my comment was pointing out that he is not perfect.   He has made some mistakes.   I was using colloquial language in tone.  I still think Ainge is a top three GM.


I guess, if you take things that literally, I have a bridge to sell you?

Nope, that does quite work either. Sounds similar to the problems Biff had making points in the back to the future movies.

Taking things literally (which is debatable here) dos not imply or assume gullibility.

[trickybilly]

I trust Danny implicitly but seeing Ibaka, Noel, Nurkic, Bogut and even Tiago Splitter all go to good teams for next to nothing was a little offputting.

One can only presume that he only trusts Zeller being able to slide in understanding our team schemes if indeed in the playoffs.

Splitter is pretty much retired, he will never play again, and Bogut predictably got injured.

I know, I'm just saying that these quality bigs went for nothing. Splitter wouldn't have been available for the playoffs, so that is an exception, and of course I understand not trading away real assets for Bogut, given his injury history, but 1 more quality big would have made a huge difference - especially when KO is having an off night. Just Nurkic, Noel, and Ibaka then...

[slamtheking]

I trust Danny implicitly but seeing Ibaka, Noel, Nurkic, Bogut and even Tiago Splitter all go to good teams for next to nothing was a little offputting.

One can only presume that he only trusts Zeller being able to slide in understanding our team schemes if indeed in the playoffs.

Splitter is pretty much retired, he will never play again, and Bogut predictably got injured.

I know, I'm just saying that these quality bigs went for nothing. Splitter wouldn't have been available for the playoffs, so that is an exception, and of course I understand not trading away real assets for Bogut, given his injury history, but 1 more quality big would have made a huge difference - especially when KO is having an off night. Just Nurkic, Noel, and Ibaka then...

his reasoning could simply be that the assets being requested in a trade (and it's speculation if the C's were in any way involved in discussions with the players you mentioned) were much more than what was actually involved in the eventual trade OR he values the requested assets higher than he does the players in question.

None of Nurkic, Noel or Ibaka would have put this team over the top and into the finals.  made us better this year, probably -- hard to see how they couldn't in a vacuum -- but not knowing who or what picks would have had to go out in a deal may have hurt us too.  I don't like the idea of considering a year as a 'throwaway' year but I can support team efforts to improve the team in some manner from year to year (even if that improvement is blowing up a team that has peaked to begin a rebuild such as the PP/KG deal).

my guess would be Danny doesn't want to use assets for a partial-year rental of a player that he would not resign after the season or would cost too much to resign in the summer.  it would seem that he's keeping as much cap flexibility as he can in the hopes of getting a solid FA or two and perhaps using some current players/picks in the summer to land another top player.   thought --> sign Hayward.  Trade AB, Crowder and maybe a pick (reluctant to move Nets pick if giving up those 2 players) for Butler. 

IT/Butler/Hayward/Horford is a solid foursome to add to via Free agency while still having Smart, Brown, Rozier, Zizic, Yabu and 2017 pick in hand.  a decent big man FA and possibly resigning Amir and KO to reasonable deals to fill out the bench and this team's looking better for next year.

[Alleyoopster]

I actually didn't think that Giddens was all that bad of a pick.  What was he, #30?  Not many of those are going to stick, the odds are against it.  Danny rolled the dice against bad odds and didn't win that one.

Now Fab Melo (may he rest in peace) was a bad pick, Danny's worst.  There is no way Danny or his scouts should have come back from the Carrier Dome and said this guy can play and we should take a chance on time.  He so clearly did not have NBA skills.  Of course easy for me to say after the fact but I honestly believe even I could have known if I could have seen him play live.  Scouts absolutely should have know.  Maybe Danny is bad at picking scouts, I don't know.

Drafting is a crap shoot, period.  Most draft picks are going to disappoint, some are going to surprise.  Danny has been a fine drafter and a top tier GM.  There is nothing to complain about here.  It could be oh so much worse.

If you are shooting for number one, then number 3 isn't good enough. Sure San Antonio had Tim Duncan, but they always surrounded him with talent.  Even now without him they are tied for most wins in the NBA. They always find a way to get talent either through the draft, signings or trades. To say, "it could be worse" is a nice spin. It just doesn't win Championships.   

[TheSundanceKid]

I posted the below on Sept 2, 2016. Later in that same thread I corrected myself on West and called him average (not underperform). Overall that strikes me as an average drafter.  Some real hits, but plenty of real misses, and as I said it appears he is trending in the wrong direction (though Brown certainly looks pretty good thus far). 

Ainge full draft analysis

2003 - Banks (underperformed), Perkins (overperformed), Hunter (solid enough for a 2nd rounder, with 67 games total)
2004 - Jefferson (significantly overperformed), West (underperformed - though mental rather than physical and Boston traded him before he imploded so Ainge used that one well), Allen (overperformed), Reed (overperformed for a 2nd rounder)
2005 - Green (underperformed especially for Boston), Gomes (overperformed), Greene (overperformed for a 2nd rounder)
2006 - traded a lottery pick for Sebastian Telfair (wasted asset), Rondo (significantly overperformed - gave up a future 1st which turned out to be 24 in 2007 so solid trade as well)
2007 - traded a lottery pick for Ray Allen (used asset well), Davis (overperformed), Pruitt (solid enough)
2008 - Giddens (horrible), Erden (solid, though just 69 games total, but for pick 60 that isn't bad)
2009 - Hudson (same as Erden basically)
2010 - Bradley (overperformed), Harangody (same as Erden basically)
2011 - JJJ (horrible), Moore (overperformed - real nice value for end of 2nd round)
2012 - Sullinger (overperformed, though no longer on team), Melo (underperformed), Joseph (about average)
2013 - Olynyk (in a redraft he probably goes around 15, though ahead of most of the guys taken before him, just behind a lot of guys taken after him - so I will call this about average performance)
2014 - Smart (fairly early, but at this point looks more like the 10th pick than the 6th pick so I'll call that underperformed), Young (underperformed)
2015 - Rozier (probably too early to call Rozier), Hunter (if he gets cut then he underperformed)

So Ainge has traded into the lottery twice for Banks and Olynyk, neither one could be considered a success and Banks was an outright failure.  4 times Boston has had a lottery pick entering the draft.  The first two times Ainge traded the pick, once successfully, once badly.  The last two, Ainge has drafted i.e. Smart and Brown, so it is early to know how he did there, though Smart is looking more like the 10th pick than the 6th pick thus far.  Ainge has done quite well in the 2nd round overall, often getting players that at least play in the league a fair amount of the time and three times landing multiple contract NBA players in Gomes, Davis, and Moore.  The mid to late 1st round have been a real crap shoot.  Obviously Jefferson and Rondo were raging successes and Perkins, Bradley, and Sullinger have had solid careers, but he also took a number of players that were absolute failures.  My real concern, as I've stated in this thread, is Ainge is trending in the wrong direction.  His hits aren't hitting as nicely and he is missing a lot more frequently. 

What you've described there is an above average drafter given the position they have drafted in. I think you are harsh putting Smart at 10 when most would put him at least at 5 in a redraft. You did post this a while ago so perhaps your opinion had changed.

Context with picks is always the most important thing. For example when people say we drafted Melo and Sully ahead of Green, we have to remember that Golden State used their 3rd pick to select Green. They overlooked him twice before picking him.
When selecting Hunter, we apparently had eyes for Nance Jr who went one pick before. Hunter had slipped from a predicted draft position of 18 so seemed like a fairly good value pick, he didn't work out.

I guess the bit that really matters is the top end of the draft where he has picked Smart and Brown in the last few years. At the moment it looks like both were very good picks although it is still early days