Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[keevsnick]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

[smokeablount]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

Bingo.  This seems quite obvious to me in a world where GM's are frequently forced to gamble, and make tough speculative decisions.

[nickagneta]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

[MattyIce]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

TP, well put. 

as an aside, C's still prefer this pick to not convey this year, that i know

[nickagneta]

Now there is a scenario that works out great for both teams. Memphis wins the lottery this year or get a top 4 pick. No matter where they land next year, they win the lottery or get a top 4 pick. Then in 2021 the pick is the Celtics and the Celtics hope the Grizzlies suck one more year to win the C's the lotto or a top 4 pick. In 2022 the Grizz are mean and wild again.

Everyone is happy.

[MichiganAdam]

9th this year is certainly a better bet that 6+th pick next year, but we also have to figure out the "strength" in that area of the draft.  What type of player might be available.  Then you have to figure out what the roster might look like/ and whether you need the pick or player to complete a trade or replace the roster turnover from a trade.  THe pick is not certain to be 6th -10th for sure.  Look at the Sacramento pick.  No one thought it would be around 14th this time last year.  Too many teams tanking for a team with no incentive to tank to be real bad.  If the pick is 9th I think they want it this year for the certainty of what it is, versus the possibility it could be significantly worse, but only slightly better.
 

[Moranis]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

This exactly.  I've made this argument consistently in this thread.  The bottom line is the Grizzlies have a lot more options going forward if they control all of their own picks. 

[keevsnick]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

This exactly.  I've made this argument consistently in this thread.  The bottom line is the Grizzlies have a lot more options going forward if they control all of their own picks.

I agree that the grizz are trying to give the pick to control their own tanking, but part of that is also them reading the tea leaves. They have no obvious Avenue to get better, and a few ways to get much worse. That to me slants the value equation in favor of wanting a more lightly protected pick. The fact that the back of this lottery is weak only really rei forces that. To put it simply, worst case is a slightly worse pick in a probably equivalent or better draft, best case is top 5 pick. That's an easy call to me.

[Moranis]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

This exactly.  I've made this argument consistently in this thread.  The bottom line is the Grizzlies have a lot more options going forward if they control all of their own picks.

I agree that the grizz are trying to give the pick to control their own tanking, but part of that is also them reading the tea leaves. They have no obvious Avenue to get better, and a few ways to get much worse. That to me slants the value equation in favor of wanting a more lightly protected pick. The fact that the back of this lottery is weak only really rei forces that. To put it simply, worst case is a slightly worse pick in a probably equivalent or better draft, best case is top 5 pick. That's an easy call to me.

They got a lot better after moving on from Gasol.  If the pick doesn't transfer, they will get a top 10 pick this year and potentially a top 5 pick next year.  They have Conley to trade for value (they would get at least one 1st for him).  We've seen 2 teams this year alone basically turn it around in 2 off seasons in the Kings and Nets (there are almost 0 players on either of those team more than 3 seasons).  The Nets didn't even have any high picks and still managed to turn it around.  That obviously may not happen, but there is enough evidence out there that shows a blue print for not being terrible for very long.

[nickagneta]

Yup. I think there has been shown to be enough proof that if you are smart, about 2 seasons of bottoming out should start to make you a team that won't be completely awful that third year. Unless, of course, you decide to Hinkie it and purposely be bad for 4-5 years.

Then again, there is always the chance that the guy running the franchise is a complete knob(like Kahn in Minnesota) and his incompetence happens to make them bad for 5 plus years

[kraidstar]

If the Grizz pick lands at #8 and does not convey, could they and the Celtics mutually agree to alter the protections so that is DOES convey and relinquishing the Grizzlies from further commitments?

[PhoSita]

If the Grizz pick lands at #8 and does not convey, could they and the Celtics mutually agree to alter the protections so that is DOES convey and relinquishing the Grizzlies from further commitments?

I don't think so, but the Grizz and the Celts could probably do a trade around the time of the draft where the Grizz surrender that pick in exchange for some heavily protected Celtics pick that will never convey along with whatever remaining trade rights the Celts have associated with the original trade.  That would effectively do what you're suggesting.

[keevsnick]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

This exactly.  I've made this argument consistently in this thread.  The bottom line is the Grizzlies have a lot more options going forward if they control all of their own picks.

I agree that the grizz are trying to give the pick to control their own tanking, but part of that is also them reading the tea leaves. They have no obvious Avenue to get better, and a few ways to get much worse. That to me slants the value equation in favor of wanting a more lightly protected pick. The fact that the back of this lottery is weak only really rei forces that. To put it simply, worst case is a slightly worse pick in a probably equivalent or better draft, best case is top 5 pick. That's an easy call to me.

They got a lot better after moving on from Gasol.  If the pick doesn't transfer, they will get a top 10 pick this year and potentially a top 5 pick next year.  They have Conley to trade for value (they would get at least one 1st for him).  We've seen 2 teams this year alone basically turn it around in 2 off seasons in the Kings and Nets (there are almost 0 players on either of those team more than 3 seasons).  The Nets didn't even have any high picks and still managed to turn it around.  That obviously may not happen, but there is enough evidence out there that shows a blue print for not being terrible for very long.

Again tho, if the kings are the absolutely worst case scenario then that's not bad. Getting the 13-14th pick in the draft is not drastically different then the 9th-10th pick especially in a draft considered pretty weekend after the top 3. The upside of a top 5 pick in my opinion clearly out ways the potential loss in value. And for every nets team that turns it around in two years there is Phoenix, Orlando, Clevland etc that spends half a decade or more in the lottery. Even the Kings who you point out sucked for a decade before they figured it out. Trading Conley would actually be awesome. They would get value, but nothing that will help them as much or as soon as Conley in all likelihood.

And too be honest I think both us, if we used the pick, or the NOP if its trade bait would rather the pick roll over for practical reasons. We are for sure getting 3 picks already, if we have to make them that's 3 rookies we already can't really play. If we trade it NOP has the same.priblems, even rebuilding teams don't want that many young guys all at once. Hard to play them all. And rebuilding teams almost always chase upside. Hence the desire for the puck to roll over.

[KGs Knee]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

This exactly.  I've made this argument consistently in this thread.  The bottom line is the Grizzlies have a lot more options going forward if they control all of their own picks.

I agree that the grizz are trying to give the pick to control their own tanking, but part of that is also them reading the tea leaves. They have no obvious Avenue to get better, and a few ways to get much worse. That to me slants the value equation in favor of wanting a more lightly protected pick. The fact that the back of this lottery is weak only really rei forces that. To put it simply, worst case is a slightly worse pick in a probably equivalent or better draft, best case is top 5 pick. That's an easy call to me.

They got a lot better after moving on from Gasol.  If the pick doesn't transfer, they will get a top 10 pick this year and potentially a top 5 pick next year.  They have Conley to trade for value (they would get at least one 1st for him).  We've seen 2 teams this year alone basically turn it around in 2 off seasons in the Kings and Nets (there are almost 0 players on either of those team more than 3 seasons).  The Nets didn't even have any high picks and still managed to turn it around.  That obviously may not happen, but there is enough evidence out there that shows a blue print for not being terrible for very long.

Again tho, if the kings are the absolutely worst case scenario then that's not bad. Getting the 13-14th pick in the draft is not drastically different then the 9th-10th pick especially in a draft considered pretty weekend after the top 3. The upside of a top 5 pick in my opinion clearly out ways the potential loss in value. And for every nets team that turns it around in two years there is Phoenix, Orlando, Clevland etc that spends half a decade or more in the lottery. Even the Kings who you point out sucked for a decade before they figured it out. Trading Conley would actually be awesome. They would get value, but nothing that will help them as much or as soon as Conley in all likelihood.

And too be honest I think both us, if we used the pick, or the NOP if its trade bait would rather the pick roll over for practical reasons. We are for sure getting 3 picks already, if we have to make them that's 3 rookies we already can't really play. If we trade it NOP has the same.priblems, even rebuilding teams don't want that many young guys all at once. Hard to play them all. And rebuilding teams almost always chase upside. Hence the desire for the puck to roll over.

I can guarantee you the Pelicans would value the pick more if they knew it was conveying at #9 in the upcoming than they would if it rolls over and remains an unknown quantity.

Savvy GM's just don't look at future picks in the way you think they do.

[keevsnick]

Griz beat the Suns tonight.

So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.

Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.

Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?

Let me look into my crystal ball

Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.

-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford

100% the unprotected.  Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).

The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.

It might or it might not.  I mean Boston has seen this first hand.  Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either.  Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.

For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.

You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.

That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.

It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset.  My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would.  That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.

Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.

The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.

You don’t agree?

Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick.  The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years.  Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future.  The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc.  If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position.  heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.

Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.

The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.

If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.

Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.

You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.

Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.

Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.

This exactly.  I've made this argument consistently in this thread.  The bottom line is the Grizzlies have a lot more options going forward if they control all of their own picks.

I agree that the grizz are trying to give the pick to control their own tanking, but part of that is also them reading the tea leaves. They have no obvious Avenue to get better, and a few ways to get much worse. That to me slants the value equation in favor of wanting a more lightly protected pick. The fact that the back of this lottery is weak only really rei forces that. To put it simply, worst case is a slightly worse pick in a probably equivalent or better draft, best case is top 5 pick. That's an easy call to me.

They got a lot better after moving on from Gasol.  If the pick doesn't transfer, they will get a top 10 pick this year and potentially a top 5 pick next year.  They have Conley to trade for value (they would get at least one 1st for him).  We've seen 2 teams this year alone basically turn it around in 2 off seasons in the Kings and Nets (there are almost 0 players on either of those team more than 3 seasons).  The Nets didn't even have any high picks and still managed to turn it around.  That obviously may not happen, but there is enough evidence out there that shows a blue print for not being terrible for very long.

Again tho, if the kings are the absolutely worst case scenario then that's not bad. Getting the 13-14th pick in the draft is not drastically different then the 9th-10th pick especially in a draft considered pretty weekend after the top 3. The upside of a top 5 pick in my opinion clearly out ways the potential loss in value. And for every nets team that turns it around in two years there is Phoenix, Orlando, Clevland etc that spends half a decade or more in the lottery. Even the Kings who you point out sucked for a decade before they figured it out. Trading Conley would actually be awesome. They would get value, but nothing that will help them as much or as soon as Conley in all likelihood.

And too be honest I think both us, if we used the pick, or the NOP if its trade bait would rather the pick roll over for practical reasons. We are for sure getting 3 picks already, if we have to make them that's 3 rookies we already can't really play. If we trade it NOP has the same.priblems, even rebuilding teams don't want that many young guys all at once. Hard to play them all. And rebuilding teams almost always chase upside. Hence the desire for the puck to roll over.

I can guarantee you the Pelicans would value the pick more if they knew it was conveying at #9 in the upcoming than they would if it rolls over and remains an unknown quantity.

Savvy GM's just don't look at future picks in the way you think they do.

I just don't agree. Don't forget they are getting a new GM, whomever comes in has a couple years of equity and likely the leeway for a longer rebuild. I think they'd much rather be able to tell their owner they got a potential top 5 pick than number 9.

I think people just underestimate the value of a top pi k. You can trade stuff and get into the mid to late lottery, top 4s are rarely traded except for other top 4 picks. It's the single most valuable thing in the nba (outside of a rookie scale star like Doncic).