Do the Cavs and Lakers' schedules REALLY get tougher?

[Dirk]

OH yeah, Lakers lost 

/ /

I have been keeping track of some numbers of the top 4 teams in the league in terms of the average winning % of their opponents and other stats. It's a way of finding out how tough the schedules have been so far, just measuring opponents winning %, number of teams they've played so far that are over and under .500, and home games vs away games.

I don't count in/measure the teams streaks, slumps, injuries, back to backs, number of games played in same period of time, etc., only what you will see below.

I can tell you the following after games played on JAN 28TH:

1. CELTICS

Celtics opponents average winning %

.490 total
.470 for teams played against away from Boston
.508 for teams played against at home (in Boston)

Celtics opponents:

opponents with >=.500 average winning %:
  19 tot
  8 away
  11 at home

opponents with <.500 average winning %:
  27 tot
  14 away
  13 at home

games:
46 tot
2 more games at home than away

2. LAKERS

Lakers opponents: average winning %

.490 total
.475 for teams played against away from LA
.500 for teams played against at home (in LA)

Lakers opponents:

opponents with >=.500 average winning %:
  23 tot
  9 away
  14 at home

opponents with <.500 average winning %:
  21 tot
  8 away
  13 at home

games:
44
10 more games at home than away


3. Cleveland

Cleveland opponents: average winning %

.472 total
.489 for teams played against away from Cleveland
.455 for teams played against at home (in Cleveland)

Cleveland opponents:

opponents with >=.500 average winning %:
  17 tot
  10 away
  7 at home

opponents with <.500 average winning %:
  26 tot
  12 away
  14 at home

total games:
43
1 more games away than at home


4. Orlando

Orlando opponents: average winning %

.472 total
.471 for teams played against away from Orlando
.472 for teams played against at home (in Orlando)

Orlando opponents:

opponents with >=.500 average winning %:
  20 tot
  11 away
  9 at home

opponents with <.500 average winning %:
  24 tot
  12 away
  12 at home

total games:
44
2 more games away than at home



So the numbers that stand out for me are:

Cleveland and Orlando have the lowest opp average winning % (.472, .472). Boston (.490) and LA (.490).
Conclusion: Cleveland and Orlando have had a easier schedules so far (in terms of this stat right here). A little bit at least.

Most noticeable, Cleveland opp average winning % of home games is waaay lower than the other three teams, at .455. Boston's is .508, LA's is .500, Orlando's is .472). This at least tells you that Cleveland has had a very easy schedule at home so far. That's a fact. Yes, they have been playing really well, specially at home, but it's easier to remain unbeaten with that number I just showed you. On the other hand, they've had the toughest road average winning % of the top 4 teams at .489, and they have lost 8 and won 14.

The >=.500 and <.500 stats are a little tricky because both depend a lot on the conference you are in. LA has played more teams >=.500 but that also has to do with the fact that in the west there are 9 teams that match that criteria. In the east, there are only 6. On the other hand, the <.500 teams on the west are way worse than those on the east. That's why I think the opp winning % is a better stat to measure all of this "schedule toughness". So don't put much weight on that over and under .500 stat.

Also notice that the leagues average winning % is of course .500. Most probably, one conference (so far the east) is going to end with >.500 record and the other one <.500. That means that it will be a fact that at the end of the season BOS, CLE and ORL will finish with the same opp winning % average, but LA will have a different one (as I said before, probably a lower one if the east beats the west on conference head to head). When you consider this, you realize things like the fact that Cleveland is due to a tougher schedule the rest of the way, given that the opp winning % will end up being the same number for them (Cleveland), Boston and Orlando.

Very important stat: LA has played 10 more games at home rather than away. That a lot more games. They are up to some huge road trips later on the season. Playing at home is always a huge advantage, specially for good teams.

OK, so stats only show part of the story. Of course, what matter are the games they play and the way they play. What I collect from all this is that the Celtics don't have to worry anymore about the schedule because teams like Cleveland, LA, and Orlando are up to tougher schedules the rest of the way.

[guava_wrench]

Great stat breakdown, except Bos, Cle and Orl will not end up with same opponent winning % since there are some teams in the east that they will play 3 times, and some that they will play 4. Plus, they can't play themselves.

[Dirk]

Posted by: guava_wrench

Great stat breakdown, except Bos, Cle and Orl will not end up with same opponent winning % since there are some teams in the east that they will play 3 times, and some that they will play 4. Plus, they can't play themselves.

Totally right. Thanks for correcting my statement. They should be pretty similar though. The three of them will have similar records and a couple games don't add much difference when you consider the teams each of them played only three times instead of four.

[Fafnir]

Posted by: guava_wrench

Great stat breakdown, except Bos, Cle and Orl will not end up with same opponent winning % since there are some teams in the east that they will play 3 times, and some that they will play 4. Plus, they can't play themselves.

Totally right. Thanks for correcting my statement. They should be pretty similar though. The three of them will have similar records and a couple games don't add much difference when you consider the teams each of them played only three times instead of four.

Did you remove the games against the Cavs/Celts/Lakers/Magic respectively from the percentages for each team?