2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[johnnygreen]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

[Celtics2021]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

But LeBron never gets any calls…

[celticsclay]

When a team is 14-11 under a new coach and were 31-13 under the previous coach. I think it is fair to say things like Beverly was a good addition or that Middleton is looking healthier, but I've yet to see one person explain to me all this Doc helps them or gave them a spark stuff (and it is not like they have even been dominant lately with a 6-4 in their last ten while being outscored.

That is fair, the impact of the coach is very hard to quantify.  To me, it just looks like they are trying harder on defense.  Just seem to be playing with more energy.  Seem more connected on offense.  It may not have anything to do with the coach.  And even if I think it does and you think it doesn't, there is no way I can prove it either way.

Yeah you could very will be right I was genuinely curious because I have seen this from a number of people and you would think the records under griffin and doc would be the opposite based on how it has been discussed. To be fair I have never really thought of Doc as much of a tactician either, more just a motivational guy that is good at managing star egos (which is an important skill). I think Griffin had them playing a particularly bad defensive scheme that had Lopez running around to much, but would be curious how good their defense really is now. It seems like that starting backcourt you can only do so much with, but maybe a healthy middleton can help cover some stuff. 

[Roy H.]

When a team is 14-11 under a new coach and were 31-13 under the previous coach. I think it is fair to say things like Beverly was a good addition or that Middleton is looking healthier, but I've yet to see one person explain to me all this Doc helps them or gave them a spark stuff (and it is not like they have even been dominant lately with a 6-4 in their last ten while being outscored.

That is fair, the impact of the coach is very hard to quantify.  To me, it just looks like they are trying harder on defense.  Just seem to be playing with more energy.  Seem more connected on offense.  It may not have anything to do with the coach.  And even if I think it does and you think it doesn't, there is no way I can prove it either way.

Yeah, I think it's probably a bit unfair to judge a new coach on his immediate record with a team.  If the new coach is tasked with breaking bad habits, earning the trust of the players, implementing his system it's probably going to take months to measure any real impact.

The only real difference I think a coach can make in the short-term is in motivation.  In that respect, I don't really know what to make of the Bucks playing poorly initially after Doc's hiring. 

[SHAQATTACK]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

Has nothing to do with LeBron and AZd ? Right

[Moranis]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

much more about the lack of fouls called against the Lakers than the calls the Lakers get. The Lakers lead the league with fewest fouls against.  Boston is 2nd this year and thst is why Boston has a net of 3 fouls this year, especially with more drives being taken.

[Goldstar88]

Bradeaux: .@ShamsCharania on Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun: “The #Rockets called the Nets on Mikal Bridges discussing a concept around Jalen Green and multiple 1sts, that was not accepted… It’s a great problem for the #Rockets to have, you have 2 burgeoning stars with Şengün, with Jalen Green… What do you do if you’re the #Rockets moving forward, can these 2 guys co-exist? They haven’t figured it out yet” – via Twitter

[Celtics2021]

Bradeaux: .@ShamsCharania on Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun: “The #Rockets called the Nets on Mikal Bridges discussing a concept around Jalen Green and multiple 1sts, that was not accepted… It’s a great problem for the #Rockets to have, you have 2 burgeoning stars with Şengün, with Jalen Green… What do you do if you’re the #Rockets moving forward, can these 2 guys co-exist? They haven’t figured it out yet” – via Twitter

That’s some weird timing on that statement — I wonder who pushed it to Shams.  Green and Sengun have a -0.1 net rating when on the floor together, but over the Rockets last 15 games that’s gone up to +5.3 over 250 minutes.  It’s weird to say they haven’t figured out how to co-exist at a time when it’s beginning to look like they’re doing just that.

[Who]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

Feels a bit misleading for the twitter poster to make it a two year number. Intentionally so.

I was trying to figure out where those numbers came from because they looked like nothing I was seeing until I re-read the post. Two years. Not one year.

So LAL is a low foul defensive team and a high foul earner on offense. Most of the other low foul defensive teams are average to below average at drawing fouls. While most of the other high foul earners are average to below average (worse) at giving away fouls on defense. So LAL racks up a higher differential.

Then you add all the personnel changes like on teams such as PHX who have changed hugely over the two year period and you have further disparities based on roster changes.

Not as shocking a number as it first appears to be.

[Who]

Bradeaux: .@ShamsCharania on Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun: “The #Rockets called the Nets on Mikal Bridges discussing a concept around Jalen Green and multiple 1sts, that was not accepted… It’s a great problem for the #Rockets to have, you have 2 burgeoning stars with Şengün, with Jalen Green… What do you do if you’re the #Rockets moving forward, can these 2 guys co-exist? They haven’t figured it out yet” – via Twitter

BKN should have made that deal. Good trade. Sets them up for a proper rebuild. Gives them a young dude with more upside.

Frankly, I am surprised Houston were willing to give up firsts alongside Jalen Green to Mikal Bridges. That was a home run for BKN.

[MattyIce]

Bradeaux: .@ShamsCharania on Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun: “The #Rockets called the Nets on Mikal Bridges discussing a concept around Jalen Green and multiple 1sts, that was not accepted… It’s a great problem for the #Rockets to have, you have 2 burgeoning stars with Şengün, with Jalen Green… What do you do if you’re the #Rockets moving forward, can these 2 guys co-exist? They haven’t figured it out yet” – via Twitter

BKN should have made that deal. Good trade. Sets them up for a proper rebuild. Gives them a young dude with more upside.

Frankly, I am surprised Houston were willing to give up firsts alongside Jalen Green to Mikal Bridges. That was a home run for BKN.

to be fair Jalen wasnt playing well before Sengun went down, that created more space.  sure seems like a homerun now, missed opportunity to get their own picks back as well

[Roy H.]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

Feels a bit misleading for the twitter poster to make it a two year number. Intentionally so.

I was trying to figure out where those numbers came from because they looked like nothing I was seeing until I re-read the post. Two years. Not one year.

So LAL is a low foul defensive team and a high foul earner on offense. Most of the other low foul defensive teams are average to below average at drawing fouls. While most of the other high foul earners are average to below average (worse) at giving away fouls on defense. So LAL racks up a higher differential.

Then you add all the personnel changes like on teams such as PHX who have changed hugely over the two year period and you have further disparities based on roster changes.

Not as shocking a number as it first appears to be.

I agree with a lot of this, but isn't there an argument that what makes LA a "low foul defensive team" and a "high foul earner" is because of favorable whistles?

The lack of fouling in particular seems suspect for a mediocre defensive team without a lot of elite defenders.

[celticsclay]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

Feels a bit misleading for the twitter poster to make it a two year number. Intentionally so.

I was trying to figure out where those numbers came from because they looked like nothing I was seeing until I re-read the post. Two years. Not one year.

So LAL is a low foul defensive team and a high foul earner on offense. Most of the other low foul defensive teams are average to below average at drawing fouls. While most of the other high foul earners are average to below average (worse) at giving away fouls on defense. So LAL racks up a higher differential.

Then you add all the personnel changes like on teams such as PHX who have changed hugely over the two year period and you have further disparities based on roster changes.

Not as shocking a number as it first appears to be.

I agree with a lot of this, but isn't there an argument that what makes LA a "low foul defensive team" and a "high foul earner" is because of favorable whistles?

The lack of fouling in particular seems suspect for a mediocre defensive team without a lot of elite defenders.

Yeah, I think they earn most of their foul shots on the offensive end even if it pains me to admit it. AD and Lebron get hacked a lot (although it seems like Reaves is getting less calls this year for being incredibly physically weak). However, Lebron and AD should have more fouls called on them defensively especially Lebron who is a below average defender at this point in his career.

[Who]

Watching some of this OKC-MIL game, man OKC gets abused by teams with size. They better hope they don't draw the Lakers/Kings first round, or even a bracket where they play Denver 2nd round. Guys like AD, Sabonis, Jokic will just manhandle them inside.

This has been their problem all season too, and why I'm not as sold on them as the other West elites (although KAT going down for MIN recently definitely changes the picture a bit)

OKC isn’t exactly in the “championship or bust” phase like the Celtics, is anyone actually expecting them to make it out of the west playoffs? That would be incredible. I just see them as a really good young team with a high trajectory in the future, any success they may have in this years playoffs is just a cherry on top to a really good season.
Oh and there’s also the fact they played Milwaukee who is starting to look incredibly scary and has 4 guys that have been all stars and 2 first ballot hall of fame players. I know everyone around here thinks they stink….they don’t.

Nah, Milwaukee stink.

They are an old broken down team.

They have the worst perimeter defense in the league with Lillard, Middleton and Malik Beasley. With Middleton's physical & athletic decline and the loss of Jrue Holiday, they can no longer compensate for Brook Lopez' lack of mobility. Their drop coverage doesn't work anymore because they do not have the big long defensive capable perimeter players to help and recover quickly / to shrink the court. Brook Lopez cannot matchup with perimeter bigs. Giannis is a strong team defender at forward but not a high level man defender. They have no high level man defender at forward or at guard.

They are a broken down old team.

With very little depth. Only really Portis and and newly acquired Pat Beverley. The rest of their team stinks.

Lillard and Giannis are a potent duo. They just do not have the help they need around them. The rest of the squad is a mess largely due to Middleton's decline & their inability to build quality depth.

[Who]

I found this pretty interesting:

Net free throws attempts since the start of last season, including the playoffs.

1. Lakers (+1,017)
2. Knicks (+358)

That is a massive difference between number 1 and 2.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1772275077280858370

Feels a bit misleading for the twitter poster to make it a two year number. Intentionally so.

I was trying to figure out where those numbers came from because they looked like nothing I was seeing until I re-read the post. Two years. Not one year.

So LAL is a low foul defensive team and a high foul earner on offense. Most of the other low foul defensive teams are average to below average at drawing fouls. While most of the other high foul earners are average to below average (worse) at giving away fouls on defense. So LAL racks up a higher differential.

Then you add all the personnel changes like on teams such as PHX who have changed hugely over the two year period and you have further disparities based on roster changes.

Not as shocking a number as it first appears to be.

I agree with a lot of this, but isn't there an argument that what makes LA a "low foul defensive team" and a "high foul earner" is because of favorable whistles?

The lack of fouling in particular seems suspect for a mediocre defensive team without a lot of elite defenders.

Low defensive fouls / FTs conceded

I see low fouling as more of a defensive tactic than personnel driven. Popovich has always been big on avoiding fouls. They did so when they had high level defensive teams led by Tim Duncan and when they had bad defensive teams after Duncan.

The Spurs are 7th best this year in FTA/FGA. That is with Wemby. They were 8th best last year. They were 6th the year before. 6th the year before that. 12th the year before then. And 2nd best the year before that which was the last year they made the playoffs led by DeRozan and L Aldridge. None of those teams were good defensive squads yet they were often near the top of the league in this category. This is why I believe it is more defensive strategy than personnel driven. 

Other coaches prefer for their defenses to be more physical and believe the trade off of higher FTAs is worth it to create more turnovers and force a lower defensive FG%. The old Pat Riley Knicks teams of the 1990s. Beat him up and live with the extra fouls.

So I put that down more to tactics than to personnel. So coaching driven rather than player driven.

High Fouls Drawn / FTAs earned

I see foul drawing as more personnel driven than coaching. If you have great foul hunters like James Harden and what not. That sort of thing. There is only so much a coach can do to alter this. This is player driven.

LAL have two guys who draw a lot of fouls in LeBron and A Davis. So I'd expect them to be above average. Same with somebody like Milwaukee who have Lillard and Giannis. Or Philly with Embiid who is a foul drawing monster like Shaq was.

------------------------------

They should have a strong FTA differential given their defensive tactics and personnel.

So I would think you would have to compare LAL to teams with similar characteristics to get a good sense of how much of a friendly whistle they are or are not getting.

The difficulty there is that many of the teams that use similar defensive tactics do not have personnel that earn high FTAs. And many who do have guys who earn high FTAs do not use same defensive tactics.

So the comparisons are hard to figure.