So When Is It Time to Revisit the Smart / Randle Thing?

[chilidawg]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

KO is 10th by win Shares, 11th by WS48, 8th by BPM and 9th by VORP. Yes they're metrics, but they all tell pretty much the same story. Slotting KO in the 10-15 range seems about right. A straight "par" by Danny on that one, I think, and in a draft where reading talent was far more difficult than usual.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html

I hate using win shares because they are based on a team's actual wins and thus it is very difficult to compare players on vastly different team situations.

Which is why he gave you a number of different stats to look at.

[mctyson]

I don't think KO outplayed his draft slot at all.  I think he goes around 15 in a re-draft, a couple of slots behind where he actually went.  He would go ahead of plenty of players taken in front of him, but there are a lot of guys that went after him that would go ahead of him in a redraft (including someone like Covington that wasn't even drafted).

Would you mind posting the 14 or so players you have ahead of him from the 2013 draft? I can see like 7 that definitely go ahead of him, but I don't even see enough guys that have an argument for going ahead of Kelly in a redraft to put him at 15

Even if you can find 14 or 10, it is a meaningless argument.  The question is:  has Kelly performed about as expected for someone in his position, and the answer is unequivocally yes.

[mctyson]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

You don't grade on players you miss, you grade on the player drafted.  Kelly is no lower than a B as he has performed exactly as you would expect a mid-first rounder to perform.  He is starter-level talent and 6th - 7th guy on a good team.

[Moranis]

I don't think KO outplayed his draft slot at all.  I think he goes around 15 in a re-draft, a couple of slots behind where he actually went.  He would go ahead of plenty of players taken in front of him, but there are a lot of guys that went after him that would go ahead of him in a redraft (including someone like Covington that wasn't even drafted).

Would you mind posting the 14 or so players you have ahead of him from the 2013 draft? I can see like 7 that definitely go ahead of him, but I don't even see enough guys that have an argument for going ahead of Kelly in a redraft to put him at 15

Even if you can find 14 or 10, it is a meaningless argument.  The question is:  has Kelly performed about as expected for someone in his position, and the answer is unequivocally yes.

I'd absolutely agree with that (and I've never said otherwise), he went 13 so as long as he performed in the 11-15 range, then it is an average selection or about what you would expect to get. 

[Moranis]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

You don't grade on players you miss, you grade on the player drafted.  Kelly is no lower than a B as he has performed exactly as you would expect a mid-first rounder to perform.  He is starter-level talent and 6th - 7th guy on a good team.

No you grade players on the actual draft they are drafted in.  If you draft a guy 10th, but in a redraft he would go 5th that is a good selection, even if in some other draft he would go 25th. 

And KO is not the 6th or 7th player on a good team.  He isn't even that on the Celtics and the Celtics aren't a legit contender. 

[celticsclay]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

You don't grade on players you miss, you grade on the player drafted.  Kelly is no lower than a B as he has performed exactly as you would expect a mid-first rounder to perform.  He is starter-level talent and 6th - 7th guy on a good team.

No you grade players on the actual draft they are drafted in.  If you draft a guy 10th, but in a redraft he would go 5th that is a good selection, even if in some other draft he would go 25th. 

And KO is not the 6th or 7th player on a good team.  He isn't even that on the Celtics and the Celtics aren't a legit contender.

Who do you think is our 7th player? He is actually 6th in minutes per game. It seems like you think he is behind Jerekbro and Mickey or something weird. He is clearly our first big off the bench. 

[mctyson]

I don't think KO outplayed his draft slot at all.  I think he goes around 15 in a re-draft, a couple of slots behind where he actually went.  He would go ahead of plenty of players taken in front of him, but there are a lot of guys that went after him that would go ahead of him in a redraft (including someone like Covington that wasn't even drafted).

Would you mind posting the 14 or so players you have ahead of him from the 2013 draft? I can see like 7 that definitely go ahead of him, but I don't even see enough guys that have an argument for going ahead of Kelly in a redraft to put him at 15

Even if you can find 14 or 10, it is a meaningless argument.  The question is:  has Kelly performed about as expected for someone in his position, and the answer is unequivocally yes.

I'd absolutely agree with that (and I've never said otherwise), he went 13 so as long as he performed in the 11-15 range, then it is an average selection or about what you would expect to get.

I tend to put a more of a positive spin on getting what you expect out of any draft pick.  Kelly to me is an above-average pick (why my grade would be B, and no lower) simply because he is performing at worst like a low-end lottery pick, so it is safe to say that was a "good" selection by Ainger.  In that range of the draft, there is at least a 1 in 4 chance of getting a bust.  As I said above, Kelly is a 6th-7th guy off the bench on a very good team and would easily start on half of the teams in the league.

[Moranis]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

You don't grade on players you miss, you grade on the player drafted.  Kelly is no lower than a B as he has performed exactly as you would expect a mid-first rounder to perform.  He is starter-level talent and 6th - 7th guy on a good team.

No you grade players on the actual draft they are drafted in.  If you draft a guy 10th, but in a redraft he would go 5th that is a good selection, even if in some other draft he would go 25th. 

And KO is not the 6th or 7th player on a good team.  He isn't even that on the Celtics and the Celtics aren't a legit contender.

Who do you think is our 7th player? He is actually 6th in minutes per game. It seems like you think he is behind Jerekbro and Mickey or something weird. He is clearly our first big off the bench.

I'd put him behind the 5 starters, Smart and Brown (though I would listen to arguments on Brown since he is just a rookie), which would make him 8th.  I would expect that if he is on the Celtics next year, he will be more like the 9th or 10th best player. 

[Moranis]

I don't think KO outplayed his draft slot at all.  I think he goes around 15 in a re-draft, a couple of slots behind where he actually went.  He would go ahead of plenty of players taken in front of him, but there are a lot of guys that went after him that would go ahead of him in a redraft (including someone like Covington that wasn't even drafted).

Would you mind posting the 14 or so players you have ahead of him from the 2013 draft? I can see like 7 that definitely go ahead of him, but I don't even see enough guys that have an argument for going ahead of Kelly in a redraft to put him at 15

Even if you can find 14 or 10, it is a meaningless argument.  The question is:  has Kelly performed about as expected for someone in his position, and the answer is unequivocally yes.

I'd absolutely agree with that (and I've never said otherwise), he went 13 so as long as he performed in the 11-15 range, then it is an average selection or about what you would expect to get.

I tend to put a more of a positive spin on getting what you expect out of any draft pick.  Kelly to me is an above-average pick (why my grade would be B, and no lower) simply because he is performing at worst like a low-end lottery pick, so it is safe to say that was a "good" selection by Ainger.  In that range of the draft, there is at least a 1 in 4 chance of getting a bust.  As I said above, Kelly is a 6th-7th guy off the bench on a very good team and would easily start on half of the teams in the league.

The problem with doing it that way is Kenyon Martin.  He was pretty convincingly the best player in his draft (Redd and Crawford are really his main competition), but as #1 picks go he doesn't measure up with most.  Of course the Nets made the right call in selecting him.  Kenyon Martin is also the reason that tanking makes some degree of sense, since you not only have to win the lottery, you have to do so in the right draft. 

And Olynyk can't even start over Amir Johnson and Jerekbo has more starts than Olynyk does this year.  You are greatly overrating KO.  Heck when Horford was out a few games ago it was Jerekbo that got the start not Olynyk. 

[Big333223]

And Olynyk can't even start over Amir Johnson and Jerekbo has more starts than Olynyk does this year.  You are greatly overrating KO.  Heck when Horford was out a few games ago it was Jerekbo that got the start not Olynyk.

I think that has a lot to do with how Brad likes to keep roster continuity. Like when he started Mickey in place of Amir in January. Mickey is obviously not as good as Olynyk, but it kept Olynyk in his same role. Same with Jerebko's starts. If Brad actually thought Jerebko was better, why would be play Olynyk 5 more minutes a game?

[celticsclay]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

You don't grade on players you miss, you grade on the player drafted.  Kelly is no lower than a B as he has performed exactly as you would expect a mid-first rounder to perform.  He is starter-level talent and 6th - 7th guy on a good team.

No you grade players on the actual draft they are drafted in.  If you draft a guy 10th, but in a redraft he would go 5th that is a good selection, even if in some other draft he would go 25th. 

And KO is not the 6th or 7th player on a good team.  He isn't even that on the Celtics and the Celtics aren't a legit contender.

Who do you think is our 7th player? He is actually 6th in minutes per game. It seems like you think he is behind Jerekbro and Mickey or something weird. He is clearly our first big off the bench.

I'd put him behind the 5 starters, Smart and Brown (though I would listen to arguments on Brown since he is just a rookie), which would make him 8th.  I would expect that if he is on the Celtics next year, he will be more like the 9th or 10th best player.

I think most fans would put him ahead of Amir. Both are inconsistent, but KO is better when he is on. Saying Brown is already better than him this year is insane. You really hate the guy!

[celticsclay]

And Olynyk can't even start over Amir Johnson and Jerekbo has more starts than Olynyk does this year.  You are greatly overrating KO.  Heck when Horford was out a few games ago it was Jerekbo that got the start not Olynyk.

I think that has a lot to do with how Brad likes to keep roster continuity. Like when he started Mickey in place of Amir in January. Mickey is obviously not as good as Olynyk, but it kept Olynyk in his same role. Same with Jerebko's starts. If Brad actually thought Jerebko was better, why would be play Olynyk 5 more minutes a game?

Yea this 1000X. These are some strange arguments here.

[IDreamCeltics]

And Olynyk can't even start over Amir Johnson and Jerekbo has more starts than Olynyk does this year.  You are greatly overrating KO.  Heck when Horford was out a few games ago it was Jerekbo that got the start not Olynyk.

I think that has a lot to do with how Brad likes to keep roster continuity. Like when he started Mickey in place of Amir in January. Mickey is obviously not as good as Olynyk, but it kept Olynyk in his same role. Same with Jerebko's starts. If Brad actually thought Jerebko was better, why would be play Olynyk 5 more minutes a game?

Yea this 1000X. These are some strange arguments here.

What's strange about acknowledging that not even the sorcerous Brad Stevens can hide Olynyk in a starting lineup? 

Also, why all the love for Olynyk and none for Amir Johnson? Amir is a better defensive player than Olynyk and has a higher PER (although he does score 2 less points a game) while playing similar minutes.

[Moranis]

Here is hoopshype's redraft from March 7 of this year. 

http://hoopshype.com/2017/03/07/2013-nba-re-draft-the-way-it-should-have-been/#slideIdslide-13

Olynyk is 14th.

Not a bad list.  I'd have Oladipo much lower and Noguira much higher.  Danny gets a B- in hindsight.  Lots of GM's missed a lot of good players in this draft.

You don't grade on players you miss, you grade on the player drafted.  Kelly is no lower than a B as he has performed exactly as you would expect a mid-first rounder to perform.  He is starter-level talent and 6th - 7th guy on a good team.

No you grade players on the actual draft they are drafted in.  If you draft a guy 10th, but in a redraft he would go 5th that is a good selection, even if in some other draft he would go 25th. 

And KO is not the 6th or 7th player on a good team.  He isn't even that on the Celtics and the Celtics aren't a legit contender.

Who do you think is our 7th player? He is actually 6th in minutes per game. It seems like you think he is behind Jerekbro and Mickey or something weird. He is clearly our first big off the bench.

I'd put him behind the 5 starters, Smart and Brown (though I would listen to arguments on Brown since he is just a rookie), which would make him 8th.  I would expect that if he is on the Celtics next year, he will be more like the 9th or 10th best player.

I think most fans would put him ahead of Amir. Both are inconsistent, but KO is better when he is on. Saying Brown is already better than him this year is insane. You really hate the guy!

since Brown got consistent minutes he has been better than KO.

Amir is better than KO and I don't think it is all that close.  KO does only one thing well and that is shoot.  It is great skill to have and guys have had long productive careers for that one skill but it doesn't make you good at basketball, it just makes you a good shootwr.

[Big333223]

since Brown got consistent minutes he has been better than KO.

Amir is better than KO and I don't think it is all that close.  KO does only one thing well and that is shoot.  It is great skill to have and guys have had long productive careers for that one skill but it doesn't make you good at basketball, it just makes you a good shootwr.

Olynyk is  better shooter, better ballhandler, better passer/has better court vision, better rebounder on the defensive side, and I think he's just as good of a defender. Olynyk is always in the right spot, plays hard and Amir isn't any more athletic.

We might disagree on the defense, but aside from that, what is it that Amir does better than Olynyk?