Baring the fact I Would love to support a french in our futur sucess, I don't think we will extend him. He is a very good player for scoring with regulatity-in regular- and a good teamplayer. A perfect professional. Also a professional who build his carreer in an individual and But mercantil perspective. He won't discount for a team he played 3 month for. Smart could do that. And he isn't enough athletic or have enough volume or intensity. He won't find enough the Way to the basket in the PO where he may not be more than a rotational shooter with a production depending only about his %... Defensively he is individualy below average for a W or for a G. Still smart colectively. He is the kind of player who can be usefull to an average offensive team, scoring à lot for them. That's kind of player who get s paid.It is his big contract.
We want to be more than a team that overpay a good 6men or so. And Fournier isn't the post of our needs. Our futur at PG and C is unclear. We may wait to give this money to Timelord and hopefully to Smart next summer. I trust Smart better to complete a team of BEAL-BROWN-TATUM-HORFORD. Or in a dream scenario in 1half or 2 years a big 3 with Jokic or Embid... And we must develop Langford and Nesmith who will have a role to complement our future big3....
So the 2/3 Hayward TPE has been lost for nothing. Easy to say but it was time to move on last year TD when we had a chance. With the full Hayward TPE we could have overpay Lowry for 1 or 1+1Y giving maybe the 14th to Toronto. Don't like the last Danny move and for now neither that much CBS first one. Would be intrigued if we resign Evan.
Fun fact, Fournier's contract wouldn't impede us from extending Timelord and Smart. If you're thinking of a future in which Beal is here or Jokic or Embiid, Smart won't be part of the equation unless they're traded for... and guess what you need to do to make a trade happen? Assets and players who can be traded, so that's where Fournier would come in (or someone else and we keep Fournier).
But if you're saving money in order to sign Beal, Jokic or Embiid, which are all in the end longshots, Smart, et al. won't be part of the team... we won't have the cap space for it. At least not with Beal, haven't crunched the numbers for the 2023 free-agency... in the meantime if you don't put competent teams together, you're wasting Brown's and Tatum's time, and they're going to bolt not long after.
Some food for thought.
Yes I didn't realized Smart is UFA next year. But, stop me if I am wrong, but if we cut Grant and Edwards (or even Langford) and find à team to absorb Horfords contract before 2022 FA, we only have 68 M garenty. That give us 45M to sign Beal (like a friendly 4Y/130 begening at 30) and Smart (4Y/70 b at 15) then extend Timelord with BR if healthy. Complete with quality vet min MLE and maybe à ST with Fournier TPE. I think there is a path to have Beal and Smart.
And it isn't a good sign a player in the idea to trade him. Waiting a discount from him is absurd for me and an overpayed contract, which he could look in being our mid pack level team 6th, isn't a good chip.
Let's work with some numbers, and keep in mind that we're working with 2022-2023 projections. Let's also keep in mind that our 1st round rookie contracts become guaranteed this October if we pick-up their team options, and I would think we will for most if not of them... so that's a lot of potential players that need to get dumped. So let's work some scenarios.
Assuming a $115.7M salary cap and somewhere around $40.5M in max salary:
1. Keep Tatum and Brown on salary, that means renouncing rights to all our free-agents, draft picks, TPE's and cap exceptions, and successful dump of others (we don't know what that will cost us): $48 million cap available. So in this scenario it seems we have room to give the max salary and keep Langford and Nesmith.
2. Similar scenario, but we can't dump Horford, so we cut him before it becomes guaranteed: $34.7M we can offer Beal. We already talking about Beal accepting a paycut and a more depleted roster.
3. We keep Horford, dump everyone else: yeah, I don't think that's going to work.
4. We successfully dump Horford, what does it give us? About $29.7M, so we're talking about a further pay cut but retaining some of our end of bench players (no Smart/Fournier, etc.)... basically our developing players. We dump Grant and Edwards, we have about $34M to offer and so on. This number is further complicated because we have Robert Williams restricted free-agency, which complicates how much of a cap-hold he may represent. So it's probably about $4 million less cap space than the figures mentioned, or write him off entirely if he signs an offer sheet because that probably put us quite a bit off the money and I think he could potentially get paid quite a bit. Beal would still have to be willing to accept a pay cut... and no rookies and exceptions.
So as you can see, either we successfully deplete our roster completely to be able to offer max money or we'll have to assume that Beal can only be brought if he accepts a pay cut in most scenarios.
I'm not sure if bringing Beal is worth all that honestly. Could be that I'm not as high on Beal as some others, but I don't think Beal + Tatum + Brown and an incomplete roster helps us all that much than the alternative. We'll see.
Edit: In the 4th scenario, using Robert's potential cap hold of $10,985,928 would change the figures to $24.2M and $28.5M respectively for both figures used above. So, quite a bit of a pay cut with Robert still around and without factoring an offer sheet.
Topic: What to Do with Evan Fournier? (Read 5771 times)