NBC Sports Boston Kemba Ideas

[Big333223]

Some of the Kemba discussion has swung way too far in the direction of him not being worth anything.

Despite coming back from injury, he finished the season with averages of 19-5-4 with an eFG% over .500. He's not 36, he's 31. His contact is too big but it's not one of the ten biggest contracts in the league and it only has 2 years left, which means after this season, it potentially becomes an asset as an expiring.

His contract is definitely a problem but he's still a starter-caliber NBA player. The idea that Boston would have to attache a first rounder just to give him to New York strikes me as... idiotic.

[Tr1boy]

Ideas suggested by some guy named Darren Hartwell, who clearly doesn't understand the value of first rounders.

1. New York Knicks

Celtics receive: Nothing

Knicks receive: Kemba Walker, Celtics' 2022 first-round pick (lottery protected); Celtics' 2025 first-round pick (top-5 protected)

2. Dallas Mavericks

Celtics receive: Kristaps Porzingis

Mavericks receive: Kemba Walker, Celtics' 2022 first-round pick (lottery protected)

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

Celtics receive: Al Horford

Mavericks receive: Kemba Walker, Celtics' 2022 first-round pick (lottery protected)

4. Chicago Bulls

Celtics receive: Thaddeus Young, Al-Farouq Aminu, Tomas Satoransky

Bulls receive: Kemba Walker, Celtics' 2022 first-round pick (lottery protected); Celtics' 2025 first-round pick (top-5 protected)

5. Los Angeles Clippers

Celtics receive: Patrick Beverley, Luke Kennard, Terance Mann

Clippers receive: Kemba Walker, Celtics' 2022 first-round pick (lottery protected)

https://sports.yahoo.com/kemba-walker-trade-five-hypothetical-150442455.html

I like #5 the best

Horford is probably not going to return.  Not only was Ainge unhappy but also Wyc is my guess.

Knicks not sending anything in return...not thanks

All the other trades have to give up an extra 1st. So no

[bdm860]

Despite coming back from injury, he finished ... with an eFG% over .500.

I like Kemba, but this is not a positive stat for him.  It's below league average (53.8%).

According to NBA.com, Kemba's 51.4% eFG% was 306 out of 535 players this season.

Controlling for only guards he was 130 out of 278.

Controlling for only guards who played at least 30 games and averaged 10 FGA per game, he was 42 out of 76.

[Big333223]

I'd actually love to have Horford back as a backup big if OKC buys him out or something. Him and Thompson sharing backup big duty behind Timelord would be ideal but I don't want to pay him that contract for that role. And the C's probably couldn't make that work anyway.

But it'd be great to have him around again.

[BruceBanner18]

Despite coming back from injury, he finished ... with an eFG% over .500.

I like Kemba, but this is not a positive stat for him.  It's below league average (53.8%).

According to NBA.com, Kemba's 51.4% eFG% was 306 out of 535 players this season.

Controlling for only guards he was 130 out of 278.

Controlling for only guards who played at least 30 games and averaged 10 FGA per game, he was 42 out of 76.

This is a little disingenuous. His eFG% rose steadily throughout the season.

Pre All-Star 48%
Post All Star 54.3%
April 55.3%
May 61.4%

[Big333223]

Despite coming back from injury, he finished ... with an eFG% over .500.

I like Kemba, but this is not a positive stat for him.  It's below league average (53.8%).

According to NBA.com, Kemba's 51.4% eFG% was 306 out of 535 players this season.

Controlling for only guards he was 130 out of 278.

Controlling for only guards who played at least 30 games and averaged 10 FGA per game, he was 42 out of 76.

This is a little disingenuous. His eFG% rose steadily throughout the season.

Pre All-Star 48%
Post All Star 54.3%
April 55.3%
May 61.4%

TP

And even if he hadn't steadily improved, his efficiency numbers on the season are middle of the pack and his counting were stats above average. The idea that that player has to have picks attached just to dump him his nonsense.

[footey]

terrible idea to trade kemba during off-season, when other teams will beat down price by pointing out recent injury. Let him fully re-hab and return to strength going into next season. Revisit at trade deadline during next season. He should have more trade value then, assuming he gets healthier, and also because his contract will have less amount left on it.

[PhoSita]

I would not include a 1st round pick to dump Kemba unless I'm getting back a player who I think makes a real positive difference for the Celts' ability to compete in the short term.

Some of these trade ideas have the Celts giving up multiple 1st rounders (not gonna happen), or taking back bad contracts with extra years on them.

If those are the options, I think the Celts will just keep Kemba until his contract expires.


I do like the Horford idea.  Bringing Horford back would help the team in some key ways, I think, and I would be OK with the team giving up a pick to do that.


Kristaps .... no thanks.


That Bulls idea is heinous.  Two first round picks to get a trio of veteran role players?

[tonydelk]

None of these deals make the C's better.  Depending on Porzingas medicals that may be the only deal worth doing.  aging injured star for younger injured star.  Kemba had a decent year when he played.  Getting hurt in the playoffs lowered his value more then the game management.  The only teams that will trade for Kemba are teams that can't lure a star, desperate teams like Chicago and maybe the Lakers.  The only way Kemba will be moved is if it makes the C's better.  None of those deals make the team better.  I'm ok with a risk like Kemba for Wall, Kemba for Prozingas type of deals.  Those are the only types that can possible move the needle if the C's strike gold.  Otherwise these types of deals do nothing for the C's.

[bdm860]

Despite coming back from injury, he finished ... with an eFG% over .500.

I like Kemba, but this is not a positive stat for him.  It's below league average (53.8%).

According to NBA.com, Kemba's 51.4% eFG% was 306 out of 535 players this season.

Controlling for only guards he was 130 out of 278.

Controlling for only guards who played at least 30 games and averaged 10 FGA per game, he was 42 out of 76.

This is a little disingenuous. His eFG% rose steadily throughout the season.

Pre All-Star 48%
Post All Star 54.3%
April 55.3%
May 61.4%

That's not at all disingenuous. 

51.4% in totality is not good.  It's below average.

If the claim is Kemba improved throughout the year, that's different, but that wasn't the point that was made.

But if you want to talk about disingenuous let's talk about using May stats of only 4 games and trying to use it for a trend.  Or ignoring the sharp nose dive that trend took with the 3 May playoff games where his eFG% was 35.4%.  Or ignoring his career trend of 52.7%, 51.6%, 51.1%, and 52.6% since Kemba became an All-Star in '17 and trying to act like his 51.4% this year is some outlier?

So next year, best case scenario, do you think Kemba will have an eFG% that will be closer to his 2021 total season average, or one that will follow the monthly trend you provided?  If it's the former, then how is it disingenuous?



Lol you'll got me riled up.  I'm not even a big fan of eFG%, I'd rather see TS% (where Kemba, though still below average this year, is closer to average, and has usually been above average the last few years).

Big333223 tried to spin 51.4% eFG% as a positive, it is not.  Nothing disingenuous about calling that out.  Though I do agree with Big333223 overall sentiment (Kemba still good).  It's like discussing Marcus Smart, he has a lot of positive traits, but if you try to list one of them as his 3P%, I'm going to call it out as it's not a stat to give when trying to explain how good he is.

[Big333223]

Big333223 tried to spin 51.4% eFG% as a positive, it is not.  Nothing disingenuous about calling that out.  Though I do agree with Big333223 overall sentiment (Kemba still good).  It's like discussing Marcus Smart, he has a lot of positive traits, but if you try to list one of them as his 3P%, I'm going to call it out as it's not a stat to give when trying to explain how good he is.

If not a positive, it's not a negative. It's about average. And, taken in context, makes the idea that a pick has to be added just to dump him for nothing a ridiculous idea.

That's all I'm saying.

[Big333223]

I would not include a 1st round pick to dump Kemba unless I'm getting back a player who I think makes a real positive difference for the Celts' ability to compete in the short term.

I have no clue how realistic these names are but Lonzo Ball, Dejaunte Murrary, and Malcolm Brogdon are guys that I would send out a pick along with Kemba to get, I think.

[td450]

None of these deals make the C's better.  Depending on Porzingas medicals that may be the only deal worth doing.  aging injured star for younger injured star.  Kemba had a decent year when he played.  Getting hurt in the playoffs lowered his value more then the game management.  The only teams that will trade for Kemba are teams that can't lure a star, desperate teams like Chicago and maybe the Lakers.  The only way Kemba will be moved is if it makes the C's better.  None of those deals make the team better.  I'm ok with a risk like Kemba for Wall, Kemba for Prozingas type of deals.  Those are the only types that can possible move the needle if the C's strike gold.  Otherwise these types of deals do nothing for the C's.

The Chicago deal would make us better. I would do that deal. Horford would make us better . The Porzingas deal might work the best, but it could also work out the worst.

If some of the posters are correct, then Kemba has some value and could be moved for at least some asset. The C's do have a bit of a squeeze between Kemba, Fournier and Smart. Its hard to see them just ponying up the money for all three when the evidence doesn't suggest that we have enough passing to make it work.

I can't imagine Stevens takes over and does nothing. So, I think its likely we are going to find out what the truth is.

[Vermont Green]

I think this talk around Kemba efficiency, however you want to measure it, is well placed.  He is the 3rd option on the Celtics after a career of being the first option.  The first option is expected to have lower efficiency due to taking more late shot clock shots and such.  Kemba's historical efficiency is not that bad but if he can tick it up just a little, I think it will make a big difference relative to his role on the Celtics.

TS% and EFG% are both fine but I look at an even simpler ratio.  I look at points per attempted FG.  Kemba last season had 19.3 pts on 15.7 shots.  That included 3.0/8.3 3pt.  If he can make just one more 3 every other game, this becomes 3.5 made per game and if he can add 1 or 2 more FT per game, that alone puts his efficiency into the upper tier over being middle of the pack.

As to league value, he is still a 20 ppg player (only about 10% of leagues scores 20 pts or more).  5 assists per game puts him in the top 50 (upper 11%).  I think he played enough to establish a sufficient level of durability.  I think there are teams that would like to have Kemba, not a ton, but some fits.  He may have the max value at the trade deadline but I can't see the Celtics being sellers.  I think if they don't trade him in the off season, and unless the team really bombs, they will play him out.

Something along the line of the LAC or CHI trades are most likely in my mind.  The Knicks don't really have much to send back so why bother (I see no need to just dump him).  I have no interest in Horford and don't see why OKC would want Kemba.  I am intrigued by the potential for a Porzingis trade.  We really need a big, may be worth the chance.  He actually was able to average 20 ppg himself and get nearly 9 rebs.  That is about Christian Wood level.  And that is in a season where he was supposed to be fighting injuries (which he likely will be doing at some level for the rest of his career).

[86MaxwellSmart]

Manager to Bob Uecker: We have traded you

Bob Uecker: I have 2 questions, who did you get for me and did it make our team better?

Manager: we got nobody, and Yes it made our team better.