Author Topic: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma  (Read 11547 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #75 on: May 11, 2021, 09:31:52 AM »

Online Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
Quote
It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.
Glad to see some more people are coming around to my way of thinking.

I also don't think Boston beats Toronto if the games were actually on home floors as Boston doesn't win in Toronto very often at all.  The bubble changed that dynamic a great deal.  Toronto and Boston were very closely matched such that I think home court might have actually made a difference, whereas on the neutral site Boston ended up with a slight edge.  It wasn't a fluke that Boston won, but as you say, it also doesn't mean Boston was a contender, because they quite simply were not.   
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #76 on: May 11, 2021, 12:53:42 PM »

Online Kernewek

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3793
  • Tommy Points: 262
  • International Superstar
Quote
It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.
Glad to see some more people are coming around to my way of thinking.

I also don't think Boston beats Toronto if the games were actually on home floors as Boston doesn't win in Toronto very often at all.  The bubble changed that dynamic a great deal.  Toronto and Boston were very closely matched such that I think home court might have actually made a difference, whereas on the neutral site Boston ended up with a slight edge.  It wasn't a fluke that Boston won, but as you say, it also doesn't mean Boston was a contender, because they quite simply were not.

You know, this didn't seem to be a big deal, but I did some digging, and found something to file in the 'tangentially interesting' pile:

We're 6-11 against Toronto in the regular season over the last 5 years (starting '15-'16), but are 1-7 in Toronto, with our sole win over that span coming in Christmas 2019:
https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_raptors_game_log_season.htm
Man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time.

But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons.

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #77 on: May 11, 2021, 12:58:01 PM »

Online Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
Quote
It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.
Glad to see some more people are coming around to my way of thinking.

I also don't think Boston beats Toronto if the games were actually on home floors as Boston doesn't win in Toronto very often at all.  The bubble changed that dynamic a great deal.  Toronto and Boston were very closely matched such that I think home court might have actually made a difference, whereas on the neutral site Boston ended up with a slight edge.  It wasn't a fluke that Boston won, but as you say, it also doesn't mean Boston was a contender, because they quite simply were not.

You know, this didn't seem to be a big deal, but I did some digging, and found something to file in the 'tangentially interesting' pile:

We're 6-11 against Toronto in the regular season over the last 5 years (starting '15-'16), but are 1-7 in Toronto, with our sole win over that span coming in Christmas 2019:
https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_raptors_game_log_season.htm
I knew that, which is why I said it.  It was an often overlooked fact on this site when discussing that series last year.  The fact that Boston didn't have to go to Toronto 4 times was a huge factor in that series.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #78 on: May 11, 2021, 12:59:49 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Quote
It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.

This is a non-sequitur.  I didn't argue at any point that last year's team was a contender.

That's an entirely different matter from saying that last year's team was competitive, that the playoff run was not a fluke, and that it therefore reasonably created expectations that the team would also be competitive this season.


Just to give a sense of how big a difference we've seen this year:

Over the course of the regular season, bubble, and playoffs last season, Kemba, Smart, Tatum, and Brown spent 567 minutes on the floor together without Gordon Hayward.

In those minutes, the Celtics scored 111 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 105 points per 100 possessions.  That's a +6 differential, which is quite good.

This season, those same four players have shared the floor in 292 minutes.  During those minutes, they've scored 122 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 125 points per 100 possessions, which is a -3 differential. 


That's a net change of -9 points per 100 possessions.  They've gone from quite good to quite bad.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2021, 01:10:25 PM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #79 on: May 11, 2021, 01:02:20 PM »

Offline RJ87

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11685
  • Tommy Points: 1406
  • Let's Go Celtics!
If you're the Celtics front office, how do you really judge what this team is to make changes or go forward?


I definitely agree that there are a lot of caveats for this season.  The Celts have been hit hard by injuries and COVID.  That plus a very young roster has made it virtually impossible for them to live up to expectations.

With that said, I could see a certain perspective of the team which is:

"You got 60+ games from Tatum playing at an All-NBA type level, you got about 60 games from Jaylen Brown playing at an All-Star level; those guys averaged over 50 points per game combined.  You had the same coach who got you to the ECF 3 of the last 4 seasons.  You still had Marcus Smart.  Kemba Walker missed a lot of time but still rounded into form by the end of the season and averaged around 19 a game.  Robert Williams broke out. Payton Pritchard was better than expected.  Even Aaron Nesmith was producing by the last month of the season.  You added Evan Fournier midway through the season. 

How did you barely win half your games?"

and then:

"How in the world does a team with two All-Star caliber 25+ ppg scorers on the wing, with deep playoff experience, get bounced in the play-in / Round 1?"


More than any of that, I think the biggest takeaway about this team from this season will be the way they made a habit of getting down big in the 1st half of games, and then tried to make up for lost time in the second half.  This is hardly like those early Brad Stevens teams that were not nearly talented enough to be truly competitive, but played hard and tried to get by on hustle, defense, forcing turnovers, etc.  This team let a lot of games get away from them before they ever started playing with energy and focus.  I imagine ownership is not going to feel very good about that.

I think there's a bit more optimism to be found than this though because I the toughest part - finding young guys to build around - is done. But Ainge and co need to face some harsh realities and be a bit more bold at correcting flaws. This year's team reminds me a ton of last year's Philly team: a team who lost a key player (Butler for them, Hayward for us) but still had high expectations coming into the year because they had two young stars playing at an All-Star level, but ultimately were doomed by the supporting cast being a clunkier fit than expected. Morey came in and did what needed to be done in terms of reshaping that team to better fit around Embiid and Simmons. Celtics management needs to take a similar approach and really evaluate every player on this roster and how they fit in relation to Tatum and Brown.
2021 Houston Rockets
PG: Kyrie Irving/Patty Mills/Jalen Brunson
SG: OG Anunoby/Norman Powell/Matisse Thybulle
SF: Gordon Hayward/Demar Derozan
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Robert Covington
C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #80 on: May 11, 2021, 10:22:52 PM »

Offline keevsnick

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5515
  • Tommy Points: 549

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #81 on: May 12, 2021, 02:00:45 AM »

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15739
  • Tommy Points: 1386
Quote
It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.
Glad to see some more people are coming around to my way of thinking.

I also don't think Boston beats Toronto if the games were actually on home floors as Boston doesn't win in Toronto very often at all.  The bubble changed that dynamic a great deal.  Toronto and Boston were very closely matched such that I think home court might have actually made a difference, whereas on the neutral site Boston ended up with a slight edge.  It wasn't a fluke that Boston won, but as you say, it also doesn't mean Boston was a contender, because they quite simply were not.

You know, this didn't seem to be a big deal, but I did some digging, and found something to file in the 'tangentially interesting' pile:

We're 6-11 against Toronto in the regular season over the last 5 years (starting '15-'16), but are 1-7 in Toronto, with our sole win over that span coming in Christmas 2019:
https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_raptors_game_log_season.htm

We literally have one player from
The 2015-2016 team on our roster (smart). Heck one of our starters from that team is a coach on our team now. Only 5 players from that team are even still in the league! The next year is not very different as the only player still on our team besides smart was rookie jaylen brown? How is this relevant at all? I don’t get how being negative over accomplishments last year by using our matchups from 4 and 5 seasons ago with helps us understand this team at all/proves anything.  We have had a crap and disappointing year but this is just getting into nonsense.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2021, 02:17:51 AM by celticsclay »

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #82 on: May 12, 2021, 02:19:50 AM »

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15739
  • Tommy Points: 1386
If you're the Celtics front office, how do you really judge what this team is to make changes or go forward?


I definitely agree that there are a lot of caveats for this season.  The Celts have been hit hard by injuries and COVID.  That plus a very young roster has made it virtually impossible for them to live up to expectations.

With that said, I could see a certain perspective of the team which is:

"You got 60+ games from Tatum playing at an All-NBA type level, you got about 60 games from Jaylen Brown playing at an All-Star level; those guys averaged over 50 points per game combined.  You had the same coach who got you to the ECF 3 of the last 4 seasons.  You still had Marcus Smart.  Kemba Walker missed a lot of time but still rounded into form by the end of the season and averaged around 19 a game.  Robert Williams broke out. Payton Pritchard was better than expected.  Even Aaron Nesmith was producing by the last month of the season.  You added Evan Fournier midway through the season. 

How did you barely win half your games?"

and then:

"How in the world does a team with two All-Star caliber 25+ ppg scorers on the wing, with deep playoff experience, get bounced in the play-in / Round 1?"


More than any of that, I think the biggest takeaway about this team from this season will be the way they made a habit of getting down big in the 1st half of games, and then tried to make up for lost time in the second half.  This is hardly like those early Brad Stevens teams that were not nearly talented enough to be truly competitive, but played hard and tried to get by on hustle, defense, forcing turnovers, etc.  This team let a lot of games get away from them before they ever started playing with energy and focus.  I imagine ownership is not going to feel very good about that.

I think there's a bit more optimism to be found than this though because I the toughest part - finding young guys to build around - is done. But Ainge and co need to face some harsh realities and be a bit more bold at correcting flaws. This year's team reminds me a ton of last year's Philly team: a team who lost a key player (Butler for them, Hayward for us) but still had high expectations coming into the year because they had two young stars playing at an All-Star level, but ultimately were doomed by the supporting cast being a clunkier fit than expected. Morey came in and did what needed to be done in terms of reshaping that team to better fit around Embiid and Simmons. Celtics management needs to take a similar approach and really evaluate every player on this roster and how they fit in relation to Tatum and Brown.

I think this is a fair and reasonable approach.

Re: The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma
« Reply #83 on: May 12, 2021, 03:53:43 AM »

Online Kernewek

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3793
  • Tommy Points: 262
  • International Superstar
Quote
It was not a fluke.

It wasn't a sign that they were a contender, either.  This year's team is probably closer to last year's team than last year's team was to being a championship team.
Glad to see some more people are coming around to my way of thinking.

I also don't think Boston beats Toronto if the games were actually on home floors as Boston doesn't win in Toronto very often at all.  The bubble changed that dynamic a great deal.  Toronto and Boston were very closely matched such that I think home court might have actually made a difference, whereas on the neutral site Boston ended up with a slight edge.  It wasn't a fluke that Boston won, but as you say, it also doesn't mean Boston was a contender, because they quite simply were not.

You know, this didn't seem to be a big deal, but I did some digging, and found something to file in the 'tangentially interesting' pile:

We're 6-11 against Toronto in the regular season over the last 5 years (starting '15-'16), but are 1-7 in Toronto, with our sole win over that span coming in Christmas 2019:
https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_raptors_game_log_season.htm

We literally have one player from
The 2015-2016 team on our roster (smart). Heck one of our starters from that team is a coach on our team now. Only 5 players from that team are even still in the league! The next year is not very different as the only player still on our team besides smart was rookie jaylen brown? How is this relevant at all? I don’t get how being negative over accomplishments last year by using our matchups from 4 and 5 seasons ago with helps us understand this team at all/proves anything.  We have had a crap and disappointing year but this is just getting into nonsense.

Another way to phrase it would be to say that the Celtics haven’t lost in Toronto since Christmas 2019  :)

I don’t think it’s particularly relevant, which would be why I described it as tangentially interesting.
Man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time.

But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons.