I can't see any way they trade Davis this year as they absolutely want to offer him the supermax and see what he does. If he turns that down, then they just move him in July, but there is no way they don't get to the summer. The only caveat would be some team throws everything at them such that they just can't turn it down - like say the Lakers give them all 4 young players and take back Moore or some other bad contract (by including KCP in the trade). I think they would be hard pressed to turn down Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, and Hart. But I can't see the Lakers doing that so I don't think it is a realistic option.
I doubt Pels would entertain trading without first analyzing Boston offer, which can’t be made until season’s end. That’s how a smart GM drives the price up. Plus everything equal between Boston offer and Laker offer, teams generally prefer trading outside conference. Boston could match that offer easily plus trump it with the bevy of draft picks in its arsenal. Only way I see Lakers winning this is if AD says he does not want to be traded to Boston.
Boston could not easily trump that offer. It is arguable they couldn't even beat that depending on a team's thoughts on the various young players. And right now, Boston doesn't have a single lottery pick next summer and if everything goes wrong could have 2 very late 1st's (its own and Philly's) plus the future unknown of Memphis and LAC (and LA could end up a 2nd rounder).
Any trade package is only as good as the best player being offered. Celtics would feature Tatum. What player on LA would be considered by rational GM just as good or better than Tatum? Ingram? Ball? Kuzma? The draft picks are gravy, something that the Celtics have a lot more of than the Lakers.
Tatum is a better prospect then those guys, but I'm not sure he is so much better a prospect than Kuzma or Ingram to make up for the fact that there are 2 of them (thus giving the Pelicans 2 cracks at a player living up to the potential), especially with Ball and Hart thrown in. Even with Brown (who is Boston's only other non-draft pick asset), I don't know that Boston's 2 is better than the Los Angeles 4. Now if the Sacramento pick lands at 2 or 3, Memphis is in the back half of the top 10, LAC is 15, and Boston's pick in the late 20's, that would change things a great deal as that provides some high level draft capital, but at this point that draft capital is a huge unknown.
Yes, sure, I would assume that in addition to Tatum, Boston would have to offer Brown, maybe Smart, the 3-4 draft picks, and maybe even Williams, plus whatever salary filler would be needed. I'd like to also include Rozier but due to expiring can't make that work unless sign and trade, and even that would only count for half his salary.
I think we both agree that it is highly unlikely a trade would occur until after the season.
Tatum, Brown, Smart, Williams, and 3-4 picks?
That would probably be the largest price to pay for a player, maybe ever.
Looking at recent past trade packages for great players (KG, CP3, PG13, Harden, Howard, etc.), none seem to really come close to that. Granted they were either past their peak or not as good as AD, but it’ll be interesting if this really becomes a bidding war between two rivals and we see a package like this.
I’d say LeBron and AD would be a better twosome than KD and Curry, while AD here in Boston would make us favorites.
Unless Lakers offer is far and away better (which I don’t think it can be if we include Tatum, he’s clearly the best prospect by far), if they are remotely close I could see NOP wanting him out of the West, or just not on the Lakers.
Just like Danny loaded up for a couple years to pounce on a guy like KG when he became available, I don’t think he will be gunshy going after AD. As long as he makes it past the deadline, he will use his assets wisely.