2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[nickagneta]

I think I am going Dallas here. Other than Rose, Howard and Haslam(who at this point in his career shouldn't be getting big minutes) there's no really good players with any type of playoff experience on the OKC side. And I am not crazy about the quality of the players after Rose and Howard.

Dallas on the other hand is loaded with experience, playoff experience and much better quality talent depth. Nash on Rose is a mismatch but one I think Dallas can live with because they have the talent to shut the rest of the team down and just try to make Rose beat them. Also, Nash with Deng and Smith can push the pace and make Rose have to expend major energy getting back on defense.

I liked Houston's ability to match up against Dallas but I really don't think the Thunder have enough elsewhere other than Rose to take this series. And has been stated, as bad a defender as Big Al is, and he is not a good defender, he does well against guys much like him who are big and physical and spend almost all the time down low. Howard can't pull Big Al out and take advantage of Al's bad lateral movement and bad defensive footwork because he can't make shots outside of 5 feet. That mitigates Howard's overall effect. Howard will get his 20 and 14 but Jefferson will get his 18 and 12.

Overall I just can't see Rose and the collection of young inexperienced talent left over in OKC overcoming what Nash, Deng, Smith, Hansbrough, Gordon, Neal and Kaman bring to the table if the Howard/Jefferson matchup is fairly even.

[KCattheStripe]

I wouldn't put Gordon on Rose because I think Shumpert would torch Nash. You might be able to get me to buy Nash on Buddinger.

[Lucky17]

I'm considering putting Shumpert on Steve Nash at times to disrupt Dallas' half court set. Thoughts?

[fitzhickey]

I wouldn't put Gordon on Rose because I think Shumpert would torch Nash. You might be able to get me to buy Nash on Buddinger.

yeah Deng wouldn't be half bad on Rose IMO
Nash wouldn't really need to defend playing on Budinger

[Lucky17]

I would probably play Gordon on Rose. all shump can do is dunk.

Shot over 40% in the playoffs from three last season. Ignore Shump at your peril.

Chase Budinger shot 40% from three in his last full season.

Both of these guys can stick jumpers if left alone. Given 25-30 minutes a night, both will get 10 points for me without having plays scripted for them.

[indeedproceed]

Okay, maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't get Dallas.

40 year old Steve Nash, coming off of his hands-down worst NBA season of the now not-so-new millennium. Already a defensive liability, but now, nowhere near the offensive weapon he was 3 years ago, at the tender age of 35.

Al Jefferson, who nobody has ever thought could guide a team to the playoffs is now a viable defensive center?

Josh Smith (bad shot selection), Luol Deng (can't shoot), Eric Gordon (both, kinda) are the perimeter players?

I don't get it.

[Roy H.]

I wouldn't put Gordon on Rose because I think Shumpert would torch Nash. You might be able to get me to buy Nash on Buddinger.

I'm not sure that Shumpert can really torch anybody. 

Shumpert is primarily a perimeter player.  He only shot 39.5% on inside shots last year, which might be the lowest percentage of any player I've ever seen.

Words can't express how horrific that number is.  Heck, the guy only converted 40% of his dunk attempts!! 

Nash is fine defending Shumpert on the perimeter, and he doesn't have to worry at all about penetration.

[indeedproceed]

I'm considering putting Shumpert on Steve Nash at times to disrupt Dallas' half court set. Thoughts?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=nashst01&p2=rosede01

Why? Nash has had a pretty tough draw against Rose's teams historically, only 1 20 pt game, and a 38% shooter flat. Steve Nash usually shoots better than that from 3 historically. Rose is a good matchup there.

[Lucky17]

Also, in this series, I am not so worried about the matchups in the backcourt. Nothing like an Iguodala to deal with at SG. This will allow me to bring in Belinelli and Gordon for more scoring/shooting when needed. Even so, I don't think OKC will struggle to put up points.

I think the OKC team defense, especially on the perimeter, is going to cause serious problems for Dallas.

[Lucky17]

I'm considering putting Shumpert on Steve Nash at times to disrupt Dallas' half court set. Thoughts?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=nashst01&p2=rosede01

Why? Nash has had a pretty tough draw against Rose's teams historically, only 1 20 pt game, and a 38% shooter flat. Steve Nash usually shoots better than that from 3 historically. Rose is a good matchup there.

Just to provide a different look here and there. Shump's length and physicality versus Rose's quickness.

Either way, Nash is going to have to work pretty hard, both on offense and on defense.

[fitzhickey]

Okay, maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't get Dallas.

40 year old Steve Nash, coming off of his hands-down worst NBA season of the now not-so-new millennium. Already a defensive liability, but now, nowhere near the offensive weapon he was 3 years ago, at the tender age of 35.

Al Jefferson, who nobody has ever thought could guide a team to the playoffs is now a viable defensive center?

Josh Smith (bad shot selection), Luol Deng (can't shoot), Eric Gordon (both, kinda) are the perimeter players?

I don't get it.

Nash- still one of the better playmakers in the league
Big Al- viable defensive option IN THIS MATCHUP
Smith- Nash will keep in check.
Deng- will be getting looks like never before. expect a return to the .400% mark
Gordon- "                                         "

[Lucky17]

I wouldn't put Gordon on Rose because I think Shumpert would torch Nash. You might be able to get me to buy Nash on Buddinger.

I'm not sure that Shumpert can really torch anybody. 

Shumpert is primarily a perimeter player.  He only shot 39.5% on inside shots last year, which might be the lowest percentage of any player I've ever seen.

Words can't express how horrific that number is.  Heck, the guy only converted 40% of his dunk attempts!! 

Nash is fine defending Shumpert on the perimeter, and he doesn't have to worry at all about penetration.

Shumpert on jump shots last season: 52.5% eFG.

Is Steve Nash really going to contest jumpers out to the three point line?

[fitzhickey]

Also, in this series, I am not so worried about the matchups in the backcourt. Nothing like an Iguodala to deal with at SG. This will allow me to bring in Belinelli and Gordon for more scoring/shooting when needed. Even so, I don't think OKC will struggle to put up points.

I think the OKC team defense, especially on the perimeter, is going to cause serious problems for Dallas.

I don't see bellinelli or ben gordon scoring much if anything on Eric Gordon

[Roy H.]

Okay, maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't get Dallas.

40 year old Steve Nash, coming off of his hands-down worst NBA season of the now not-so-new millennium. Already a defensive liability, but now, nowhere near the offensive weapon he was 3 years ago, at the tender age of 35.

Al Jefferson, who nobody has ever thought could guide a team to the playoffs is now a viable defensive center?

Josh Smith (bad shot selection), Luol Deng (can't shoot), Eric Gordon (both, kinda) are the perimeter players?

I don't get it.

I would expect better from one of the more analytical minds on here.  This analysis seems unwilling to go below the surface at all.

Big Al has played Howard very well.  That doesn't mean he's all of a sudden an elite defender, but he defends Howard well.

Just one season ago, Nash led the NBA in assist percentage and was second in the NBA in assists per game.  He was top-5 in terms of shooting efficiency.

Josh Smith has indeed had bad shot selection historically.  Can't argue with that.

Luol Deng isn't a bad shooter.  He was mediocre from outside last year, but for the last five seasons he's been a 36.0% 3PT shooter.

As for Gordon, you drafted him.  He's a career 36.3% 3PT shooter, with a career .506 eFG% and .566 TS%.  To call him a poor shooter with poor shot selection is just incredibly inaccurate.

Thoughts on the trade: Eric Gordon's value lies in asking people to believe in fairies. Personally I think he'll have a great year

Or, see here

Your analysis seems a little bit off here, in my mind.

[Roy H.]

I wouldn't put Gordon on Rose because I think Shumpert would torch Nash. You might be able to get me to buy Nash on Buddinger.

I'm not sure that Shumpert can really torch anybody. 

Shumpert is primarily a perimeter player.  He only shot 39.5% on inside shots last year, which might be the lowest percentage of any player I've ever seen.

Words can't express how horrific that number is.  Heck, the guy only converted 40% of his dunk attempts!! 

Nash is fine defending Shumpert on the perimeter, and he doesn't have to worry at all about penetration.

Shumpert on jump shots last season: 52.5% eFG.

Is Steve Nash really going to contest jumpers out to the three point line?

Why wouldn't he?  Just about any athlete in the NBA can cover the perimeter, if they don't even have to remotely worry about penetration.