2013 CB Draft: Western First Round: Minnesota(1) vs Portland(8)

[nickagneta]

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Tailblazers

Minnesota
Guards: Monta Ellis, Avery Bradley, C.J. Miles, Kyle Korver, Mario Chalmers, Jordan Farmar
Forwards: Lebron James, Serge Ibaka, Shane Battier, Glen Davis, Jae Crowder
Centers: DeAndre Jordan, Greg Stiemsma
Coach: Nate McMillen

Presser: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67440.msg1546544#msg1546544

Portland
Guards: Joe Johnson, Brandon Jennings, Darren Collison, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jordan Crawford
Forwards: Carmelo Anthony, Andrei Kirilenko, Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett, Jason Maxiell
Centers: Andrew Bynum, Enes Kanter, Zaza Pachulia
Coach: Scott Brooks

Presser: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67440.msg1546555#msg1546555


Polls open at 12 noon EST Sept. 9th. Close 11:59:59PM  Sept. 9th. Here are the voting guidelines for this round:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=67476.msg1547496#msg1547496

[dark_lord]

mvp and 2 time lbj.....a different lbj (on the court) than we have seen prior to the two titles.  that factor alone, not to mention i like the supporting cast, makes me think the wolves cruise here.  what do you have to say portland?

[KCattheStripe]

Am I crazy for thinking this one is close if Bynum is healthy?

[dark_lord]

Am I crazy for thinking this one is close if Bynum is healthy?

bynum healthy? cmon bro 

[KCattheStripe]

Am I crazy for thinking this one is close if Bynum is healthy?

bynum healthy? cmon bro 

Like, on the court.

[Roy H.]

Am I crazy for thinking this one is close if Bynum is healthy?

I don't think you're crazy.

Historically, Carmelo has matched Lebron in terms of points when the two are H2H.  With Kirilenko helping to limit James, I think it's very likely you'll see similar results.

I think it's likely that Jennings matches Ellis, as well.

Three through twelve, I think I like riah's team better, especially if Bynum is giving 20 to 24 minutes (which I think is realistic). 

I think I had Portland ranked higher in the regular season, so I don't really consider a Blazers victory to be an upset.  That's the way I'm leaning at this point. 

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Minnesota. Not even close.

[nickagneta]

Minnesota. Not even close.

If Bynum is giving Portland quality minutes come the playoffs, and that's a fairly large if and given their 8th place finish, even more questionable, but if he is, this could be a massive problem for Minny. Maybe the highest scoring team vs the league's best defensive team.

Should be fun to read about. Leaning Minny, for now.

[McHales Pits]

Without completely divulging my gameplan, I just want to make a quick comment regarding why Minnesota should win this matchup.

Portland's roster doesn't mesh well together and the team may struggle to find cohesion with one another. Their primary players are all used to playing with the ball coming through them and there are only so many touches.

Minnesota has a clear alpha-dog, a second banana scorer in Ellis, and quality role players to chip in with points (Ibaka, Korver, Davis, Bradley, Battier) with all-around defense. Not to mention that other than Davis (who is a role player and fully healthy for season opener), Minnesota's roster is fully healthy.

[Fafnir]

I don't think its fair to assume injury status based on regular season voting. You still have to make that call on your own.

I can't think Bynum is giving them more than backup C minutes myself though, probably not even that. I had Portland pretty high though in the regular season voting, I'll have to ponder what I'll vote pretty hard as I didn't anticipate them meeting Minnesota.

[nickagneta]

I don't think its fair to assume injury status based on regular season voting. You still have to make that call on your own.

I don't base injury status on regular season voting. I judge for myself. But in theory if this is the way the league finished, certain conclusions might be drawn from them and one could be that Bynum never got healthy. That's all I am saying.

Me, I don't trust Bynum, but I also think if given a chance to play in the playoffs, he would make that effort and play decent if he did get to play. Still going to need to hear from the teams.

[McHales Pits]

Minnesota Starting Lineup for Round 1 Matchup vs Portland

PG: Monta Ellis
SG: Kyle Korver
SF: LeBron James
PF: Serge Ibaka
C: DeAndre Jordan

The gameplan for the Timberwolves is to force Portland to operate in half-court offense. We will accomplish this by only sending one man to crash the offensive glass (Jordan, Davis, Ibaka) and allow the other four players on the court to drop back in defensive transition. Forcing Portland to play in the half-court will inhibit their overall offense due to their lack of a natural facilitator. Other than Kirilenko, every one of Portland's starters is a high-usage offensive scorer. Riah has pegged Carmelo as the distributor "when he is double-teamed" which means Jennings and Johnson will be standing and waiting for a potential pass to come their way and Bynum will be under the hoop doing the same. Fortunately, I feel confident in LeBron and Battier giving Carmelo a tough effort defensively throughout the series and a double team won't be necessary. This also means that Carmelo's outlets will be covered by Monta, Korver, and Bradley waiting to pick passing lanes and start fast break offense. I envision Portland's offense will be forced into Carmelo-iso-ball which will be overall ineffective to defeat us.

Offensively, I expect the Timberwolves to feature plenty of transitional offense from forced turnovers and missed shots. James can get to the rim at will, Ellis can find seams in the transition-D, and Korver, Battier, Bradley, and Chalmers can run to their spots on the three point line to knock down momentum changing treys. In a half-court set, LeBron or Ellis will be the primary ball-handler. We have spot up shooters, shooters that can come off of screens, pick-and-roll/lob/pop combinations, and we have LeBron James who can instantly create his own offense.

In summation, I think that Minnesota's attention to defense and gameplan to prevent transition baskets will force Portland into a low shooting percentage and inefficient offense. This plays directly into Minnesota's athletic-transition style offense and I expect this series to easily go Minnesota's way.

[fitzhickey]

If, and it's a big if, Bynum showes up to play, Portland could stand a chance.
Minny's D is just too good I'm thinking

[riah32]

As far as coexisting goes as pointed out by Nick:

How many less shots is Joe Johnson and Brandon Jennings supposed to take? When the Big 3 sacrificed their games those three players dropped from 18 shots per game to 14. Joe Johnson is only taking 14.6 shots a game now. Brandon Jennings is only taking 15.6 shots per game.

When the Big Three sacrificed their offense they dropped 3-4 shots per game to get to levels that Johnson is already at and Jennings only one shot per game away from. I don't think it a stretch to think those two would be happy taking 14 shots a game sacrificing a whole .6 and 1.6 shots per game. We aren't talking almost 20-23% of their offense. We are talking a sacrifice of 10% or less of their offense.

Melo, well, Melo will be Melo. But I don't see a problem with the thinking that Bynum, JJ and Jennings would be willing to sacrifice some offense for Melo to be the alpha dog.


Gameplan: Portlands game plan is simply let Lebron get his and stop everybody else. Lebron isn't going to be shut down but Kirlenko will be speding a lot of time on him as well as Melo. Lebron will be seeing some double teams. Can Monte and Lebron coexhist? Minny says Lebron will be spending some time on Melo well that would mean Lebron should get worn down from using energy defensively. Joe Johnson will probably be asked to faciltate some of the offense. I think it would be safe to assume if I got these far Bynum is healthy and even if he isn't my bigs run pretty deep.

What does minny do if Deandre Jordan gets into foul trouble rely on an undersized Glen Davis or Greg Stiemsma?

[Lucky17]

What does minny do if Deandre Jordan gets into foul trouble rely on an undersized Glen Davis or Greg Stiemsma?

Wolves will probably shift Ibaka to C, and probably slide LeBron over to PF.

I prefer Portland's depth at C (Zaza/Kanter) to Minnesota's (Jordan/Stiemsma). I don't think that necessarily shifts the series in Portland's favor, but I do think the Blazers' depth and offensive firepower makes this much more compelling than the average #1 vs. #8 series.