Many GMs have failed with that exact logic. With the NBA's current salary cap situation the smart teams build the end of their bench with cheap late first round picks, 2nd round flyers and min cost FAs. Look at the Spurs roster, the warriors bench (Looney, Bell McCaw) or what DA is currently doing. The Cavs are a prime example of the flawed logic of taking the sure thing and not using the draft pick. This creates a team of aging vets on the bench with ever growing salaries.
It is really important to build talent in order to sustain winning
I call BS on your logic. There are few teams that guys picked late who are gems, most are scrubs. For every Kyle Kuzma and Draymond Green there are like 15 guys who are in the D-league. Green and Kuzma are not the norm they are exceptional outliers.
Looney
Kevin Looney with his 3.1 PPG and 2.6 RPG? Are you sober? Because he is not a not much of an impact player. Bell is a lot better prospect. McCaw is another laughable person with 3.9 PPG and 1.5 RPG.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/looneke01.htmlSince you brought up the word logic, wouldn't a vet produce more than these picks? The answer is yes. It is also the logical thing to try to win when the window is open.
Also, don't worry about a steady stream of youth because we have Trader Danny who traded PP and KG. He won't have a hard time parting ways if he thinks he can set us in the future with our present roster.
Pick# Gms Min Pts Reb Ast Star Solid RoleP DeepB Bust DNP
30 20 250 14.1 5.2 2.6 5% 10% 25% 25% 15% 20%
31 20 146 12.1 4.1 1.9 5% 25% 25% 30% 15%
32 20 152 11.7 4.0 1.6 5% 15% 40% 35% 5%
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccawpa01.htmlAs you can see all your hum drum is much ado about nothing, our pick would have about a 5% chance to be a star, the odds are about one in four that we might fine a role player and the odds are that player will be a deep bench player or bust.
These are not your high drama hyperbole but actual stats. Please not that this sample was a twenty year sample from 1989-2008. The odds are very good that this pick will help the D league more than us.
Logic is concerned with facts and correct reasoning this makes your claiming flawed logic by other GMs something that I am skeptical of in all honesty.