When does the "window" end?

[Fox40Kid]

Hobbs, you are right, I just did a little research and the Celts are owed nothing in the future in terms of draft picks, but do owe the TWolves this year's number first rounder.

[RebusRankin]

I think the window is the next 2 years maybe 3 as the team is currently. Now if we trade for Redd etc, it becomes longer.

[jdpapa3]

Haven't top 50 big men historically held up well over time? I can think of a bunch of them. Garnett does have a lot of mileage because of the straight to NBA thing, but I think he will be productive for many years to come. That jump shot isn't going to go away and neither is that length. His defense on the pick and roll will deteriorate and his rebounding seems to already slightly be declining due to his declining athleticism, but I think he'll remain in the top 20 players for a decent amount of time.

Skinny shooting guards don't have a very good history, but this is Ray Allen we are talking about. The guy is a health freak and doesn't drink beer. If anybody can match what Reggie Miller did in terms of career longevity, it is Ray. The problem here is the salary that he will command when his contract expires. I fear that he will be asking for too much for too long.

I am the most nervous about Pierce. He is a crafty scorer, but it could be tougher and tougher for him to be a take it to the basket guy as his athleticism worsens. One sign of optimism is that he has never really relied on speed, but moreso has been reliant on craftiness and hitting contested shots. He also seems to be an improved shooter. I hope he will take a hometown discount because he wants to finish his career here. He really has an appreciation for history and his place in it. It will truly be a special night when they raise that 34 up to the rafters.

[indeedproceed]

I think the window is the next 2 years maybe 3 as the team is currently. Now if we trade for Redd etc, it becomes longer.

See you think Allen or Pierce are the ones that are going to break down...Im much more worried about Garnett.

[LarBrd33]

Isn't it true that Ray Allen comes off the books during that same off season.  Couldn't you make a splash in the free agent market and possibly sign Allen for low money to come off the bench?

Not really.  Even though Ray comes off our cap, we still won't have any significant amount of cap room, even if we renounce all of our free agents.  See the answer to Question 13, here.

Right.  The real cap room comes when Pierce comes off the cap...conveniently the same summer when Kevin Durant will likely looking to get the hell out of Dodge (or OKC)

That's what my pipe dream is.  Durant.

[Who]

It's impossible to tell. It all depends on how the C's players age - they could last years, or they could bottom out quickly one of these off-seasons.

There's reason for optimism because KG+Ray have kept themselves in excellent shape throughout their careers, and have games that last well as they age. Pierce doesn't rely heavily on his athleticism so he should be able to age fairly well too.

But all players and how they age are largely unknowns. Just because similar players in the past aged well doesn't mean they're guaranteed to.

It could be a long window of opportunity or a short one. In the meantime I'd like Danny Ainge to treat every season as the team's final opportunity to win a title, so whatever opportunities the club does have they end up maximizing.

[Who]

I think one of the biggest keys to how the Celtics retool will come down to the contract extensions that Perk and Rondo command. Those deals will either limit the market, or open the market for the Celtics.

You don't want to screw up and overpay a guy, like Detroit did with Tayshaun Prince. You also don't want to get hemmed in and forced to give up talent like the Nets did with Kenyon Martin. Or pay one of your youngsters so much (Richard Jefferson) that you limit your other options and are forced to let someone go.

I think those two contracts will be the biggest factor in how well the Celtics can rebuild.

[the_Bird]

Everybody complains (with some justification) about KG's playing more and more outside, shooting a lot of jumpers, but I wonder whether that has been a conscious decision on his part in order to minimize the wear and tear on his body.  It may well be that we see mostly KG's "finese" game during the regular season, and a bit more play inside during the postseason, and that's OK if it extends out his playing career by a couple of years.  

With Pierce, you worry about whether he'll lose that first step at some point.  He's such a good all-around player that I think he'll be effective for a long time, but the bread-and-butter of his game is getting that first step and driving the lane.  He's a good shooter, but he's not SUCH a good jump shooter that you want to see him just sitting behind the three point line (the role I can see Ray Allen playing until he's 50).  

Realistically, though, Ray's the guy amonng the Big Three who is most likely to be moved, if Danny does decide to make a change.  I think a lot will depend on how far this group gets in the postseason; they win #18, Ray gets an extension and they go from there.  They flame out in the second round, they may make a change while guys still have value.  But, Pierce is the face of the franchise, he's not getting traded as long as they're competitive.  That'd be like trading Bird; he wasn't going to be the one that went.    KG, even as he inevitably slows down, is the guy who makes everything else click; his focus, energy, and intensity are irreplaceable.  

I love Ray, but it's easier to replace a sweet-shooting 2-guard than either a Pierce or a KG.

[the_Bird]

I think one of the biggest keys to how the Celtics retool will come down to the contract extensions that Perk and Rondo command. Those deals will either limit the market, or open the market for the Celtics.

You don't want to screw up and overpay a guy, like Detroit did with Tayshaun Prince. You also don't want to get hemmed in and forced to give up talent like the Nets did with Kenyon Martin. Or pay one of your youngsters so much (Richard Jefferson) that you limit your other options and are forced to let someone go.

I think those two contracts will be the biggest factor in how well the Celtics can rebuild.

Perk still has another three years on his contract, though, right?  I agree with you regarding Rondo; they clearly want/need to sign him to an extension at the end of the season, but how much?  He's clearly not a max-guy, but he's probably going to command what, $8M - $10M annually (depending on how he finishes the year)?  More?

[Chris]

I think one of the biggest keys to how the Celtics retool will come down to the contract extensions that Perk and Rondo command. Those deals will either limit the market, or open the market for the Celtics.

You don't want to screw up and overpay a guy, like Detroit did with Tayshaun Prince. You also don't want to get hemmed in and forced to give up talent like the Nets did with Kenyon Martin. Or pay one of your youngsters so much (Richard Jefferson) that you limit your other options and are forced to let someone go.

I think those two contracts will be the biggest factor in how well the Celtics can rebuild.

And I would throw Powe into that discussion as well.  Even though he won't get as much as Rondo and Perk, you can't overpay to keep him, especially if he is just going to be a role player.

This is something that I feel confident in Ainge about though.  Although he has made mistakes in the past (Scal), it seems like in the last few years, he has really become very good at managing the cap, and has learned to look ahead (which many GMs in the league have not mastered, and it took him a while to catch on to).  I really don't see him strapping the team with too many bad contracts that will stand in the way of them reloading. 

[Who]

I think one of the biggest keys to how the Celtics retool will come down to the contract extensions that Perk and Rondo command. Those deals will either limit the market, or open the market for the Celtics.

You don't want to screw up and overpay a guy, like Detroit did with Tayshaun Prince. You also don't want to get hemmed in and forced to give up talent like the Nets did with Kenyon Martin. Or pay one of your youngsters so much (Richard Jefferson) that you limit your other options and are forced to let someone go.

I think those two contracts will be the biggest factor in how well the Celtics can rebuild.

Perk still has another three years on his contract, though, right?  I agree with you regarding Rondo; they clearly want/need to sign him to an extension at the end of the season, but how much?  He's clearly not a max-guy, but he's probably going to command what, $8M - $10M annually (depending on how he finishes the year)?  More?

Yes, you're right, Perk has this season and two more after that. His contract ends in 2011 when Pierce's does. KG's contract doesn't expire until 2012. Ray and Rondo in 2010.

[Chris]

I think one of the biggest keys to how the Celtics retool will come down to the contract extensions that Perk and Rondo command. Those deals will either limit the market, or open the market for the Celtics.

You don't want to screw up and overpay a guy, like Detroit did with Tayshaun Prince. You also don't want to get hemmed in and forced to give up talent like the Nets did with Kenyon Martin. Or pay one of your youngsters so much (Richard Jefferson) that you limit your other options and are forced to let someone go.

I think those two contracts will be the biggest factor in how well the Celtics can rebuild.

Perk still has another three years on his contract, though, right?  I agree with you regarding Rondo; they clearly want/need to sign him to an extension at the end of the season, but how much?  He's clearly not a max-guy, but he's probably going to command what, $8M - $10M annually (depending on how he finishes the year)?  More?

Perk's contract ends the same time Pierce's does, but it is likely they will try to sign an extension before the deal runs out, so they could be working on that after next season.

As for Rondo, unless he really makes the leap, I think $8-$10 million is probably right for him.  That is in line with guys like Harris, Heinrich, Ford, and the other second tier younger PG's out there. 

As good as Rondo is, and could be, I think he will always be best suited to be a complimentary player, and a second or third option, so that money would be about right.

Of course this is the NBA, and teams will likely be willing to give him more than that, so I would not be surprised to see him getting overpaid...or even traded.

[RebusRankin]

IP, I see KG being able to play effectively until his late 30's due to his game (less banging, a little more finesse than other bigs), his intelligence and his conditioning.

[guava_wrench]

I wouldn't count on trading Ray for a decent draft pick. Who would do that trade? Teams with good draft picks are going to want him. We also won't get as much as we paid for him since he will be 3 years older.

The only trade option is to a team that wants to unload a longer contract. The economic crisis could be helpful here as smaller market teams look to unload talent they can't afford with shrinking revenue.

[LarBrd33]

I wouldn't count on trading Ray for a decent draft pick. Who would do that trade? Teams with good draft picks are going to want him. We also won't get as much as we paid for him since he will be 3 years older.

The only trade option is to a team that wants to unload a longer contract. The economic crisis could be helpful here as smaller market teams look to unload talent they can't afford with shrinking revenue.

The kind of trade I could see coming up would be like... if the Wizards look like they stink again next year... maybe they decide to dump Gilbert Arenas and the 5 years left on his deal for Ray's expiring contract.   Jamison will be 33 at that point with 3 years left on his deal.   That's the kind of team that will be looking to dump salary.