Tatum and his contribution

[Fafnir]

Jayson is a black hole. Once the ball is in his hands it's a for gone conclusion that he is putting a shot up. When he does actually give up the ball it's only to recalibrate his positioning to again receive the ball to seek another shot. If anyone misses Gordon is Jayson Tatum. Hayward being a much more well rounded basketball player than Jayson puts him in better position to go one on one. 

It's the reason why he routinely doubled and triple teamed, the opposing teams know his ability to pass or dribble out of pressure is suspect.

What are your thoughts on Brown moving the ball? Curious how he fits on the continuum between Jayson and Gordon.

[Fafnir]

FWIW I don't suggest using ESPN's RPM for anything. Its bad.

[Moranis]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team. Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

Again that's a testament to his situational value on the Celtics, not how good he is as a basketball player. On/Off doesn't account for the strength of the units he's mainly playing in, the strength of the opponents he's playing against, the nature of the game when he's on the court (blowout, tight game, etc.) and many other factors. Impact metrics that adjust for such factors such as RPM and APM are much better when it comes to gauging a player's value, and Tatum hasn't been setting the world on fire in this family of +/- stats from what I've seen (I took a look at his RPM on ESPN last season and they weren't anything special).

You know what else wasn't special last year, his +- and on/off numbers (though like this year he had some of the higher ones on the team). 

It is not a coincidence that the best 5-man units for the Celtics this year, all have Tatum in the lineup.  That holds for 4-man, 3-man, and 2-man as well.  Tatum has been the one constant in Boston's most effective units all season long.  He is Boston's most valuable player in the only area that truly matters.

It MIGHT not be a coincidence, but it is certainly possible it is. The sample size on this plus minus is too small, to dependent on who he's playing with, too dependent on who he's playing, too dependent on too many other factors for us to draw any certainty from the numbers yet. I've seen to many games this season where he ends up +10 to 16 but actually played pretty bad for me to put too much stock in his plus minus.

Now all that being said I also dont think he's been as bad as his efficiency numbers would indicate. Some of that is just him missing shots that I think he will indeed make, shots that are within his current ability to make. So basically he's better than his peripheries indicate, but not s good as the plus minus indicates which for a 21.5 year old is good.

best isn't just +-, Tatum has the best net rating on the team (16.5) and is in all of the best Net Rating units as well.  Pretty much any metric you use thus far this year and Tatum is in the best lineups of that metric.  For example, of the 2 man groups with at least 100 minutes, Tatum/Hayward has the best net rating at 22.3.  Tatum/Theis is 20.3.  Tatum/Brown is 19.  Brown/Theis is 4th at 17.8 just ahead of the Walker/Theis unit of 17.7.  Then you get Tatum/Walker at 16.5.  Then Theis/Hayward and Tatum/Smart. 

Tatum is thus in the top 3 2-man groups for net rating.  In fact, the first time you don't have Tatum or Theis in a 2-man group is the pairing of Hayward/Walker which is the 9th best pairing.  The same is true of 3-man groups.  There are 11 3-man groups that have played at least 100 minutes together.  Tatum is the only player in each of the first 4 groups by Net Rating (the top 2 also have Theis).  Smart, who seems to be all the rage on this board of late, doesn't show up until the 6th best 3-man group (with Brown and Tatum).  The trend is similar with 4-man and 5-man groups. 

So in sum, no matter how you look at it, Tatum is the player that is in all of Boston's best and most productive units this year, which in my mind makes him the most valuable player on the team.  By the way, this a similar argument you could have made with Embiid in the Toronto series last year i.e. you look at his stats and he underperformed, yet the Sixers were something like +110 with him on the floor and -125 when he was on the bench.  Sometimes players just have a value that isn't reflective in the raw stats.  I'd argue that Tatum, at least thus far this year, falls into that category. 

[Somebody]

FWIW I don't suggest using ESPN's RPM for anything. Its bad.

Mind explaining on why it's bad aside from having an unknown fornula? It's still noisy, but it's better than raw +/-, and we don't have enough seasons to pull out a more reliable RAPM for Tatum yet.

[Rosco917]

Jayson is a black hole. Once the ball is in his hands it's a for gone conclusion that he is putting a shot up. When he does actually give up the ball it's only to recalibrate his positioning to again receive the ball to seek another shot. If anyone misses Gordon is Jayson Tatum. Hayward being a much more well rounded basketball player than Jayson puts him in better position to go one on one. 

It's the reason why he routinely doubled and triple teamed, the opposing teams know his ability to pass or dribble out of pressure is suspect.

What are your thoughts on Brown moving the ball? Curious how he fits on the continuum between Jayson and Gordon.

I saw Browns development towards the end of last season. (Unfortunately Kyrie didn't, or didn't care to.) Jaylen has developed a nice stop and go move, he's getting into the paint almost at will, but under control now. He gets to the rim and is finding open players too. Brown is no longer predictable. He worked on ball handling and it's paying dividends. He's not Hayward just yet, but he's also not 29 years old. IMO I'd like to see Brown get more opportunities on offense to create for himself and others.

What I hope doesn't happen is he reverts back because Tatum shoots about every time he gets his hands on the ball.
 

[keevsnick]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team. Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

Again that's a testament to his situational value on the Celtics, not how good he is as a basketball player. On/Off doesn't account for the strength of the units he's mainly playing in, the strength of the opponents he's playing against, the nature of the game when he's on the court (blowout, tight game, etc.) and many other factors. Impact metrics that adjust for such factors such as RPM and APM are much better when it comes to gauging a player's value, and Tatum hasn't been setting the world on fire in this family of +/- stats from what I've seen (I took a look at his RPM on ESPN last season and they weren't anything special).

You know what else wasn't special last year, his +- and on/off numbers (though like this year he had some of the higher ones on the team). 

It is not a coincidence that the best 5-man units for the Celtics this year, all have Tatum in the lineup.  That holds for 4-man, 3-man, and 2-man as well.  Tatum has been the one constant in Boston's most effective units all season long.  He is Boston's most valuable player in the only area that truly matters.

It MIGHT not be a coincidence, but it is certainly possible it is. The sample size on this plus minus is too small, to dependent on who he's playing with, too dependent on who he's playing, too dependent on too many other factors for us to draw any certainty from the numbers yet. I've seen to many games this season where he ends up +10 to 16 but actually played pretty bad for me to put too much stock in his plus minus.

Now all that being said I also dont think he's been as bad as his efficiency numbers would indicate. Some of that is just him missing shots that I think he will indeed make, shots that are within his current ability to make. So basically he's better than his peripheries indicate, but not s good as the plus minus indicates which for a 21.5 year old is good.

best isn't just +-, Tatum has the best net rating on the team (16.5) and is in all of the best Net Rating units as well.  Pretty much any metric you use thus far this year and Tatum is in the best lineups of that metric.  For example, of the 2 man groups with at least 100 minutes, Tatum/Hayward has the best net rating at 22.3.  Tatum/Theis is 20.3.  Tatum/Brown is 19.  Brown/Theis is 4th at 17.8 just ahead of the Walker/Theis unit of 17.7.  Then you get Tatum/Walker at 16.5.  Then Theis/Hayward and Tatum/Smart. 

Tatum is thus in the top 3 2-man groups for net rating.  In fact, the first time you don't have Tatum or Theis in a 2-man group is the pairing of Hayward/Walker which is the 9th best pairing.  The same is true of 3-man groups.  There are 11 3-man groups that have played at least 100 minutes together.  Tatum is the only player in each of the first 4 groups by Net Rating (the top 2 also have Theis).  Smart, who seems to be all the rage on this board of late, doesn't show up until the 6th best 3-man group (with Brown and Tatum).  The trend is similar with 4-man and 5-man groups. 

So in sum, no matter how you look at it, Tatum is the player that is in all of Boston's best and most productive units this year, which in my mind makes him the most valuable player on the team.  By the way, this a similr argument you could have made with Embiid in the Toronto series last year i.e. you look at his stats and he underperformed, yet the Sixers were something like +110 with him on the floor and -125 when he was on the bench.  Sometimes players just have a value that isn't reflective in the raw stats.  I'd argue that Tatum, at least thus far this year, falls into that category.

Again all that tells you is that the Celtics have played well when Tatum is one the floor, not that he is the reason for them playing well. Net rating is subject to all the same asterisks we've already covered.  That kind of relationship is extremely sensitive to sample size. The second half of your above bolded statement does not follow from the first half, it could be true but it doesn't have to be. If at the end of the year this all holds true I'd be more inclined to lend it weight.

But right now while I think Tatum has played reasonably well I haven't seen anything in his game that would lead me to believe he's been one of the best players in the game as his +/- would indicate. Thats why you have to at least attempt to take into account his actual peripherals like TS%, Ast% ect because those give you some idea of how responsible he is for his +/-.

You can look at any number of advanced metric right now like BPM, WS/48, VORP and they have Tatum down in the 100 range in general. 538's RAPTOR has him closer to 80th.

[Fafnir]

Jayson is a black hole. Once the ball is in his hands it's a for gone conclusion that he is putting a shot up. When he does actually give up the ball it's only to recalibrate his positioning to again receive the ball to seek another shot. If anyone misses Gordon is Jayson Tatum. Hayward being a much more well rounded basketball player than Jayson puts him in better position to go one on one. 

It's the reason why he routinely doubled and triple teamed, the opposing teams know his ability to pass or dribble out of pressure is suspect.

What are your thoughts on Brown moving the ball? Curious how he fits on the continuum between Jayson and Gordon.

I saw Browns development towards the end of last season. (Unfortunately Kyrie didn't, or didn't care to.) Jaylen has developed a nice stop and go move, he's getting into the paint almost at will, but under control now. He gets to the rim and is finding open players too. Brown is no longer predictable. He worked on ball handling and it's paying dividends. He's not Hayward just yet, but he's also not 29 years old. IMO I'd like to see Brown get more opportunities on offense to create for himself and others.

What I hope doesn't happen is he reverts back because Tatum shoots about every time he gets his hands on the ball.

I must confess this was a trick question from my point of view. Jayson and Jaylen have near identical assist/pass/shot/usage numbers.

If one is a chucker how is the other not a chucker? Same with ball-stopping etc.

Jaylen just shoots less jumpers and attacks more frequently than Jayson. (he's also made more of his layups and gets fouled more)

Their passing is basically the same. Which for me is improved from last year for both but still very much a work in progress to be truly elite offensive players.

[Fafnir]

FWIW I don't suggest using ESPN's RPM for anything. Its bad.

Mind explaining on why it's bad aside from having an unknown fornula? It's still noisy, but it's better than raw +/-, and we don't have enough seasons to pull out a more reliable RAPM for Tatum yet.

I mean you just said it right there. Don't use it or raw +/-.

I think it is particularly bad at rating defensive play.

[Fafnir]

But right now while I think Tatum has played reasonably well I haven't seen anything in his game that would lead me to believe he's been one of the best players in the game as his +/- would indicate. Thats why you have to at least attempt to take into account his actual peripherals like TS%, Ast% ect because those give you some idea of how responsible he is for his +/-.

Its somewhat telling about the limits of basketball stats that you cite peripherals and they're all just offensive stats. Nature of the beast sadly.

Jayson's played his best ball on the defensive end and that's something the public only has very limited tools to judge beyond the eye test.

I am not a fan of RAPTOR, I don't think the way it uses tracking data to measure defense is well founded either.

[Moranis]

But right now while I think Tatum has played reasonably well I haven't seen anything in his game that would lead me to believe he's been one of the best players in the game as his +/- would indicate. Thats why you have to at least attempt to take into account his actual peripherals like TS%, Ast% ect because those give you some idea of how responsible he is for his +/-.

Its somewhat telling about the limits of basketball stats that you cite peripherals and they're all just offensive stats. Nature of the beast sadly.

Jayson's played his best ball on the defensive end and that's something the public only has very limited tools to judge beyond the eye test.

I am not a fan of RAPTOR, I don't think the way it uses tracking data to measure defense is well founded either.

Yeah Mo Wagner has the 4th best RAPTOR this year.  I get he has played well, but he is playing under 19 mpg, off the bench, for one of the worst teams in the league.  Embiid is 26th (which maybe is ok given his health), but the people directly ahead of him are Tristan Thompson, Devonte' Graham, Ryan Arcidiacono, Patty Mills, and Aaron Holiday.  While those guys have played mostly fairly well, no metric should have them better than Joel Embiid (even with the missed games). 

And for the record the On/Off RAPTOR does have Tatum leading the league at 18.2, which again goes to Tatum's actual value.   

[keevsnick]

But right now while I think Tatum has played reasonably well I haven't seen anything in his game that would lead me to believe he's been one of the best players in the game as his +/- would indicate. Thats why you have to at least attempt to take into account his actual peripherals like TS%, Ast% ect because those give you some idea of how responsible he is for his +/-.

Its somewhat telling about the limits of basketball stats that you cite peripherals and they're all just offensive stats. Nature of the beast sadly.

Jayson's played his best ball on the defensive end and that's something the public only has very limited tools to judge beyond the eye test.

I am not a fan of RAPTOR, I don't think the way it uses tracking data to measure defense is well founded either.

Yeah Mo Wagner has the 4th best RAPTOR this year.  I get he has played well, but he is playing under 19 mpg, off the bench, for one of the worst teams in the league.  Embiid is 26th (which maybe is ok given his health), but the people directly ahead of him are Tristan Thompson, Devonte' Graham, Ryan Arcidiacono, Patty Mills, and Aaron Holiday.  While those guys have played mostly fairly well, no metric should have them better than Joel Embiid (even with the missed games). 

And for the record the On/Off RAPTOR does have Tatum leading the league at 18.2, which again goes to Tatum's actual value.

So your argument is that RAPTOR shouldn't be trusted because a couple questionable guys are ahead of Giannis, but +/- is fine even though it has Tatum ahead of Giannis. I mean the idea that Tatum has been better than Giannis this year is just as preposterous as the idea that Aaron Holiday has.

Again, citing RAPTOR +/1 is the same as citing raw plus minus is the same as citing net rating. They are essentially the same stat, and all it says is the team has performed better with Tatum on the floor. I'm sure that is partially due to Tatum's performance, nobody here thinks he's a bad player. But it also wildly overstates his relative value to the team in the minutes he's played. Overall RAPTOR is trying to combine his box score performance with his plus minus to tease out how much of an impact Tatum is actually making.

Also on the bolded I happen to agree, I don't know there are any advanced metrics I trust to measure defense. Mostly I look and see how it rates guys I consider great or awful defenders and if it matches my eye test I give it some credence. But I also think its probably harder to differentiate the mass of guys in the middle. I think Tatum has been good defensively, maybe our fourth best defender behind Smart, Brown, Theis.

[Fafnir]

The thing about defense is how much you do isn't necessarily as important as what you prevent from ever happening.

I think Jaylen falls asleep a bit more than Tatum, combine that with Tatum's length and I think its possible he's having a better defensive season so far. But its impossible to tell though Tatum does rate better in most of the defensive metrics I've seen.

[nickagneta]

The thing about defense is how much you do isn't necessarily as important as what you prevent from ever happening.

I think Jaylen falls asleep a bit more than Tatum, combine that with Tatum's length and I think its possible he's having a better defensive season so far. But its impossible to tell though Tatum does rate better in most of the defensive metrics I've seen.

Hard to use any metric in judging the defense of Jaylen and Jayson this year. Jaylen is generally guarding the highest level scorers and PFs and Jayson is generally guarding SFs, SGs and the worst player the other team has at the 2, 3 and 4 positions

[RazzelnoDazzel]

While I am happy that Jayson made improvements in his 3pt shooting this year, I am concerned with his efficiency, especially his ability to score easy buckets or enabling his teammates those. That is something that adorns great offensive players.

Tatums Stats:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628369/

Roughly, he needs 20 shooting possessions to score 20 points and that is way below premier offensive players in the league. Kemba scores 4 pts more on similar usage and playing time. JB scores more on fewer shots, Hayward has 14% higher true shooting. Smart is more efficient, even after 2/16 shooting night.

Particularly, he is poor at finishing at the rim, and getting to the line more consistently. While his length is good, he doesn't have a great explosion nor bulk to burst by defenders and create decisive separation. That leaves him to be a more of a finesse/skill player inside the arc. I haven't seen that much improvement in this department since he came here.

I don't think that he is no shape or form done with his development, and I think that due to our overall number of scoring threats will eventually leave him to have a mismatch in the playoffs. He could use that opportunity to our benefit, but I would much rather anticipate that if I could see him regularly create and score the easy ones.

What's your overall take in the replaceability of his skill set on our team and where do you rank his contributions (this year) as of today.

I agree in the since of he isn’t anywhere close to being a developed star in this league. He is insanely overrated in my book and I have been saying this. I really think he being pushed to be this “scorer” that he just isn’t. There is nothing wrong with being a spot up catch and shoot player, and I think this is where he is best. At one point I saw him as a Carmelo type, but he isn’t hitting the 2 pointers to even become that.

People get on him about his shot selection, but he misses even at the rim and there is no easier shot than one that is taken at the rim.... he’s just not “that guy”. Stars don’t blow as many layups as he does. Stars can get into unstoppable rhythms that can change games (like Buddy Hield caught against us). Idc about a +/- he just isn’t scoring well and he is known as a scorer so ‍♂️

Buddy Hield is more than 5 years older than Tatum. At 21, he was a college sophomore. 

Talking about Tatum as though he's a finished product or reached his ceiling is a topic not worth visiting.

Yep Hield has no doubt become a great shooter but he's turning 27 in under a month! He's well into his prime years. Tatum turns 22 in March. I don't think people are comprehending the amount of potential there.

Tatum = Wiggins.

[Big333223]

He holds the ball too long, his passing hasn't improved much, and he's not finishing at the rim.

But his skillset is still elite and he's still only 21.