Summary of 2nd Round Hits From 2000-2017

[GreenlyGreeny]

Below is a list of all second-round picks in the 21st century who made one or more appearance in an NBA all-star game (* denotes at least one all-NBA selection; ** is Jokic; *** gives props to Brogdon for being the only second-rounder to win ROTY in over 50 years).

Out of over 600 picks during the time period, there are only 14 players who were selected to at least one all-star game, so roughly 2%.

If you limit the period to 2009-2017, since it’s premature to rule-out a second-rounder since 2018 eventually making an all-star game, it’s only 4 of 270 or roughly 1.5% (2008-2017, a complete ten year period, is 6 of 300, so exactly 2%).

In a few years, we’ll be able to re-run the numbers and see if the drafting was much better from 2010-2019 than it was 2000-2009 (e.g., future all-stars should be identified and drafted in the first round, not slip into the second).

Of the 14, only three of them were selected all-NBA first team at least once and all three are centers (Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan and Jokic). So 3 out of over 600 picks is about 0.5%. All three were selected all-NBA more than once, with the only other player to achieve that being Draymond Green (never made all-NBA 1st team, though).

I will leave it to someone else to summarize by year which second-rounders started more than 82 games in their career (and/or played more than 10,000 minutes in their career), but until then it seems safe to say that there’s no data contradicting the theory that you have to be extremely lucky for that second-round pick to have good value (particularly outside the top 50 picks).

Other thoughts, comments or ideas for future draft analysis?

2000
43: Michael Redd *

2001
31: Gilbert Arenas *
38: Mehmet Okur

2002
35: Carlos Boozer *

2003
47: Mo Williams
51: Kyle Korver

2004-2005
None

2006
47: Paul Milsap

2007
48: Marc Gasol *

2008
35: DeAndre Jordan *
45: Goran Dragic *

2009-2010
None

2011
60: IT *

2012
35: Dray *
39: Khris

2013
None

2014
41: Jokic **

2015
None

2016
36: Brogdon ***

2017
None

2018-2022 ****
None at this time

Footnotes:

* - Also at least one all-NBA selection

** - MVP, NBA 75er, Future HOFer

*** - Not yet an all-star, but rookie of the year in 2016-2017 and potential future all-star

**** - Too early to project whether these classes will have a future all-star (e.g., Jalen Brunson was 33rd in 2018)

[tazzmaniac]

Why in the world would you be basing success of 2nd round picks on all-star and all-nba selections?  No one is expecting to get an all-star or all-nba player in the 2nd round.  Getting a good bench player is a successful 2nd round pick. 

[Vermont Green]

I think this is interesting information.  You can do with it what you want, it is just data. 

To me what this shows is how much of a crap shoot drafting is.  You can get an all star or a wash out in the lottery or the second round.  On average, 1 second rounder beats the odds and becomes an all star.  If you as a team have picked that one, it is probably more luck than skill.

[GreenlyGreeny]

Why in the world would you be basing success of 2nd round picks on all-star and all-nba selections?

Help manage expectations. Some people treat these second round picks in trade discussions like we’re talking about giving up future starters, or even all-stars. It’s absurd how much some people overrate second round picks.

No one is expecting to get an all-star or all-nba player in the 2nd round.

You may be surprised…

Getting a good bench player is a successful 2nd round pick.

Agree. Was hoping someone can demonstrate the odds of that happening next: So basically odds of landing anybody who starts 82+ NBA games in their career, and odds of landing anybody who plays over 10,000 minutes in their career (I don’t have time to do that analysis, but if someone else does, would say it would be interesting to see 2008-2017 and nobody would be upset with limiting it to that period).

[GreenlyGreeny]

On average, 1 second rounder beats the odds and becomes an all star.  If you as a team have picked that one, it is probably more luck than skill.

Exactly because otherwise they would have used their first or moved up their second into the first to get that all-star if they knew they would become an all-star. Some exceptions would be teams that had a top five pick and then hit on someone who slipped into the 30s (after they were trying real hard to trade up into the 20s to get that person).

It would be super cool if someone analyzed the odds of landing a HOFer, all-NBAer, all-star, starter and rotational piece for pick ranges 1-5, 6-14, 15-22, 23-30, 31-39, 40-49, 50-60. Surely NBA teams have that data analysis, of course, but would be cool to see us fans have it. This thread really just shows odds of HOFer, all-NBAer, all-star for picks 31-60 (I can do the analysis relatively quickly if I had a dataset of all players ever drafted along with their game stats, number of appearances in all-star games, number of all-NBA selections, and which pick they were—I do not have time for the data collection, but hope one of you does or knows where we can find such a dataset).