21-22 College Football Thread

[tazzmaniac]

Arkansas is within six against Alabama after an awesome fake kick.

Bama defense fell for the same fake in a previous game except it was on a fake punt.  This is the sloppiest Bama team in a long while.  They've shown little growth over the season.  Still making the same stupid mistakes. 

[celticsclay]

Cincinnati's QB, Ridder, has 3 passing TD's, 1 receiving TD, and 1 rushing TD.  As they are up 6TD's on 8-2 SMU.  They definitely heard the criticism as they are putting a hurt on the 2nd best team they've played this year.

I'm rooting for Cincy over the other contenders (outside of Alabama, who I like rooting for).  But you kind of make the case against them here.  SMU is the second best team they've played.  SMU is also unranked.  SMU is also about to go to 4-3 in a pretty weak conference, and they haven't played a ranked opponent before today.

They beat Notre Dame who is gonna be up to like 8th in the country. Houston is also a very solid team who they play next week. If they stomp them are you impressed?

Houston lost to Texas Tech so not that solid of a team.

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Oregon lost to a much worse Stanford team, so are they not a "solid team"? They are ranked 24th in country and have won every other game. Including a decent amount in blowouts. To say a team isn't solid because of one loss is pretty absurd. Not saying they are world beaters, but clearly solid.

[Celtics2021]

Cincinnati's QB, Ridder, has 3 passing TD's, 1 receiving TD, and 1 rushing TD.  As they are up 6TD's on 8-2 SMU.  They definitely heard the criticism as they are putting a hurt on the 2nd best team they've played this year.

I'm rooting for Cincy over the other contenders (outside of Alabama, who I like rooting for).  But you kind of make the case against them here.  SMU is the second best team they've played.  SMU is also unranked.  SMU is also about to go to 4-3 in a pretty weak conference, and they haven't played a ranked opponent before today.

They beat Notre Dame who is gonna be up to like 8th in the country. Houston is also a very solid team who they play next week. If they stomp them are you impressed?

Personally, no.  They’ve looked very unimpressive in a number of their wins against vastly inferior competition.  Prior to beating SMU, their second-best win was probably against Indiana, which is a 2-9 team that’s winless in the Big 10.  It’s great to win a big game or two, but in a world with only a four-team playoff, Cincinnati needed to impress every week with their schedule, and they simply haven’t.

[tazzmaniac]

Cincinnati's QB, Ridder, has 3 passing TD's, 1 receiving TD, and 1 rushing TD.  As they are up 6TD's on 8-2 SMU.  They definitely heard the criticism as they are putting a hurt on the 2nd best team they've played this year.

I'm rooting for Cincy over the other contenders (outside of Alabama, who I like rooting for).  But you kind of make the case against them here.  SMU is the second best team they've played.  SMU is also unranked.  SMU is also about to go to 4-3 in a pretty weak conference, and they haven't played a ranked opponent before today.

They beat Notre Dame who is gonna be up to like 8th in the country. Houston is also a very solid team who they play next week. If they stomp them are you impressed?

Houston lost to Texas Tech so not that solid of a team.

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Oregon lost to a much worse Stanford team, so are they not a "solid team"? They are ranked 24th in country and have won every other game. Including a decent amount in blowouts. To say a team isn't solid because of one loss is pretty absurd. Not saying they are world beaters, but clearly solid.

Houston's best win is against SMU.  Their next best win is East Carolina.  Everyone else they beat has a losing record.  And they lost to a mediocre Texas Tech by 17.  Texas Tech lost to Texas by 35 and lost to Oklahoma by 31.  A lot of P5 teams would have zero or one loss if they played Houston's schedule. 

[Moranis]

Cincinnati's QB, Ridder, has 3 passing TD's, 1 receiving TD, and 1 rushing TD.  As they are up 6TD's on 8-2 SMU.  They definitely heard the criticism as they are putting a hurt on the 2nd best team they've played this year.

I'm rooting for Cincy over the other contenders (outside of Alabama, who I like rooting for).  But you kind of make the case against them here.  SMU is the second best team they've played.  SMU is also unranked.  SMU is also about to go to 4-3 in a pretty weak conference, and they haven't played a ranked opponent before today.

They beat Notre Dame who is gonna be up to like 8th in the country. Houston is also a very solid team who they play next week. If they stomp them are you impressed?

Houston lost to Texas Tech so not that solid of a team.

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Oregon lost to a much worse Stanford team, so are they not a "solid team"? They are ranked 24th in country and have won every other game. Including a decent amount in blowouts. To say a team isn't solid because of one loss is pretty absurd. Not saying they are world beaters, but clearly solid.

Houston's best win is against SMU.  Their next best win is East Carolina.  Everyone else they beat has a losing record.  And they lost to a mediocre Texas Tech by 17.  Texas Tech lost to Texas by 35 and lost to Oklahoma by 31.  A lot of P5 teams would have zero or one loss if they played Houston's schedule.

SMU beat TCU who beat Baylor. 

Memphis beat ranked Mississippi St. and is below .500 in the American.

And everyone wants to give Cinci crap for barely besting teams like Tulsa (28-20), but completely ignore that Tulsa lost to Oklahoma St. by 5 and who was losing to Ohio St. by just 7 with 3 minutes left before 2 late OSU TD's.

Cincinnati also was the better team in their bowl game against Georgia for the vast majority of the game.  That was last year, but it does show they have talent, especially at QB where Ridder is projected as a top 5 QB in the draft.

If Cincinnati is unbeaten they absolutely belong in the playoff this year along with the SEC champ, Big Ten champ, and then someone else (Oregon has the inside track).

[Roy H.]

The "Team X beat Team Y beat Team Z" argument doesn't add a whole lot.

Alabama lost to A&M who lost to Mississippi State who lost to Memphis who lost to UT San Antonio.

UTSA is 11-0 and has that "chain win" over Alabama.  They should be in the playoff.

[Roy H.]

Oregon down three TDs at halftime.

EDIT:  Four TDs.  Utah took it to the house on an 80 yard punt return with 11 seconds left.

[Roy H.]

Assuming Oregon loses, Cincy has a great chance now.

Top 8 are Georgia, Alabama, Oregon (lost), OSU, Cincy, Michigan, MSU (lost), ND

Michigan and OSU play each other.

Assume Georgia, OSU and Alabama make it.  Then it’s undefeated Cincy vs 1 loss ND.  That one loss?  To Cincy.

The big question:  does two loss Bama make it over ND?  They have to, right?

[Phantom255x]

Assuming Oregon loses, Cincy has a great chance now.

Top 8 are Georgia, Alabama, Oregon (lost), OSU, Cincy, Michigan, MSU (lost), ND

Michigan and OSU play each other.

Assume Georgia, OSU and Alabama make it.  Then it’s undefeated Cincy vs 1 loss ND.  That one loss?  To Cincy.

Joel Klatt said this last week and I tend to agree. For Alabama, it kind of feels like it's truly "all or nothing" with them, because in theory if they win out then they would also have beaten #1 Georgia in the SEC Champ. Game which would mean they are the #1 seed. If they don't win out, then they'll have two losses and are probably off the CFP barring a ton of other upsets around them too.

Now granted, Ohio State had a phenomenal win today and if they run the table entirely while Alabama beats Georgia, then maybe Ohio State is actually #1, but either way I think Alabama will be #1, #2 or out of it.

And yeah, now I think Cincinnati has a fantastic chance of making it. As you mention, they had the huge road win @Notre Dame earlier in the year, and I don't see two Big 10 teams making it (it'll be just 1 of Michigan/Ohio State).

Assuming results hold, I think the CFP rankings next week will look:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati
5. Michigan
6. Notre Dame

It does seem to me that margin of victory and quality of opponent matters to the Committee, so for this week Ohio State will leap Alabama since Arkansas put up a great fight at Alabama and only lost by 7.

Teams like Michigan State, Wake Forest, Oregon will probably fall out of the running entirely (assuming Utah holds on).

Oklahoma State could end up being a darkhorse too in this race. Their chances are still slim but assuming you see some chaos and unexpected upsets I wouldn't count them out entirely. They are currently #9 I believe but should go up after tonight. They lost to Iowa State who gave Oklahoma a good fight today and Okla State plays #12 Oklahoma next week and if they win that, it'll help.

[Donoghus]

Good stuff here from the Athletic.

It would be impossible to list every possible four-team combination still in play. But I ranked the 10 most likely ones based on predicted outcomes of every remaining relevant game, from a final two weeks with no upsets to a final two weeks with many.

1. Chalk
In this scenario, undefeated Georgia beats 11-1 Alabama in the SEC title game; Ohio State beats 10-1 Michigan and (likely) 9-3 Wisconsin to finish as a 12-1 Big Ten champ; Cincinnati beats 7-4 East Carolina and 10-1 Houston to finish 13-0; and Oklahoma State beats 10-1 Oklahoma and (likely) 10-2 Baylor in Arlington to finish as a 12-1 Big 12 champion. Also, Notre Dame handles 3-8 Stanford this week to finish 11-1.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Everyone’s sleeping on the Cowboys, No. 9 in last week’s CFP rankings, but they have a chance to finish with three top-15 wins against Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), plus a nice non-conference win over Boise State. That would likely bump them above Cincinnati, which will have two Top 25 wins, max. Then it’s a matter of whether the committee will reward the undefeated team with a lighter schedule (Cincinnati) or the two-loss team with a tougher schedule (Alabama).

Note that the Bearcats would have the best win of the two, at 11-1 Notre Dame, and they might even finish with the same number of Top 25 wins, two (Alabama’s being Ole Miss and Arkansas), but Alabama would have six wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents to Cincinnati’s one.

I’m taking the Bearcats against my better instincts.

2. The Big 12 produces a two-loss champion
It’s not hard to imagine the following happening: Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, handing Oklahoma its second loss, but then loses to Baylor in the conference title game. The Bears finish as 11-2 champions. Or, Oklahoma wins this weekend, then loses a rematch with the Cowboys. Again, everyone finishes with two losses, and the Big 12 is out.

Would that open the door for the once-forgotten Fighting Irish? … Probably not.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

Not only is Notre Dame hurt by the lack of a conference championship game, but the Tide would still have a stronger résumé. The Irish will likely finish with just one Top 25 win, against a three- or four-loss Wisconsin team.

3. Oklahoma finishes as a 12-1 Big 12 champion
The committee has not been keen on the Sooners, especially given they don’t yet have a Top 25 win. They can pick up two in the last two weeks, but they’d come against the same team, Oklahoma State. Is that enough to erase 11 weeks of scraping by the likes of 3-8 Nebraska and 2-9 Kansas? … I think not.

In fact, none of my scenarios have Oklahoma making the Playoff.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

4. Alabama upsets Georgia in Atlanta; Oklahoma State finishes 12-1
The Dawgs have dominated 11 consecutive opponents, while the Tide lost to 8-3 Texas A&M and has had their hands full with everyone from 5-6 Florida to 5-6 LSU to 7-4 Arkansas. But would you really put it past Nick Saban to break Georgia fans’ hearts yet again? It would potentially give Alabama two top 10 wins — same as Ohio State.

The loser in that scenario is, of course, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

5. Alabama beats Georgia, and the Big 12 knocks itself out
Welcome back, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

6. Georgia beats Alabama, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Based on recent history, Michigan beating Ohio State should not be on any list of “likely” scenarios, but Vegas believes an upset is within reason. The Wolverines are modest eight-point underdogs. And if they do that, they’d be favorites in Indianapolis.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Again, this assumes the committee takes Cincinnati over not just two-loss Alabama but two-loss Ohio State. (And the Buckeyes, of course, would be 10-2, not 11-2).

7. Alabama beats Georgia, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Another nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, unless the Big 12 bows out.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

8. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan and Cincinnati loses a game
The Bearcats were at their best in Saturday’s 48-14 rout of 8-3 SMU, but they’ve had their share of sloppy games against inferior opponents. What if the next one comes on Black Friday at East Carolina — and this time they don’t survive it?

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Boy, that SEC rematch won’t tick off fans at all.

9. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, we’ve found a scenario where Brian Kelly makes his third Playoff in four years.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama

So much for new blood.

10. Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, college football has another 2007-type ending …

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

… And it somehow results in another Alabama-Notre Dame BCS/College Football Playoff matchup.

I’m sure there are even wilder scenarios than these, but we’ll wrap up our exercise here.

So which Playoff field would you enjoy the most?

[Celtics2021]

Good stuff here from the Athletic.

It would be impossible to list every possible four-team combination still in play. But I ranked the 10 most likely ones based on predicted outcomes of every remaining relevant game, from a final two weeks with no upsets to a final two weeks with many.

1. Chalk
In this scenario, undefeated Georgia beats 11-1 Alabama in the SEC title game; Ohio State beats 10-1 Michigan and (likely) 9-3 Wisconsin to finish as a 12-1 Big Ten champ; Cincinnati beats 7-4 East Carolina and 10-1 Houston to finish 13-0; and Oklahoma State beats 10-1 Oklahoma and (likely) 10-2 Baylor in Arlington to finish as a 12-1 Big 12 champion. Also, Notre Dame handles 3-8 Stanford this week to finish 11-1.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Everyone’s sleeping on the Cowboys, No. 9 in last week’s CFP rankings, but they have a chance to finish with three top-15 wins against Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), plus a nice non-conference win over Boise State. That would likely bump them above Cincinnati, which will have two Top 25 wins, max. Then it’s a matter of whether the committee will reward the undefeated team with a lighter schedule (Cincinnati) or the two-loss team with a tougher schedule (Alabama).

Note that the Bearcats would have the best win of the two, at 11-1 Notre Dame, and they might even finish with the same number of Top 25 wins, two (Alabama’s being Ole Miss and Arkansas), but Alabama would have six wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents to Cincinnati’s one.

I’m taking the Bearcats against my better instincts.

2. The Big 12 produces a two-loss champion
It’s not hard to imagine the following happening: Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, handing Oklahoma its second loss, but then loses to Baylor in the conference title game. The Bears finish as 11-2 champions. Or, Oklahoma wins this weekend, then loses a rematch with the Cowboys. Again, everyone finishes with two losses, and the Big 12 is out.

Would that open the door for the once-forgotten Fighting Irish? … Probably not.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

Not only is Notre Dame hurt by the lack of a conference championship game, but the Tide would still have a stronger résumé. The Irish will likely finish with just one Top 25 win, against a three- or four-loss Wisconsin team.

3. Oklahoma finishes as a 12-1 Big 12 champion
The committee has not been keen on the Sooners, especially given they don’t yet have a Top 25 win. They can pick up two in the last two weeks, but they’d come against the same team, Oklahoma State. Is that enough to erase 11 weeks of scraping by the likes of 3-8 Nebraska and 2-9 Kansas? … I think not.

In fact, none of my scenarios have Oklahoma making the Playoff.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

4. Alabama upsets Georgia in Atlanta; Oklahoma State finishes 12-1
The Dawgs have dominated 11 consecutive opponents, while the Tide lost to 8-3 Texas A&M and has had their hands full with everyone from 5-6 Florida to 5-6 LSU to 7-4 Arkansas. But would you really put it past Nick Saban to break Georgia fans’ hearts yet again? It would potentially give Alabama two top 10 wins — same as Ohio State.

The loser in that scenario is, of course, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

5. Alabama beats Georgia, and the Big 12 knocks itself out
Welcome back, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

6. Georgia beats Alabama, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Based on recent history, Michigan beating Ohio State should not be on any list of “likely” scenarios, but Vegas believes an upset is within reason. The Wolverines are modest eight-point underdogs. And if they do that, they’d be favorites in Indianapolis.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Again, this assumes the committee takes Cincinnati over not just two-loss Alabama but two-loss Ohio State. (And the Buckeyes, of course, would be 10-2, not 11-2).

7. Alabama beats Georgia, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Another nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, unless the Big 12 bows out.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

8. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan and Cincinnati loses a game
The Bearcats were at their best in Saturday’s 48-14 rout of 8-3 SMU, but they’ve had their share of sloppy games against inferior opponents. What if the next one comes on Black Friday at East Carolina — and this time they don’t survive it?

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Boy, that SEC rematch won’t tick off fans at all.

9. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, we’ve found a scenario where Brian Kelly makes his third Playoff in four years.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama

So much for new blood.

10. Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, college football has another 2007-type ending …

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

… And it somehow results in another Alabama-Notre Dame BCS/College Football Playoff matchup.

I’m sure there are even wilder scenarios than these, but we’ll wrap up our exercise here.

So which Playoff field would you enjoy the most?

Good stuff indeed, but I think he's underselling Wisconsin's ability to upset Michigan or Ohio State in these scenarios.  They're a top-10 team in pretty much every computer ranking, and a top 5 team in some.  Not saying they have any ability to make the playoff, but he has the winner of Ohio St-Michigan 2 or 3 in every one of the scenarios, and that might be too strong of an assumption.

[Moranis]

Good stuff here from the Athletic.

It would be impossible to list every possible four-team combination still in play. But I ranked the 10 most likely ones based on predicted outcomes of every remaining relevant game, from a final two weeks with no upsets to a final two weeks with many.

1. Chalk
In this scenario, undefeated Georgia beats 11-1 Alabama in the SEC title game; Ohio State beats 10-1 Michigan and (likely) 9-3 Wisconsin to finish as a 12-1 Big Ten champ; Cincinnati beats 7-4 East Carolina and 10-1 Houston to finish 13-0; and Oklahoma State beats 10-1 Oklahoma and (likely) 10-2 Baylor in Arlington to finish as a 12-1 Big 12 champion. Also, Notre Dame handles 3-8 Stanford this week to finish 11-1.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Everyone’s sleeping on the Cowboys, No. 9 in last week’s CFP rankings, but they have a chance to finish with three top-15 wins against Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), plus a nice non-conference win over Boise State. That would likely bump them above Cincinnati, which will have two Top 25 wins, max. Then it’s a matter of whether the committee will reward the undefeated team with a lighter schedule (Cincinnati) or the two-loss team with a tougher schedule (Alabama).

Note that the Bearcats would have the best win of the two, at 11-1 Notre Dame, and they might even finish with the same number of Top 25 wins, two (Alabama’s being Ole Miss and Arkansas), but Alabama would have six wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents to Cincinnati’s one.

I’m taking the Bearcats against my better instincts.

2. The Big 12 produces a two-loss champion
It’s not hard to imagine the following happening: Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, handing Oklahoma its second loss, but then loses to Baylor in the conference title game. The Bears finish as 11-2 champions. Or, Oklahoma wins this weekend, then loses a rematch with the Cowboys. Again, everyone finishes with two losses, and the Big 12 is out.

Would that open the door for the once-forgotten Fighting Irish? … Probably not.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

Not only is Notre Dame hurt by the lack of a conference championship game, but the Tide would still have a stronger résumé. The Irish will likely finish with just one Top 25 win, against a three- or four-loss Wisconsin team.

3. Oklahoma finishes as a 12-1 Big 12 champion
The committee has not been keen on the Sooners, especially given they don’t yet have a Top 25 win. They can pick up two in the last two weeks, but they’d come against the same team, Oklahoma State. Is that enough to erase 11 weeks of scraping by the likes of 3-8 Nebraska and 2-9 Kansas? … I think not.

In fact, none of my scenarios have Oklahoma making the Playoff.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

4. Alabama upsets Georgia in Atlanta; Oklahoma State finishes 12-1
The Dawgs have dominated 11 consecutive opponents, while the Tide lost to 8-3 Texas A&M and has had their hands full with everyone from 5-6 Florida to 5-6 LSU to 7-4 Arkansas. But would you really put it past Nick Saban to break Georgia fans’ hearts yet again? It would potentially give Alabama two top 10 wins — same as Ohio State.

The loser in that scenario is, of course, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

5. Alabama beats Georgia, and the Big 12 knocks itself out
Welcome back, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

6. Georgia beats Alabama, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Based on recent history, Michigan beating Ohio State should not be on any list of “likely” scenarios, but Vegas believes an upset is within reason. The Wolverines are modest eight-point underdogs. And if they do that, they’d be favorites in Indianapolis.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Again, this assumes the committee takes Cincinnati over not just two-loss Alabama but two-loss Ohio State. (And the Buckeyes, of course, would be 10-2, not 11-2).

7. Alabama beats Georgia, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Another nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, unless the Big 12 bows out.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

8. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan and Cincinnati loses a game
The Bearcats were at their best in Saturday’s 48-14 rout of 8-3 SMU, but they’ve had their share of sloppy games against inferior opponents. What if the next one comes on Black Friday at East Carolina — and this time they don’t survive it?

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Boy, that SEC rematch won’t tick off fans at all.

9. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, we’ve found a scenario where Brian Kelly makes his third Playoff in four years.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama

So much for new blood.

10. Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, college football has another 2007-type ending …

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

… And it somehow results in another Alabama-Notre Dame BCS/College Football Playoff matchup.

I’m sure there are even wilder scenarios than these, but we’ll wrap up our exercise here.

So which Playoff field would you enjoy the most?

Good stuff indeed, but I think he's underselling Wisconsin's ability to upset Michigan or Ohio State in these scenarios.  They're a top-10 team in pretty much every computer ranking, and a top 5 team in some.  Not saying they have any ability to make the playoff, but he has the winner of Ohio St-Michigan 2 or 3 in every one of the scenarios, and that might be too strong of an assumption.

Wisconsin has obviously been playing some good football of late, but they lost at home to Michigan by 21 earlier this year.  They lost at home to Notre Dame by 28 and opened the season losing at home to Penn St. by 6.  They obviously haven't lost since that Michigan game, but they haven't exactly played a super difficult schedule either.  They obviously could upset Ohio State or Michigan, but it would be a pretty massive upset for that to happen. 

[Celtics2021]

Good stuff here from the Athletic.

It would be impossible to list every possible four-team combination still in play. But I ranked the 10 most likely ones based on predicted outcomes of every remaining relevant game, from a final two weeks with no upsets to a final two weeks with many.

1. Chalk
In this scenario, undefeated Georgia beats 11-1 Alabama in the SEC title game; Ohio State beats 10-1 Michigan and (likely) 9-3 Wisconsin to finish as a 12-1 Big Ten champ; Cincinnati beats 7-4 East Carolina and 10-1 Houston to finish 13-0; and Oklahoma State beats 10-1 Oklahoma and (likely) 10-2 Baylor in Arlington to finish as a 12-1 Big 12 champion. Also, Notre Dame handles 3-8 Stanford this week to finish 11-1.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Everyone’s sleeping on the Cowboys, No. 9 in last week’s CFP rankings, but they have a chance to finish with three top-15 wins against Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), plus a nice non-conference win over Boise State. That would likely bump them above Cincinnati, which will have two Top 25 wins, max. Then it’s a matter of whether the committee will reward the undefeated team with a lighter schedule (Cincinnati) or the two-loss team with a tougher schedule (Alabama).

Note that the Bearcats would have the best win of the two, at 11-1 Notre Dame, and they might even finish with the same number of Top 25 wins, two (Alabama’s being Ole Miss and Arkansas), but Alabama would have six wins over bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents to Cincinnati’s one.

I’m taking the Bearcats against my better instincts.

2. The Big 12 produces a two-loss champion
It’s not hard to imagine the following happening: Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, handing Oklahoma its second loss, but then loses to Baylor in the conference title game. The Bears finish as 11-2 champions. Or, Oklahoma wins this weekend, then loses a rematch with the Cowboys. Again, everyone finishes with two losses, and the Big 12 is out.

Would that open the door for the once-forgotten Fighting Irish? … Probably not.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

Not only is Notre Dame hurt by the lack of a conference championship game, but the Tide would still have a stronger résumé. The Irish will likely finish with just one Top 25 win, against a three- or four-loss Wisconsin team.

3. Oklahoma finishes as a 12-1 Big 12 champion
The committee has not been keen on the Sooners, especially given they don’t yet have a Top 25 win. They can pick up two in the last two weeks, but they’d come against the same team, Oklahoma State. Is that enough to erase 11 weeks of scraping by the likes of 3-8 Nebraska and 2-9 Kansas? … I think not.

In fact, none of my scenarios have Oklahoma making the Playoff.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

4. Alabama upsets Georgia in Atlanta; Oklahoma State finishes 12-1
The Dawgs have dominated 11 consecutive opponents, while the Tide lost to 8-3 Texas A&M and has had their hands full with everyone from 5-6 Florida to 5-6 LSU to 7-4 Arkansas. But would you really put it past Nick Saban to break Georgia fans’ hearts yet again? It would potentially give Alabama two top 10 wins — same as Ohio State.

The loser in that scenario is, of course, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

5. Alabama beats Georgia, and the Big 12 knocks itself out
Welcome back, Cincinnati.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia

6. Georgia beats Alabama, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Based on recent history, Michigan beating Ohio State should not be on any list of “likely” scenarios, but Vegas believes an upset is within reason. The Wolverines are modest eight-point underdogs. And if they do that, they’d be favorites in Indianapolis.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Again, this assumes the committee takes Cincinnati over not just two-loss Alabama but two-loss Ohio State. (And the Buckeyes, of course, would be 10-2, not 11-2).

7. Alabama beats Georgia, and Michigan wins the Big Ten
Another nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, unless the Big 12 bows out.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

8. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan and Cincinnati loses a game
The Bearcats were at their best in Saturday’s 48-14 rout of 8-3 SMU, but they’ve had their share of sloppy games against inferior opponents. What if the next one comes on Black Friday at East Carolina — and this time they don’t survive it?

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

Boy, that SEC rematch won’t tick off fans at all.

9. Georgia beats Alabama, Ohio State beats Michigan, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, we’ve found a scenario where Brian Kelly makes his third Playoff in four years.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama

So much for new blood.

10. Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Cincinnati loses a game and the Big 12 bows out
At long last, college football has another 2007-type ending …

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Michigan

… And it somehow results in another Alabama-Notre Dame BCS/College Football Playoff matchup.

I’m sure there are even wilder scenarios than these, but we’ll wrap up our exercise here.

So which Playoff field would you enjoy the most?

Good stuff indeed, but I think he's underselling Wisconsin's ability to upset Michigan or Ohio State in these scenarios.  They're a top-10 team in pretty much every computer ranking, and a top 5 team in some.  Not saying they have any ability to make the playoff, but he has the winner of Ohio St-Michigan 2 or 3 in every one of the scenarios, and that might be too strong of an assumption.

Wisconsin has obviously been playing some good football of late, but they lost at home to Michigan by 21 earlier this year.  They lost at home to Notre Dame by 28 and opened the season losing at home to Penn St. by 6.  They obviously haven't lost since that Michigan game, but they haven't exactly played a super difficult schedule either.  They obviously could upset Ohio State or Michigan, but it would be a pretty massive upset for that to happen.

The Notre Dame loss was a bit flukier than the final score suggests — Wisconsin led in the 4th quarter before the wheels fell off in epic fashion by giving up a kick return and two pick-6’s — and I think some of the computers rightfully take that into account when evaluating Wisconsin’s quality.

They’re not as good as OSU or Michigan, but they are still very good, and the best teams don’t always win.  It just seems a little fait accompli to come up with 10 scenarios and none of them involve Wisconsin winning.  It’s not that out of the realm of possibility.

[Phantom255x]

Congrats Bearcats! CFP finally putting them as the #4 seed in the playoffs.

That Michigan-Ohio State game this weekend will be INSANE. I kind of hope Michigan gets the upset and adds to the chaos (but also I feel at some point Michigan has to do something in this rivalry... right?)

[Moranis]

Congrats Bearcats! CFP finally putting them as the #4 seed in the playoffs.

That Michigan-Ohio State game this weekend will be INSANE. I kind of hope Michigan gets the upset and adds to the chaos (but also I feel at some point Michigan has to do something in this rivalry... right?)

It won't really be chaos though.  The winner will play for the Big Ten title and if they win that will be in the playoff.  The loser will not.  Chaos is Alabama losing to Auburn and then beating Georgia.  That will cause all sorts of potential problems.