Remember who really believed when the stories change

[drza44]

I got ultra busy early this week so I didn't get to continue posting articles.  I still have plans to find Hollinger's ridiculous preseason prediction record for this team and take it apart before we get too far into the year (he confuses his methods, and it produces silly results).  But the other thing I didn't get to do was really hammer on the "all of our players are going to be all stars by the time the season is over" trend.  I mentioned it before with Sheed but the other player that I was absolutely convinced would get the same treatment (outside of Marquis Daniels, who maybe I'll tackle another day) is Shelden Williams.  This is what I said when the Cs got Williams this summer:

"I love this signing.  In 2006, I was PRAYING that the Wolves would find a way to get Williams because I thought he was the perfect big man to play next to KG: wide body, defensive minded, doesn't mind doing the dirty work.  Essentially, what I wanted/expected in a KG/Williams combo is what we eventually got out of the KG/Perkins combo.

I don't expect Williams to come here and actually BE Perk, but the potential is there.  They have similar size (Perk about an inch taller), they both have the disproportionally long arms, and on the court they have a similar mindset.  And if he got extended minutes next to KG and Wallace, I fully expect that Williams would make a competent fill-in rotation big.  Excellent insurance option."

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=30931.msg554974#msg554974

Side note: did anyone else see KG all in Williams' ear bigging him up after last night's game?  I saw the same thing with Perk and Powe year 1, and with Big Baby the last 2 years.  KG is a **** kingmaker with his younger teammates.

Now, back on business, here is what ProtectThePaint had to say when we signed Williams:

"There is no chance he will actually contribute"

"We’ll likely put a man on Mars before Williams has any sort of NBA impact. Good thing he married well."

http://protectthepaint.com/2009/08/04/candace-parker-rejoices-boston-celtics-sign-sheldon-williams/

Now, 2 games in, I'm already seeing articles starting to big Williams up.  Just wait...by the time the season ends he'll have been a top-5 lottery pick that the Celtics gypped their way into getting and all of that "bust" talk will be forgotten about like all the pundits were with him all along...no you (freakin) wasn't!

[footey]

I got ultra busy early this week so I didn't get to continue posting articles.  I still have plans to find Hollinger's ridiculous preseason prediction record for this team and take it apart before we get too far into the year (he confuses his methods, and it produces silly results).  But the other thing I didn't get to do was really hammer on the "all of our players are going to be all stars by the time the season is over" trend.  I mentioned it before with Sheed but the other player that I was absolutely convinced would get the same treatment (outside of Marquis Daniels, who maybe I'll tackle another day) is Shelden Williams.  This is what I said when the Cs got Williams this summer:

"I love this signing.  In 2006, I was PRAYING that the Wolves would find a way to get Williams because I thought he was the perfect big man to play next to KG: wide body, defensive minded, doesn't mind doing the dirty work.  Essentially, what I wanted/expected in a KG/Williams combo is what we eventually got out of the KG/Perkins combo.

I don't expect Williams to come here and actually BE Perk, but the potential is there.  They have similar size (Perk about an inch taller), they both have the disproportionally long arms, and on the court they have a similar mindset.  And if he got extended minutes next to KG and Wallace, I fully expect that Williams would make a competent fill-in rotation big.  Excellent insurance option."

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=30931.msg554974#msg554974

Side note: did anyone else see KG all in Williams' ear bigging him up after last night's game?  I saw the same thing with Perk and Powe year 1, and with Big Baby the last 2 years.  KG is a **** kingmaker with his younger teammates.

Now, back on business, here is what ProtectThePaint had to say when we signed Williams:

"There is no chance he will actually contribute"

"We’ll likely put a man on Mars before Williams has any sort of NBA impact. Good thing he married well."

http://protectthepaint.com/2009/08/04/candace-parker-rejoices-boston-celtics-sign-sheldon-williams/

Now, 2 games in, I'm already seeing articles starting to big Williams up.  Just wait...by the time the season ends he'll have been a top-5 lottery pick that the Celtics gypped their way into getting and all of that "bust" talk will be forgotten about like all the pundits were with him all along...no you (freakin) wasn't!

Love your enthusiasm about Sheldon, which I share, as noted in the other post I started. Still, there will be some downs along the way. Let's see how he does over the 82. 

[CoachCowens]

I think this team will win it all even if they have injuries to the core 8. Sheed and Daniels give the C's an almost fool proof insurance policy. Only multiple injuries to key players will stop the C's.

 

[Fafnir]

I think this team will win it all even if they have injuries to the core 8. Sheed and Daniels give the C's an almost fool proof insurance policy. Only multiple injuries to key players will stop the C's.

 

The C's cannot survive an injury to KG or Rondo. Though winning a title without Ray/Pierce/Perk would be incredibly difficult.

[CoachCowens]

I think this team will win it all even if they have injuries to the core 8. Sheed and Daniels give the C's an almost fool proof insurance policy. Only multiple injuries to key players will stop the C's.

 

The C's cannot survive an injury to KG or Rondo. Though winning a title without Ray/Pierce/Perk would be incredibly difficult.

They were super close to going back to the ECF and Finals without KG last year. I don't think it's crazy to think, adding Sheed and Daniels to last years squad would have been enough to win it all. Rondo would be the tough one. Hudson is the closest to being a true PG behind him. I give them 75% chance of the title without Rondo

[Cman]

Side note: did anyone else see KG all in Williams' ear bigging him up after last night's game?  I saw the same thing with Perk and Powe year 1, and with Big Baby the last 2 years.  KG is a **** kingmaker with his younger teammates.

Nice, thanks for pointing that out. 

Just a quick word, though, on your calling out of the "experts" -- I think it will be harder than you expect.  In my opinion, it is rare that a writer will say one thing, and then turn around a few months later and say something opposite (of course it happens, though).  What is more likely is that a large number of writers will say something, then a few months later, a large number of different writers will say something different -- so the general perception has changed, but not necessarily the opinions/ positions of the writers.


For example, when you write

Now, 2 games in, I'm already seeing articles starting to big Williams up.  Just wait...by the time the season ends he'll have been a top-5 lottery pick that the Celtics gypped their way into getting and all of that "bust" talk will be forgotten about like all the pundits were with him all along...no you (freakin) wasn't!

... what you need to show is that whoever is bigging Williams up was denigrating him earlier (in other words, in line with your example, you need Protectthepaint to be on the Williams band wagon by the end of the year).

[Bahku]

Well, here's one guy who sees it our way:

http://realgm.com/src_feature_pieces/825/20091021/leroux%5Cs_2009_10_prediction_thread/

Celtics win the title, KG is DPOY and Finals MVP.  I'll take it.

Here's another, as Ian Thompsen is picking the Cs to beat the Lakers in the Finals.  So, not ALL media are off...

Frankly, I'd prefer it if all the media were against us ... I think this team thrives as an underdog, and it will make the victory next spring that much sweeter. Let them kiss Kobe's butt all they want ... we'll just kick it in the playoffs anyway.

[Hoops]

Just want to sign on to this thread. I believe this team is special. I feel about like I did in '07-'08 - I thought title then and I think title this year, as well.

I think the Spurs will be the West champ, but I hope to play the Lakers again. I want Kobe to forever be haunted by the fact that despite his 4 rings (I still think last year was kind of a fluke), he was never good enough to beat the Celtics. It'll eat at him every time he sees green for the rest of his life. 

[celticsclay]

Hey,

Wondering if the thoughts are as high on this after the last three games. Are we living the emotional boston roller coast ride?

[drza44]

I'm still very confident in this team.  They've hit a few weeks-long cold spell in each of the first two years that seemed to correspond with them having dead legs.  In this case we already knew that KG would have dead legs to start the season, though, and we saw last year that the team's D starts and ends with a healthy KG. 

But there are still plenty of positives for me.  The bench gives us new dimensions, Pierce and Ray show no signs of slippage, Rondo and Perk show signs of improvement in general, and KG is progressively getting better.  And though we have four losses, we could still very easily be undefeated with just a little bit better shooting from the line and the 3-point line.

I'm still ultra confident.

[cons]

The eternal optimist would say at the end of the year we'll look back at this stretch and say it made the team stronger.

i'm not sure if i'm the eternal optimist or not

[thirstyboots18]

Sure, you can be the eternal optimist.  You iterate it and I will reiterate it, ha ha ha!

[drza44]

Been some ups and downs in the early season since I started this thread.  Anyone changed their mind either way?

Anyway, I really bumped the thread because I never got back here and broke down the Hollinger preview like I had wanted to, but I figure better late than never:

Hollinger made his season preview predictions (54 wins for the Cs?!?) for a lot of sketchy reasons, including his PER stat.  But his in-season power rankings are tied almost entirely to the team scoring margin.  And that, right there, is what made Hollinger's preseason prediction idiotic.

Because PER was essentially something that Hollinger just came up with.  There was no science involved, he just played with a lot of box score stats until he found a formula that fit his notions of what a good player is.  If, historically, there is any predictive value in PER it is purely a side effect.

On the other hand, the team scoring margin as a predictor of team quality has been proven and re-proven by multiple different sources.  Hollinger has his version, but so do others like Berri and Sagarin. 

And by looking at their history of team scoring margin, it was idiotic to expect the Celtics to suddenly fall off the board barring significantly more injury.  To publish a prediction based purely upon a random stat and some very qualitative "analysis" when you have a lot of data in your possession from a better stat that gives more realistic results...that was just dumb.

I wanted to type this message out before Hollinger's new power rankings started coming out because it was a lead-pipe lock that the Cs would spend most of the year on top of that ranking, but alas I am late and the Cs have already taken a perch at the top.  Principle still applies, though...your stat might have the Cs on top, Hollinger, but as for you being in agreement with it all along...no you (freakin) wasn't!

[tenn_smoothie]

I'm not predicting 75 wins and fo-fo-fo-fo, but I do see a championship.  I think this is the best team in the NBA, and Shaq, Vince, Artest, etc. don't scare me at all.

I'll sticky this at the top of the forum for you, so you can update it as the season goes along.

mr. hobbs - why does orlando not scare you ? they scare me - and they are on a fresh 2-game losing streak as i write this.

[Prettyflaco]

Does anyone know where the find the best streaming feed for the celtics.  This year has been awful compared to last season..