Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED

[BigAlTheFuture]

Don't get the big deal. They get an extra ping pong ball. Let's wait til May 20th before we all get depressed fellas. I got a good feeling about this year!

[slamtheking]

here's some consolation for everyone

4th best odds:  3 firsts, 3 seconds, 6 thirds in the lottery.  12 jumps in total  -- moved up as recently as last year
5th best ods: 5 firsts, 6 seconds, 3 thirds. 14 jumps in total -- moved up 3 years ago.

5th best odds has been the better performer of the 2 slots over the years.  Has produced higher picks in those jumps AND is overdue for a return based on previous frequencies.

Take from this what you will since past history is not a guarantee of future performance but should hopefully keep people from jumping off the nearest ledge.

[Roy H.]

here's some consolation for everyone

4th best odds:  3 firsts, 3 seconds, 6 thirds in the lottery.  12 jumps in total  -- moved up as recently as last year
5th best ods: 5 firsts, 6 seconds, 3 thirds. 14 jumps in total -- moved up 3 years ago.

5th best odds has been the better performer of the 2 slots over the years.  Has produced higher picks in those jumps AND is overdue for a return based on previous frequencies.

Take from this what you will since past history is not a guarantee of future performance but should hopefully keep people from jumping off the nearest ledge.

What does regression to the mean tell us about this?

[Quetzalcoatl]

The worse off between two teams tied for fourth is still better than being a "true 5th place team" right? 

It's too bad that there is almost no chance of us getting Exum unless Randle goes 5th, though.  Does Cleveland have their pick still?  There is still hope if that is true

/Also, 666th post!  I think instead of being Jeff Green, I should be a Laker for just this one number or something like that.  If it was a Pats board, I would say Bernard Pollard

[slamtheking]

here's some consolation for everyone

4th best odds:  3 firsts, 3 seconds, 6 thirds in the lottery.  12 jumps in total  -- moved up as recently as last year
5th best ods: 5 firsts, 6 seconds, 3 thirds. 14 jumps in total -- moved up 3 years ago.

5th best odds has been the better performer of the 2 slots over the years.  Has produced higher picks in those jumps AND is overdue for a return based on previous frequencies.

Take from this what you will since past history is not a guarantee of future performance but should hopefully keep people from jumping off the nearest ledge.

What does regression to the mean tell us about this?

It means it's the pessimists way of peeing on the legs of optimists

[317]

the downside is not in the 1 ping pong ball but in the difference between 4 and 5, 5 and 6, 6 and 7 and 7 and 8.

[Lucky17]

This is much more than a minor stomach punch....ugh we get screwed every dang time. 

Except for the time today where Boston won the flip and got the 17th pick.

[nzea]

No idea... but let's hope the coin flip doesn't matter and we end up in the Top 3.

in looking at recent drafts the four and five spots have been pretty luck at landing a top 3 pick so there's that

1985

Pick 1 - 3rd best odds
Pick 2 - 1st best odds
Pick 3 - 5th best odds

1986

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 4th

1987

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 7th
Pick 3 - 3rd

1988

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 7th
Pick 3 - 6th

1989

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 3rd
Pick 3 - 4th

1990

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 10th
Pick 3 - 2nd

1991

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 3rd

1992

Pick 1 - 2nd
Pick 2 - 8th
Pick 3 - 4th

1993

Pick 1 - 11th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 7th

1994

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 2nd

1995

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 1st

1996

Pick 1 - 2nd
Pick 2 - 3rd
Pick 3 - 1st

1997

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 2nd (Boston/Billups)

1998

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 1st

1999

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 13th

2000

Pick 1 - 7th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 1st

2001

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 8th
Pick 3 - 5th

2002

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 2nd
Pick 3 - 1st

2003

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 2nd

2004

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 2nd

2005

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 4th

2006

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 2nd
Pick 3 - 3rd

2007

Pick 1 - 7th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 4th

2008

Pick 1 - 9th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 3rd

2009

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 4th

2010

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 1st

2011

Pick 1 - 8th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 6th

2012

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 2nd

2013

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 8th

4 times in 29 years the 1st team has gotten the 1st overall lol.

[mmmmm]

So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

That's a little misleading - as Harry said, the odds of top 3 stay about the same, the increased odds of "top 4" are almost entirely just increased odds of #4.  Which is still good, but it doesn't move the needle much on the odds of 1-3.

The biggest difference to me is that if we don't move up and get leapfrogged by one team (the most probable outcome in either spot, I believe) we pick 5th instead of 6th.  And there's nearly no chance of falling out of the top 6, whereas that's more likely in the 5 spot.

If neither team gets leapfrogged and the top 3 goes as the odds dictate (Bucks, Philly, Orlando), winner of the coin flip will pick 4th and the loser will pick 5th.  So if you see this as a 4 player draft... the coin flip is kind of important.

Winner of the coin flip can't fall below 7.  Loser can't fall below 8.

Yes, though the odds dictate that the top 3 WON'T go that way.  Collectively, the field has greater than 50% odds of cracking the top-3, forcing one of those three teams down to the 4th, 5th or 6th spot.

Remember, Orlando has a 53.1% chance of falling out of the top 3.
Plus Philadelphia hasa 44.2% chance of falling out of the top 3.
Plus Milwaukee has a 35.8% chance of falling out of the top 3.

'Just need one of those to occur so even without thinking about the exact probability addition method to use, I can see that the odds strongly favor a team from the field cracking into the top 3.

[slamtheking]

So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

That's a little misleading - as Harry said, the odds of top 3 stay about the same, the increased odds of "top 4" are almost entirely just increased odds of #4.  Which is still good, but it doesn't move the needle much on the odds of 1-3.

The biggest difference to me is that if we don't move up and get leapfrogged by one team (the most probable outcome in either spot, I believe) we pick 5th instead of 6th.  And there's nearly no chance of falling out of the top 6, whereas that's more likely in the 5 spot.

If neither team gets leapfrogged and the top 3 goes as the odds dictate (Bucks, Philly, Orlando), winner of the coin flip will pick 4th and the loser will pick 5th.  So if you see this as a 4 player draft... the coin flip is kind of important.

Winner of the coin flip can't fall below 7.  Loser can't fall below 8.

Yes, though the odds dictate that the top 3 WON'T go that way.  Collectively, the field has greater than 50% odds of cracking the top-3, forcing one of those three teams down to the 4th, 5th or 6th spot.

Remember, Orlando has a 53.1% chance of falling out of the top 3.
Plus Philadelphia hasa 44.2% chance of falling out of the top 3.
Plus Milwaukee has a 35.8% chance of falling out of the top 3.

'Just need one of those to occur so even without thinking about the exact probability addition method to use, I can see that the odds strongly favor a team from the field cracking into the top 3.

to add to that, there's only been 1 year where the top 3 teams all picked in the top 3 -- with the worst team ending up with the 3rd pick

[Rondo9]

It could be worse, the Celtics could be in the Lakers draft position.....

[Mencius]

Boston chance to end up 6-8 = 42.7%

Utah's chance to end up 6-8 = 19%

Very disappointing.  Sadly, being a Boston fan, one comes to expect that luck won't be on our side.  To win, we have to do it on our own, and to hell with luck.  Our own fault.  Should have lost a couple more games.

[obnoxiousmime]

It would really stink if Randle didn't declare and we got the sixth pick, then Vonleh and Exum are taken 4th and 5th. Not that I hate Smart or Gordon but one is not a huge need and the other has high bust potential. I think I would take Smart and figure it out later.

Also, the tiebreaker being a coin flip is stupid. They should give the team with the easier schedule the lower pick, which in this case was the Celtics. The Celtics won the same number of games against inferior competition, therefore they should be considered worse. A coin flip deciding something so important just seems lazy to me.

[lightspeed5]

Imagine we end up with the 8th pick and we get Doug McDermott. Haha

[heyvik]

On a side note, it's great that we're all sitting here obsessing about the Celtic's draft pick that will be decided in over a month.   I love the B's but I'll take Celtics talk over endless playoff 'talking-head' speculation any day.

Go C's; Go B's!

Agreed! there's nothing worse than wanting to talk C's during the evening rush but you can't bc the Bruins are playing! Times like these I tune into 850 AM - the Better alternative to Bruins talk!