Author Topic: Kemba’s got to go...  (Read 16399 times)

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Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #225 on: March 08, 2021, 09:18:47 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.
But they are great defenders (or at least very good at this point still).  It isn't so much Kemba's size, it is the fact that he isn't a good defender and being small with a smaller wing span doesn't help.  If you are 6'6" with a huge wing span, you can be a lesser defender and still be able to have an impact defensively, but you just don't have that when you are small and a bad defender.  And Kemba is a bad defender.  He isn't Irving and he isn't IT4, but he still is bad.

But is Kemba really a bad defender?

Yes, he can be pushed around and shot over when posted up close to the hoop.   But that is true of almost all small guards.  That doesn't make a player a bad defender.   It more often means he's in a system that doesn't prevent that mismatch.

On perimeter shot contention, Kemba is among our better players - his opponent 3PT% differential of -7.3% is fantastic, and 3rd best on our team behind just Smart and Tatum.

And Kemba is one of the best in the league at staying / getting in front of players and drawing charges.  He averages drawing a charge about once every 3rd game -- way more than even Marcus Smart (about 1 every 5 games).   And that has been true about Kemba for the prior couple of seasons as well.  These are real and significant defensive 'positives' that Kemba brings to the floor.

So far this year, the Celtics have had a Defensive Rating that is -1.6 points better without Kemba on the floor.  But since mid-January, the difference has been just -0.7.   That's hardly compelling evidence that he is any sort of big defensive albatross for us.  In fact, since Feb 1, the team has been -4.9 points per 100 better defensively with Kemba on the floor than without.

Last year, with Kemba in the starting lineup and consuming large minutes with this team, the Celtics were still the #4 defense.

Maybe he's not a great defender, and he's certainly a small defender,  but I don't think it's quite correct to say he is a bad defender.
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Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #226 on: March 08, 2021, 11:42:33 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.
But they are great defenders (or at least very good at this point still).  It isn't so much Kemba's size, it is the fact that he isn't a good defender and being small with a smaller wing span doesn't help.  If you are 6'6" with a huge wing span, you can be a lesser defender and still be able to have an impact defensively, but you just don't have that when you are small and a bad defender.  And Kemba is a bad defender.  He isn't Irving and he isn't IT4, but he still is bad.

But is Kemba really a bad defender?

Yes, he can be pushed around and shot over when posted up close to the hoop.   But that is true of almost all small guards.  That doesn't make a player a bad defender.   It more often means he's in a system that doesn't prevent that mismatch.

On perimeter shot contention, Kemba is among our better players - his opponent 3PT% differential of -7.3% is fantastic, and 3rd best on our team behind just Smart and Tatum.

And Kemba is one of the best in the league at staying / getting in front of players and drawing charges.  He averages drawing a charge about once every 3rd game -- way more than even Marcus Smart (about 1 every 5 games).   And that has been true about Kemba for the prior couple of seasons as well.  These are real and significant defensive 'positives' that Kemba brings to the floor.

So far this year, the Celtics have had a Defensive Rating that is -1.6 points better without Kemba on the floor.  But since mid-January, the difference has been just -0.7.   That's hardly compelling evidence that he is any sort of big defensive albatross for us.  In fact, since Feb 1, the team has been -4.9 points per 100 better defensively with Kemba on the floor than without.

Last year, with Kemba in the starting lineup and consuming large minutes with this team, the Celtics were still the #4 defense.

Maybe he's not a great defender, and he's certainly a small defender,  but I don't think it's quite correct to say he is a bad defender.


For sure.  People act like he's an Isaiah Thomas level liability.  He's nowhere close.

In fact despite his size I would say he's a lot better to have on that end than Kyrie was, just because Kyrie was so inconsistent in the effort he would offer.

League wide, many of the best teams have point guards who don't make much of an impact defensively.

It's far worse to have a point guard who can't shoot or who isn't a threat to score off the dribble than to have a guy who is a mediocre or even poor defender.  If your point guard consistently gives effort and stays focused on defense, that's about as good as you need.
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Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #227 on: March 08, 2021, 01:11:38 PM »

Offline colincb

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Over the last 10 games, the Celtics have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor. Tatum, by comparison, has a minus-1.0 net rating during the stretch.

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #228 on: March 08, 2021, 10:30:05 PM »

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Over the last 10 games, the Celtics have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor. Tatum, by comparison, has a minus-1.0 net rating during the stretch.
Moranis won't like this
Fire Brad & Trade Smart

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #229 on: March 09, 2021, 12:03:04 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Over the last 10 games, the Celtics have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor. Tatum, by comparison, has a minus-1.0 net rating during the stretch.
Moranis won't like this
He has come back down some recently (Atlanta is a bad match-up for him and there were 3 Atlanta games in there), but still does lead the team at +7.1 per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. off.  It is more like the last 15 games as well.  He just hasn't been his normal self of late.  Perhaps it is the covid, or perhaps it is a just a bad stretch of games.  Small sample sizes don't hold much value.  Years and years of data is far more reliable.
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PG - Tiny Archibald 73, Don Buse 77, Terrell Brandon 96
SG - Chet Walker 67, Michael Cooper 87, Raja Bell 06
SF - Predrag "Peja" Stojakovic 04, Kiki Vandeweghe 87, Robert Covington 18
PF - Karl Malone 97, Spencer Haywood 73, David West 08
C - Ben Wallace 04, George Mikan 50, Al Jefferson 08

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #230 on: March 09, 2021, 12:06:31 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.
But they are great defenders (or at least very good at this point still).  It isn't so much Kemba's size, it is the fact that he isn't a good defender and being small with a smaller wing span doesn't help.  If you are 6'6" with a huge wing span, you can be a lesser defender and still be able to have an impact defensively, but you just don't have that when you are small and a bad defender.  And Kemba is a bad defender.  He isn't Irving and he isn't IT4, but he still is bad.

But is Kemba really a bad defender?

Yes, he can be pushed around and shot over when posted up close to the hoop.   But that is true of almost all small guards.  That doesn't make a player a bad defender.   It more often means he's in a system that doesn't prevent that mismatch.

On perimeter shot contention, Kemba is among our better players - his opponent 3PT% differential of -7.3% is fantastic, and 3rd best on our team behind just Smart and Tatum.

And Kemba is one of the best in the league at staying / getting in front of players and drawing charges.  He averages drawing a charge about once every 3rd game -- way more than even Marcus Smart (about 1 every 5 games).   And that has been true about Kemba for the prior couple of seasons as well.  These are real and significant defensive 'positives' that Kemba brings to the floor.

So far this year, the Celtics have had a Defensive Rating that is -1.6 points better without Kemba on the floor.  But since mid-January, the difference has been just -0.7.   That's hardly compelling evidence that he is any sort of big defensive albatross for us.  In fact, since Feb 1, the team has been -4.9 points per 100 better defensively with Kemba on the floor than without.

Last year, with Kemba in the starting lineup and consuming large minutes with this team, the Celtics were still the #4 defense.

Maybe he's not a great defender, and he's certainly a small defender,  but I don't think it's quite correct to say he is a bad defender.
Yes, Kemba is a bad defender.  Of course Teague and Pritchard may be even worse, so I would actually think the team is better defensively with Kemba than without him.  With Smart healthy, I think those numbers change dramatically though because unlike Kemba, Teague, and Pritchard, Smart is not a bad defender (he is obviously an elite defender).  At no time in his career has Kemba been even an average defender for any long period of time. 
2021 Historical Draft - 5th Pick - Raptors
PG - Tiny Archibald 73, Don Buse 77, Terrell Brandon 96
SG - Chet Walker 67, Michael Cooper 87, Raja Bell 06
SF - Predrag "Peja" Stojakovic 04, Kiki Vandeweghe 87, Robert Covington 18
PF - Karl Malone 97, Spencer Haywood 73, David West 08
C - Ben Wallace 04, George Mikan 50, Al Jefferson 08

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #231 on: March 09, 2021, 01:01:32 AM »

Online gouki88

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Over the last 10 games, the Celtics have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor. Tatum, by comparison, has a minus-1.0 net rating during the stretch.
Moranis won't like this
He has come back down some recently (Atlanta is a bad match-up for him and there were 3 Atlanta games in there), but still does lead the team at +7.1 per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. off.  It is more like the last 15 games as well.  He just hasn't been his normal self of late.  Perhaps it is the covid, or perhaps it is a just a bad stretch of games.  Small sample sizes don't hold much value.  Years and years of data is far more reliable.
Yeah, it was tongue in cheek. I think he's suffering from C-19 after effects for sure
Fire Brad & Trade Smart

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #232 on: March 09, 2021, 03:56:32 AM »

Offline colincb

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Over the last 10 games, the Celtics have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor. Tatum, by comparison, has a minus-1.0 net rating during the stretch.
Moranis won't like this
He has come back down some recently (Atlanta is a bad match-up for him and there were 3 Atlanta games in there), but still does lead the team at +7.1 per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. off.  It is more like the last 15 games as well.  He just hasn't been his normal self of late.  Perhaps it is the covid, or perhaps it is a just a bad stretch of games.  Small sample sizes don't hold much value.  Years and years of data is far more reliable.

There's no smaller sample size than individual game's +/-.

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #233 on: March 09, 2021, 09:41:17 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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How is this thread aging?  All I can say is without kemba this team would be a rutterless ship.  He’s far and away the best playmaker on this team.  He getting the ball moving again.

I even love kemba on defense.  He’s feisty, stays in front of guys, and hustles.

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #234 on: March 09, 2021, 10:18:54 AM »

Offline tstorey_97

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My preferred line up would be an expensive power forward who can hit threes with a cheap point guard who can facilitate the pF and the J's with cheap Robert at center.

Basically the KG lineup for modern times.

Meanwhile, Kemba Walker and Robert Williams over the last ten games have been the Celtic's two best players.

Walker is 21.9 ppg 41.5% from three and 93% from the line, is running his butt off and barking at his mates to roll. When watching him on the court, look at how he wrecks opposing defenses as they chase him around trying to trap him. Then watch him get fouled because he knows how. 

Not a great idea to trade Walker right now, but, I don't see an expensive high volume shooting guard as the  best match for the J's and Robert next season.


 
« Last Edit: March 09, 2021, 10:23:57 AM by tstorey_97 »

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #235 on: March 09, 2021, 05:10:14 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.
But they are great defenders (or at least very good at this point still).  It isn't so much Kemba's size, it is the fact that he isn't a good defender and being small with a smaller wing span doesn't help.  If you are 6'6" with a huge wing span, you can be a lesser defender and still be able to have an impact defensively, but you just don't have that when you are small and a bad defender.  And Kemba is a bad defender.  He isn't Irving and he isn't IT4, but he still is bad.

But is Kemba really a bad defender?

Yes, he can be pushed around and shot over when posted up close to the hoop.   But that is true of almost all small guards.  That doesn't make a player a bad defender.   It more often means he's in a system that doesn't prevent that mismatch.

On perimeter shot contention, Kemba is among our better players - his opponent 3PT% differential of -7.3% is fantastic, and 3rd best on our team behind just Smart and Tatum.

And Kemba is one of the best in the league at staying / getting in front of players and drawing charges.  He averages drawing a charge about once every 3rd game -- way more than even Marcus Smart (about 1 every 5 games).   And that has been true about Kemba for the prior couple of seasons as well.  These are real and significant defensive 'positives' that Kemba brings to the floor.

So far this year, the Celtics have had a Defensive Rating that is -1.6 points better without Kemba on the floor.  But since mid-January, the difference has been just -0.7.   That's hardly compelling evidence that he is any sort of big defensive albatross for us.  In fact, since Feb 1, the team has been -4.9 points per 100 better defensively with Kemba on the floor than without.

Last year, with Kemba in the starting lineup and consuming large minutes with this team, the Celtics were still the #4 defense.

Maybe he's not a great defender, and he's certainly a small defender,  but I don't think it's quite correct to say he is a bad defender.
Yes, Kemba is a bad defender.  Of course Teague and Pritchard may be even worse, so I would actually think the team is better defensively with Kemba than without him.  With Smart healthy, I think those numbers change dramatically though because unlike Kemba, Teague, and Pritchard, Smart is not a bad defender (he is obviously an elite defender).  At no time in his career has Kemba been even an average defender for any long period of time.

The drawn-charges rate is across multiple seasons, not just recently. 

His excellence at defending opponent 3PT shooting extends back through last season's playoffs, where he posted a -6.3% differential.  That's a sample of 37 games.   Prior to that, over the prior 4 regular seasons he was always within +/- 2% of 'average' at defending threes.

The 5-man lineup of Kemba+Smart+Jaylen+Jayson+Theis last year, over a 401 minute sample, held opponents to a stifling 102.2 points per 100 possessions last year, including playoffs.   It seems amazing that could happen with such a bad defender on the floor.

I suppose you will assert that he was being 'carried' by the defense of his teammates - but even if so, it still shows he's not an unmanageable albatross on defense.

If All-Defense Smart is your comparison, then sure, Kemba is, by comparison, a 'bad defender'.  But Smart isn't an 'average' defender.   Who exactly is your 'average defender' comparison among Kemba's peers (elite point-creation quick-guards)?

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Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #236 on: March 09, 2021, 06:35:19 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I think for a PG, Kemba is fairly average, and maybe just a tiny, tiny bit less than average defensively. The opinions that he is some truly awful defender, to me, were almost never heard last year until his knee acted up bad in the last 8-9 games of the playoffs.

Then word got out about the rehab he was taking for his knee, and before Kemba was even able to return and given time to get his legs under him, suddenly Kemba was the next coming of a hobbled IT and his size was a major factor.

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #237 on: March 10, 2021, 01:25:31 AM »

Offline colincb

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I think for a PG, Kemba is fairly average, and maybe just a tiny, tiny bit less than average defensively. The opinions that he is some truly awful defender, to me, were almost never heard last year until his knee acted up bad in the last 8-9 games of the playoffs.

Then word got out about the rehab he was taking for his knee, and before Kemba was even able to return and given time to get his legs under him, suddenly Kemba was the next coming of a hobbled IT and his size was a major factor.

Defensive REAL +/- had Walker averaged at the 49th percentile for the three seasons from 2018-2020 seasons and 538's Overall Defensive RAPTOR has Walker rated higher at the 69th percentile. RAPTOR appears to put more emphasis on taking charges, deflections, and contesting shots and less on uncontested defensive rebounding and blocks. That slant would certainly help Kemba.

Defensive Real +/- noted a significant decline in 2020 from above moderately above-average ratings( that may be attributable to injury). Overall Defensive RAPTOR notes a modest decline in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2019. In 2020, REAL +/- has KW stabilizing at a below-average rating and RAPTOR has Walker improving dramatically. Go figure, but we're talking much smaller sample sizes for KW in 2021 than the other years.

Both advanced stats show Walker as an above-average defender in 2018 and 2019 and diverge thereafter.

REAL+/-    57th, 62nd, 28th, and 27th percentile for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively.
RAPTOR     65th, 76th, 64th, and 94th percentile for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively.

(In the unlikely case that someone cares to replicate this, I had to find KW's rating for Defensive REAL +/- in the entire 2018 NBA data and then add him to the sort for PGs for 2018 even though he was designated as a PG.)

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

Re: Kemba’s got to go...
« Reply #238 on: March 10, 2021, 09:21:20 AM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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Kemba will be fine. By the end of this season a lot of you guys on here will be singing his praises.
Looks like Thursday will be eat crow day for this post.
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