Kemba’s got to go...

[Smartacus]

Should we trade kemba? Without question, considering we shouldn't have brought him in here in the 1st place as he presents the same issues IT did. Stupid move.

But the problem is no one wants kemba because of the IT similarities and now the injury.

So we are stuck with him, the best we can hope for is kemba becomes more of a PG now because everything that made him what he was is gone. He needs to reconstruct his game.

Respectfully GreenWarrior you just vocalized exactly the disagreement I have with the trade Kemba crowd.

Claim 1 - Signing Kemba was the wrong move
Ludacris. Losing Kyrie the way we did to a conference rival would have sent this team into a tailspin and set Tatum and Brown's development back. Kemba silenced the noise and kept us in finals contention. It was the correct move at the time and we were fortunate to have him.

Claim 2 - Kemba presents the same issues as IT
Slanderous. Kemba had consectutive years of all NBA level production before signing with us while IT was once of league's greatest examples of a flash in the pan. Kemba is significantly taller than IT, a better defender, and doesn't rely on palming the ball and BS free throw attempts like IT did which I believe the league was about to crack down on.

Kemba is closer to Damian Lillard than IT and now that he's back healthy he's vital to this team's post season success.

I know the rumors about DA trying to give him away earlier this year but its clear that DA also has a lot of enemies out there who run to the media anytime DA makes a phone call. That's not to say Kemba's untradeable it would just be for real value not a salary dump.

IMO Kemba isn't going anywhere and I look forward to these threads dying off.

[td450]

Should we trade kemba? Without question, considering we shouldn't have brought him in here in the 1st place as he presents the same issues IT did. Stupid move.

But the problem is no one wants kemba because of the IT similarities and now the injury.

So we are stuck with him, the best we can hope for is kemba becomes more of a PG now because everything that made him what he was is gone. He needs to reconstruct his game.

Respectfully GreenWarrior you just vocalized exactly the disagreement I have with the trade Kemba crowd.

Claim 1 - Signing Kemba was the wrong move
Ludacris. Losing Kyrie the way we did to a conference rival would have sent this team into a tailspin and set Tatum and Brown's development back. Kemba silenced the noise and kept us in finals contention. It was the correct move at the time and we were fortunate to have him.

Claim 2 - Kemba presents the same issues as IT
Slanderous. Kemba had consectutive years of all NBA level production before signing with us while IT was once of league's greatest examples of a flash in the pan. Kemba is significantly taller than IT, a better defender, and doesn't rely on palming the ball and BS free throw attempts like IT did which I believe the league was about to crack down on.

Kemba is closer to Damian Lillard than IT and now that he's back healthy he's vital to this team's post season success.

I know the rumors about DA trying to give him away earlier this year but its clear that DA also has a lot of enemies out there who run to the media anytime DA makes a phone call. That's not to say Kemba's untradeable it would just be for real value not a salary dump.

IMO Kemba isn't going anywhere and I look forward to these threads dying off.

Not having Kemba is not the same as not doing anything. There are a number of larger guards that can defend and make plays for others that would have been much better for the franchise. We'll never know if we could have signed Malcom Brogdon, but that would have been ideal in retrospect.

We have Tatum, Brown and Smart, and the team's best identity is as an aggressive switching defensive team. Walker detracts from that.

Signing Walker made Hayward's role dismal. We would have had a chance of keeping him if we hadn't gone with Walker.

The Lilliard comparison is really really difficult to swallow.

[Somebody]

I haven't bothered to reply to the 'Kemba is a poor fit' posts for a while but I'll now bite. In what way does Kemba fit poorly with our players on offence? Sure he isn't an off ball savant, but his mode of attack in general isn't very ball dominant: he makes quick decisions with the ball, moves off the ball quite well and is actually quite good at some off-ball actions (eg. coming off a screen or DHO to receive the ball for an open shot or drive). If anything Tatum's game is the least scalable out of our three offensive stars due to his tendency to overdribble, high viscosity isolation game and tunnel vision in some spots.

[colincb]

Should we trade kemba? Without question, considering we shouldn't have brought him in here in the 1st place as he presents the same issues IT did. Stupid move.

But the problem is no one wants kemba because of the IT similarities and now the injury.

So we are stuck with him, the best we can hope for is kemba becomes more of a PG now because everything that made him what he was is gone. He needs to reconstruct his game.

Kemba's a much better defender than IT and at 6-0 feet, taller by 3 inches. Much better defender than Kyrie too. If people don’t want Kemba, it’s because of his knees, not his defense.

His defensive RAPTOR numbers per 538.com have averaged 17th among PGs from 2015-21 (7 seasons) compared to IT averaging 61st from 2015-17 (last 3 seasons healthy); compared to KI averaging 50th from 2015-19 and 2021(6 seasons), and MS averaging 6th best from 2015-19 (5 seasons). Smart's is now considered to be a SG starting last season. (RAPTOR applies a minimum minutes screen as compared to NBA.com, which doesn't appear to offer that type of filter)

I was surprised at Kemba being quite that high, but not at IT and KI being that low and Kemba being superior to both to my eyes. IT at 5-9 was so small anyone could post him up and Kyrie at 6-2 was lazy defensively in CLE although better since, but still below KW. When you dig down into some of the numbers that RAPTOR incorporates in addition to box score and adjusted +/-, it makes more sense.

According to NBA.com advanced stats, of 259 players in 2021 who have played at one of the two guard positions this season (Tatum has for example). Kemba's 1st in charges drawn per game, (which generates an extra possession), 37th in deflections per game. and 72nd in contested shots per game (which are both indicators of defensive activity and effort). Kemba’s certainly not an elite defender like Smart, but he’s a very willing and active one.

[celts55]

Okay, this may sound stupid, but I hope they don’t trade him because I like him. I think he has a great attitude and is the perfect person to the young guys to emulate. Always has a big smile and seems to have a genuine joy in playing. I really love watching him. He’s a guy that’s easy to root for.
He also seems fine with the J’s being 1&2. I think he really loves watching the young players on the team grow and mature.
I’d take a guy like that on my team any day

[cman88]

last 10 games, Kemba has put up 21.6 PPG on 42% shooting and 37% from 3

his last 5 games in points, 15, 25, 21, 32 and 21.

I dont think he should be in discussion right now as a problem. Hes finally rounding into form

[mmmmm]

Should we trade kemba? Without question, considering we shouldn't have brought him in here in the 1st place as he presents the same issues IT did. Stupid move.

But the problem is no one wants kemba because of the IT similarities and now the injury.

So we are stuck with him, the best we can hope for is kemba becomes more of a PG now because everything that made him what he was is gone. He needs to reconstruct his game.

Respectfully GreenWarrior you just vocalized exactly the disagreement I have with the trade Kemba crowd.

Claim 1 - Signing Kemba was the wrong move
Ludacris. Losing Kyrie the way we did to a conference rival would have sent this team into a tailspin and set Tatum and Brown's development back. Kemba silenced the noise and kept us in finals contention. It was the correct move at the time and we were fortunate to have him.

Claim 2 - Kemba presents the same issues as IT
Slanderous. Kemba had consectutive years of all NBA level production before signing with us while IT was once of league's greatest examples of a flash in the pan. Kemba is significantly taller than IT, a better defender, and doesn't rely on palming the ball and BS free throw attempts like IT did which I believe the league was about to crack down on.

Kemba is closer to Damian Lillard than IT and now that he's back healthy he's vital to this team's post season success.

I know the rumors about DA trying to give him away earlier this year but its clear that DA also has a lot of enemies out there who run to the media anytime DA makes a phone call. That's not to say Kemba's untradeable it would just be for real value not a salary dump.

IMO Kemba isn't going anywhere and I look forward to these threads dying off.

I concur with almost everything in this post except a small quibble with, "Kemba is significantly taller than IT".   That's not effectively true.

Kemba is taller to the top of his head ( 6' 0" vs 5' 9", barefoot).   But both have the exact same standing reach (7' 7.5"), which is arguably a much more relevant metric.

They are listed at almost identical weights, but I'm pretty sure Isaiah is heavier, at least he sure looked bigger during his peak year.

Other than that quibble, I concur with your larger points.

[RodyTur10]

It does look like Kemba is back to his old self, which is great either way. There's a reasonable argument to be made that Kemba is a top 30/40 player and a top 10 point guard in the NBA in that case.

However there's a difference between regular season basketball and playoff basketball. The defense tightens, more half court play and weaknesses get exploited. We saw it with Isaiah Thomas who was the spearhead of the Celtics during 15-17, but couldn't get it done in the playoffs (aside a game here and there). The guy who carried the team was Al Horford.

When you have a player that has a specific weakness. Being undersized, inability to shoot, inability to switch on defense or defend pick-and-roll, then teams will haunt that like a shark who smells blood. It's why the Sixers let go of JJ Redick, despite him being a formidable weapon in hand-offs with Embiid.

The lack of defensive switchability of Walker is a problem. The question is whether his offense makes up for his defensive vulnerability. With his good but not very efficient scoring and his average playmaking skills for a guard I don't believe that is the case.

There are still a lot of games to play, but I expect that at the end of the year the following teams will make the playoffs (based on current records, point differential, injuries, betting odds and strength of schedule).

East: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Miami, Boston, Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta
West: Utah, Phoenix, Denver, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Portland, Dallas, Golden State

The respective point guards can be sorted into 3 groups. Stars, small group of players who are better than Walker without question and yes that includes a guy we dislike in Irving. Above average point guards I prefer over Walker mainly due to defensive versatility. And the third group consists of point guards who I believe to be inferior to Walker.

Stars
Irving (Brooklyn)
Young (Atlanta)
Lillard (Portland)
Stephen Curry (Golden State)

Prefer (mainly) because of defensive versatility
Holiday (Milwaukee)
Lowry (Toronto)
Brogdon (Indiana)
Murray (Denver)
Conley (Utah)
Paul (Phoenix)

Inferior guards
Seth Curry (Philadelphia)
Dragic (Miami)
Beverley (LA Clippers)
Schröder (LA Lakers)
Richardson (Dallas)

So I'd take 10 of 15 starting point guards over Kemba and that makes him a below average playoff starter in my book and not worthy of $35M a year for the Celtics.

[colincb]

It does look like Kemba is back to his old self, which is great either way. There's a reasonable argument to be made that Kemba is a top 30/40 player and a top 10 point guard in the NBA in that case.

However there's a difference between regular season basketball and playoff basketball. The defense tightens, more half court play and weaknesses get exploited. We saw it with Isaiah Thomas who was the spearhead of the Celtics during 15-17, but couldn't get it done in the playoffs (aside a game here and there). The guy who carried the team was Al Horford.

When you have a player that has a specific weakness. Being undersized, inability to shoot, inability to switch on defense or defend pick-and-roll, then teams will haunt that like a shark who smells blood. It's why the Sixers let go of JJ Redick, despite him being a formidable weapon in hand-offs with Embiid.

The lack of defensive switchability of Walker is a problem. The question is whether his offense makes up for his defensive vulnerability. With his good but not very efficient scoring and his average playmaking skills for a guard I don't believe that is the case.

There are still a lot of games to play, but I expect that at the end of the year the following teams will make the playoffs (based on current records, point differential, injuries, betting odds and strength of schedule).

East: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Miami, Boston, Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta
West: Utah, Phoenix, Denver, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Portland, Dallas, Golden State

The respective point guards can be sorted into 3 groups. Stars, small group of players who are better than Walker without question and yes that includes a guy we dislike in Irving. Above average point guards I prefer over Walker mainly due to defensive versatility. And the third group consists of point guards who I believe to be inferior to Walker.

Stars
Irving (Brooklyn)
Young (Atlanta)
Lillard (Portland)
Stephen Curry (Golden State)

Prefer (mainly) because of defensive versatility
Holiday (Milwaukee)
Lowry (Toronto)
Brogdon (Indiana)
Murray (Denver)
Conley (Utah)
Paul (Phoenix)

Inferior guards
Seth Curry (Philadelphia)
Dragic (Miami)
Beverley (LA Clippers)
Schröder (LA Lakers)
Richardson (Dallas)

So I'd take 10 of 15 starting point guards over Kemba and that makes him a below average playoff starter in my book and not worthy of $35M a year for the Celtics.

Here are the overall RAPTOR ratings for 2021 for the PG position for the 16 playoff teams you listed. The Nets have 2 PGs on the list. Holiday is listed as a SG, maybe because he's 3rd on the Bucks in assists. Otherwise, he'd be 8th right behind Kemba and every else would move down 1 slot. Kemba's overall RAPTOR PG ranking for the prior 5 years are 5, 8, 6, 5, and 6 from 2016 to 2020, so he's been very consistent with this year's #7 PG ranking.

1   Mike Conley   Jazz   8.9
2   LeBron James   Lakers   6.6
3   Stephen Curry   Warriors   6.3
4   Jamal Murray   Nuggets   5.5
5   Luka Doncic   Mavericks   5.2
6   James Harden   Nets   5.1
7   Kemba Walker   Celtics   4.7
9   Damian Lillard   Trail Blazers   3.7
10   Kyrie Irving   Nets   3.6
11   Trae Young   Hawks   3.4
12   Chris Paul           Suns   3.3
13   Ben Simmons   76ers   3.1
19   Patrick Beverley   Clippers   2
19   Kyle Lowry   Raptors   2
37   Malcolm Brogdon   Pacers   -0.2
40   Goran Dragic   Heat   -0.8

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/
.

[LilRip]

It does look like Kemba is back to his old self, which is great either way. There's a reasonable argument to be made that Kemba is a top 30/40 player and a top 10 point guard in the NBA in that case.

However there's a difference between regular season basketball and playoff basketball. The defense tightens, more half court play and weaknesses get exploited. We saw it with Isaiah Thomas who was the spearhead of the Celtics during 15-17, but couldn't get it done in the playoffs (aside a game here and there). The guy who carried the team was Al Horford.

When you have a player that has a specific weakness. Being undersized, inability to shoot, inability to switch on defense or defend pick-and-roll, then teams will haunt that like a shark who smells blood. It's why the Sixers let go of JJ Redick, despite him being a formidable weapon in hand-offs with Embiid.

The lack of defensive switchability of Walker is a problem. The question is whether his offense makes up for his defensive vulnerability. With his good but not very efficient scoring and his average playmaking skills for a guard I don't believe that is the case.

I think it’s the problem of every team whose best player is a PG, and it needs someone of Steph Curry’s ability to overcome it (aka that player can’t be just a great shooter but has to be one of the greatest shooters of all time)

Fortunately for us, Tatum is now our best player. Our Lebron, if you will. This puts Kemba in the secondary star position, or our Kyrie, if you will. Obviously, Tatum is not on Lebron level so we’re not a contender this year. But at least this means that how far this team goes will depend more on Tatum’s development rather than how far Kemba can carry us.

[nickagneta]

Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.

[colincb]

Only 16 of 62 listed PGs have a positive defensive RAPTOR rating this season.

Of the 17 players I listed in the third post up from here, only Conley (ranked #1), Kemba (4), Simmons ( Beverly (9), Lebron (10), Murray (11), and Holiday (tied for #11 if he was classified as a PG) have positive defensive Raptor ratings. The worst of rest are Brogdon (40), Harden (44), Irving (45), Curry (46), Young (50), and Lilliard (60). All are taller than Kemba.

[Moranis]

Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.

But they are great defenders (or at least very good at this point still).  It isn't so much Kemba's size, it is the fact that he isn't a good defender and being small with a smaller wing span doesn't help.  If you are 6'6" with a huge wing span, you can be a lesser defender and still be able to have an impact defensively, but you just don't have that when you are small and a bad defender.  And Kemba is a bad defender.  He isn't Irving and he isn't IT4, but he still is bad. 

[Somebody]

Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.

But they are great defenders (or at least very good at this point still).  It isn't so much Kemba's size, it is the fact that he isn't a good defender and being small with a smaller wing span doesn't help.  If you are 6'6" with a huge wing span, you can be a lesser defender and still be able to have an impact defensively, but you just don't have that when you are small and a bad defender.  And Kemba is a bad defender.  He isn't Irving and he isn't IT4, but he still is bad.

To be fair having good size and length only prevents you from being a horrifically bad defender if you don't have good instincts/motor/awareness/etc on that end of the floor. But yeah Lowry and CP3 are good to great defenders in spite of their size due to their great intangibles and some physical traits (eg. their girth, strength, etc), not because of it.

I do think that Kemba isn't as much of a liability as people are making him out to be though. He's quite smart defensively (he makes some pretty good rotations for a small offence-first guard), has the quickness and feistiness to be a decent point of attack player and some of his intangibles (eg. his ability to draw charges) help him out in switches. I think advanced +/- metrics this season like RAPTOR and EPM reflect his ability to be a slight positive when he's locked in defensively under the right scheme next to versatile and switchy defenders - he's not going to tank our defence in the playoffs even when teams start targeting his lack of size/strength.

[td450]

Six foot tall Kemba is a defensive liability but six foot tall Chris Paul and six foot tall Kyle Lowry aren't.

That logic makes zero sense to me.

Kemba plays solid defense on the ball. He has pretty active hands and he is good at taking charges.

He's terrible at getting around picks, he's really, really bad at positioning and keeping contact with his man off the ball, and he's really easy to push around down low. He never boxes out. He gets easily distracted off the ball and often drifts out of position.

Lowry and Paul are awesome at all of those things. They are just as short as Kemba, but much thicker and stronger, especially through the legs, and can body up with almost anyone. They get into bigger players and they have the leverage because they have the lower center of gravity. They constantly find the best spot to be disruptive, and work every second, on the ball or off.