Cap Gurus: Is This The Way To S&T Rozier For AD?

[JBcat]

I’m liking this trade idea more and more, but something else I’ve been thinking is if the Grizzlies pick is necessary to include as that pick could be gold in a potential great draft at the top.

If Tatum is our prime trade chip that trumps other teams best single trade chip (Knicks getting 1st or 2nd pick will have at the very least similar value) maybe we can hold onto that Grizzlies pick.

Let’s compare directly to Lakers offer that was thrown out there.

Tatum beats out Ingram.

Starter Rozier just might be better than Ball now, although Ball still has the higher upside.

Williams verses Kuzma.  Kuzma is polarizing.  He averages almost 20 a game, but is almost 25 seems like a chucker shooting 30% from 3 and doesn’t provide much defense.  How much does he really add to winning?  Williams on the other hand has tantalizing Clint Capella talent maybe more at 21 in an area that really impacts winning.

The Lakers 2 number 1 picks (including this year) probably hold very similar value to the Kings and Clippers pick (at this moment remaining end of season and ping pong balls could change things).

In the end with these 2 trade packages you probably take the Celtics because of Tatum.

The Grizzlies pick might be viewed as the 2nd best asset out of everything listed here if you included it.

If you look at the KG trade even though 31 at the time still a top 5 player, but he also had 1 year left on his contract.  Al Jefferson was the golden piece of that trade (to compare Tatum probably trumps Al as well).  The rest was just kind of blah Gomes, Telfair, Green, Ratliff (salary filler), 2 future firsts (think they were both our own picks but could be wrong).  You could argue Rozier (starter Rozier that is lol) is better than anything after Jefferson in that trade.

Actually in 2007, Gerald Green at just 20 years old was still considered a very good prospect with huge potential upside. And the Wolves got 2 2009 1st rounders from Boston.

The 28th, that was Boston's where they took Wayne Ellington but left DeJuan Blair, Jonas Jerebko, Patrick Beverly, Patty Mills and Danny Green on the board.

And

The 6th pick, their own pick, that Boston had gotten in the Wally Szczerbiak trade. The Wolves took Jonny Flynn. With the 7th pick Golden State took Steph Curry.

That Minnesota pick was going to be gold because it was obvious Minny was blowing it up and the 2009 Minny pick was going to be a good lottery pick. Kahn was just an idiot and decided to draft 3 PGs in a draft with none of the 3 being Steph Curry, even though they had 2 shots at him.

Yeah I guess that’s somewhat true about Green, but that Celtics team was putrid (I think we lost almost 20 straight), and scoring had to come from somewhere. I remember we were talking like he’s the next TMac, but Green didn’t last a season with the Wolves, and was playing in Russia 2 years later.

I had forgotten one of those picks was the Wolves own pick.  Yeah that would have been viewed as a prime piece of that trade, and they did royally screw that up. Lol

[footey]

I like the idea of creating value out of Terry's contract, for sure.

I just wonder whether we would offer this much without a commitment from AD beyond one year.  This team doesn't need another FA circus year, and we will feel awful if he walks after that one year.

Is he eligible to sign an extension this summer with us?  For how many years?  How many years is enough for us to take the risk? I say two years min., otherwise we can't offer Tatum.  Two years is a safe bet that we will be in the finals at least once with that squad, although you never know.

[Roy H.]

I like the idea of creating value out of Terry's contract, for sure.

I just wonder whether we would offer this much without a commitment from AD beyond one year.  This team doesn't need another FA circus year, and we will feel awful if he walks after that one year.

Is he eligible to sign an extension this summer with us?  For how many years?  How many years is enough for us to take the risk? I say two years min., otherwise we can't offer Tatum.  Two years is a safe bet that we will be in the finals at least once with that squad, although you never know.

Due to funky rules in the CBA, Davis won't sign an extension with anybody this summer.  He'd end up losing many millions of dollars.  The best we'll get is a verbal commitment, akin to Kyrie (i.e., an "engagement", rather than a marriage.)

[nickagneta]

I’m liking this trade idea more and more, but something else I’ve been thinking is if the Grizzlies pick is necessary to include as that pick could be gold in a potential great draft at the top.

If Tatum is our prime trade chip that trumps other teams best single trade chip (Knicks getting 1st or 2nd pick will have at the very least similar value) maybe we can hold onto that Grizzlies pick.

Let’s compare directly to Lakers offer that was thrown out there.

Tatum beats out Ingram.

Starter Rozier just might be better than Ball now, although Ball still has the higher upside.

Williams verses Kuzma.  Kuzma is polarizing.  He averages almost 20 a game, but is almost 25 seems like a chucker shooting 30% from 3 and doesn’t provide much defense.  How much does he really add to winning?  Williams on the other hand has tantalizing Clint Capella talent maybe more at 21 in an area that really impacts winning.

The Lakers 2 number 1 picks (including this year) probably hold very similar value to the Kings and Clippers pick (at this moment remaining end of season and ping pong balls could change things).

In the end with these 2 trade packages you probably take the Celtics because of Tatum.

The Grizzlies pick might be viewed as the 2nd best asset out of everything listed here if you included it.

If you look at the KG trade even though 31 at the time still a top 5 player, but he also had 1 year left on his contract.  Al Jefferson was the golden piece of that trade (to compare Tatum probably trumps Al as well).  The rest was just kind of blah Gomes, Telfair, Green, Ratliff (salary filler), 2 future firsts (think they were both our own picks but could be wrong).  You could argue Rozier (starter Rozier that is lol) is better than anything after Jefferson in that trade.

Actually in 2007, Gerald Green at just 20 years old was still considered a very good prospect with huge potential upside. And the Wolves got 2 2009 1st rounders from Boston.

The 28th, that was Boston's where they took Wayne Ellington but left DeJuan Blair, Jonas Jerebko, Patrick Beverly, Patty Mills and Danny Green on the board.

And

The 6th pick, their own pick, that Boston had gotten in the Wally Szczerbiak trade. The Wolves took Jonny Flynn. With the 7th pick Golden State took Steph Curry.

That Minnesota pick was going to be gold because it was obvious Minny was blowing it up and the 2009 Minny pick was going to be a good lottery pick. Kahn was just an idiot and decided to draft 3 PGs in a draft with none of the 3 being Steph Curry, even though they had 2 shots at him.

That Minnesota pick that we traded back to them would have never conveyed, due to existing protections.  I believe it was due to eventually convert to two second rounders.

As for Kahn, yeah...  he spent three firsts on PGs, and yet missed the two best PGs in the draft (Curry and Holiday).  They drafted possibly the third best (Lawson) but dealt him away immediately.

TP...thanks for correcting that. Didn't remember the protections but remembered that the Wolves thought it important they got it back. I do remember, before the KG trade, thinking that Minny pick as very valuable though.

[gpap]

The more I think about it (and after seeing Kyrie's interview today on the Jump), I think a sign and trade of Rozier in a Davis trade is very likely.

If Kyrie re-signs here, Rozier is a goner. If you hear Kyrie's comments, it sounds like there's competition/a struggle for Rozier to get more minutes and Irving feels his minutes are getting sacrificed.

So I think Smart ends up staying in Boston and Rozier probably gets packaged with Tatum and quite possibly, Jaylen Brown.

I have this feeling that Jaylen Brown has been unhappy at times with his minutes and can't help but wonder if he doesn't like Kyrie after comments he made last month
https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/15/jaylen-brown-rebuts-kyrie-irvings-comments-in-unprovoked-response/

So, both him and Rozier will get the minutes they want and need in New Orleans.

As for the Celts, their opening night line-up for 2019-20 is Kyrie/Smart/Hayward/Horford/Davis

They also re-sign Morris for 6th man and go all in for the 'chip.

I still go back to Ainge's comments on Toucher and Rich that a wedding with Kyrie will commence on July 1st, which probably means he not only thinks he has Kyrie but AD in the bag as well.

AD not committing is a big risk, but Ainge must also feel confident that he can get Davis to stay long-term. We'll see how it works out.

[gpap]

Here's another question for the cap gurus:

Could AD agree to his super max deal with the Pelicans (5yr/230 mil approx) in a sign and trade to Boston?

[GreenEnvy]

Tatum and Yabu is about $10.9 million.

Presently, we would have 3 draft picks (13, 18, 23) that would bring an additional $8.6 million in salaries.

So we are at $19.5M, let’s add Williams’ $1.9 million and we are now $21.4 million.

Using the MLE next week on a two-year deal would seal it, but if not we still have ways to get there even if Rozier won’t agree to a S&T. Obviously it depends on the picks (especially whether Clippers convey), but we are close enough that we may not need to include Smart or Brown.

[boscel33]

So, I'm out on this.  There is no way I'm giving up the equivalent of eight first round picks for AD.  Sorry, ain't no player worth that.  I'd run this same team back out next year without AD, take my chances in the draft and signing Kyrie.  Maybe the Magic would do a Vuc for TR S&T.

[bdm860]

So, I'm out on this.  There is no way I'm giving up the equivalent of eight first round picks for AD.  Sorry, ain't no player worth that.  I'd run this same team back out next year without AD, take my chances in the draft and signing Kyrie.  Maybe the Magic would do a Vuc for TR S&T.

Don't overvalue first round picks, they're like lotto tickets: once in a while you hit the jackpot, sometimes you make a small profit or break even, most of the time you end up with nothing.

These are the C's first round picks no longer with the team (so hopefully no emotional attachment) and I'll just go with guys drafted with a pick the C's controlled as opposed to guys the C's may have traded the pick for since you may be opposed to trading first rounders:

Ante Zizic
RJ Hunter (back on the team, but not really).
James Young
Lucas Nogueira
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
MarShon Brooks
Avery Bradley
JR Giddens
Jeff Green
Randy Foye
Gerald Green
Al Jefferson
Delonte West
Tony Allen
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones

You wouldn't trade 8 of those guys?  I'd trade all of them.

Most of them, the C's never received any value from (either as trade chips or on the court): Hunter, Young, Melo, Brooks (JJJ), Zizic, Giddens.

Some were serviceable/productive players the team still lost for nothing:  Nogueira (Olynyk), Sullinger, and Tony Allen

A couple were productive players traded for other productive players: Bradley and Jones (Perk).

And the rest became assets that were traded for Garnett and Ray Allen: Jeff Green, Foye (Telfair), Gerald Green, Jefferson, West.

(And depending on what you think of Marcus Banks, via Troy Bell, either no value/throw in or used as a trade asset).

If you took the prime of all those guys and put them on one team, that's still a lottery team.

Don't be afraid to trade picks.

[MichiganAdam]

Don't forget all first round picks are not created equal.  Picks in the 15+ range are not the same as 7-14 are not the same as 1-6.  Top ten picks are worth a considerable amount.

[gpap]

I would think the Pelicans would want Smart over Rozier. Smart has become one of the improved players in the league with a reputation of playing great defense. Rozier has not ascended to the level Smart has.

Honestly, if I am the Pelicans, I am targeting Tatum, Smart, our potential 4 first rounders this season and whatever throw-in you want to include to make salaries match. That's probably why they're going to hire a new GM. To make sure they get the best return possible for their franchise player.

I think the Pelicans would view Smart and Holiday as a very good back-court, with Tatum on the wing and possibly Diallo and Randle as their front court.

The Pelicans would prefer Smart, but so would we. They don’t necessarily get everything they want.  Getting Tatum, Williams, as many as five #1s, and a look at Rozier for a year isn’t a bad offer.

Yeah, I get the feeling that if Ainge is hell bent on trading for Davis that Smart stays and Tatum, Brown and maybe a S&T of Rozier along with picks goes New Orleans way.

If not a Rozier sign and trade, then Ainge probably finds another way to fill the salary gap (maybe a 3rd team gets involved.)

You get the feeling after a game like tonight that if Ainge decides to assemble a veteran roster this summer revolving around a re-signed Kyrie, Hayward, Horford, a possibly re-signed Morris and trading for AD, that Tatum and Brown would be happier elsewhere.

Smart is still likely very much a huge part of the team going forward in this scenario and probably continues to start as the 2 guard.