UPDATE: Celtics "frontrunner" to sign Harris, reports Steve Kyler

[Evantime34]

Harris is 22 (will by 23 in two weeks), he has improved his shooting and always has been a bull going to the hoop who can post up smaller defenders. He is good in the pick and has the versatility to play the 3.

There is a good chance that his defensive issues were exacerbated by playing on a young team with a coach that wasn't great. He scored efficiently yet being on a team with almost no spacing.

The people who think the max is too much, would you rather be left with nothing because you didn't want to pay 1-2 MM a year that you don't think he's worth. How about when the next superstar becomes available and we are one asset short of making a deal (Harris could eventually be that asset). People are too hung up on the word max and the connotation it has in their minds. at $16 MM starting for 4 years he is a good value.

[MBunge]

It's vital to spend some money this offseason because the ridiculous cap increases on the way are going to vastly diminish the importance of cap room for years to come.  It's also important to grab someone know who might become the centerpiece of a deal that brings in an even bigger star.  Monroe and/or Harris are exactly the sort of players who, along with several firsts, could bring back someone like Cousins.

Mike

[walker834]

It's vital to spend some money this offseason because the ridiculous cap increases on the way are going to vastly diminish the importance of cap room for years to come.  It's also important to grab someone know who might become the centerpiece of a deal that brings in an even bigger star.  Monroe and/or Harris are exactly the sort of players who, along with several firsts, could bring back someone like Cousins.

Mike

I agree with you.   But spending it all on Harris is a mistake.   The celtics have options as far as trades coming up and can hold out a bit. 


We could sign him to then trade him.  I don't know how that would work though.  That's borderline dangerous.

[cltc5]

Just give him the max before we end up losing this guy.  We're not gettin any other big free agent here

[WeMadeIt17]

Gotta get him now.

[Tr1boy]

Kyler??

[sadleprechaun]

There is a good chance that his defensive issues were exacerbated by playing on a young team with a coach that wasn't great. He scored efficiently yet being on a team with almost no spacing.

You're aware that stats like DRPM are specifically designed to correct for factors like those, right?  Are you're aware that he's ranked #77 in DRPM among SFs?  And it would be one thing if his offense was strong enough to compensate, but he's also got a negative ORPM.

What am I missing here?

[walker834]

Kevin Love is visiting with the  Lakers this week so he is obviously open to moving.  just reading between the lines.  There is that possibility.

[TheFlex]

Kyler did not say the Celtics are the front runners that's a misrepresentation.

Steve Kyler ?@stevekylerNBA  · 7m7 minutes ago 

Steve Kyler retweeted The NBA Hub™
Not what I reported at all... 

Steve Kyler added,

The NBA Hub™ @TheNBAHub 
Boston Celtics are reportedly closing in on Tobias Harris. (via @stevekylerNBA)

Steve Kyler ?@stevekylerNBA  · 15m15 minutes ago 
There have been indication that Boston could be the front runner, but was told that Harris' camp has made no decisions yet

The title doesn't say they're "closing in on him," it says that the Celts are frontrunners, which means they're the favorites to sign him but that no decision has been made. That's exactly what Kyler said. If people don't know the meaning of frontrunner, that's not my fault.

What Kyler exactly said was that we "could be" frontrunners, which is what's called "weasel wording", because it's easy to weasel out of the implication - hey, we could be frontrunners or we could not.  Indications were mixed, dontchaknow.

True, but there's zero difference between saying that indications suggest that we're in the lead for Harris and an anonymous source claiming we're in the lead for Harris. Both will be broadcasted as us definitely being in the lead for Harris (as people definitively quote anonymous sources all the time), and if we don't get Harris, neither report could be held fully accountable.

Classic sports journalism.

[LarBrd33]

Have been told the #Magic will not match a max offer to Tobias Harris, so the market value has been set.  #Celtics

https://twitter.com/GwashburnGlobe/status/616294562982703104?s=09

Edit: h/t BudweiserCeltic:

Steve Kyler @stevekylerNBA
There have been indication that Boston could be the front runner, but was told that Harris' camp has made no decisions yet

Eh... despite what they are saying...

My excitement level if Tobias Harris was an unrestricted free agent and news came out that we signed him:  6/10

My excitement level if news came out that we were signing Harris... in spite of the fact Orlando will probably match:   1/10

My excitement level right now where news is coming out that we might sign Harris... in spite of the fact Orlando will probably match:  -0.5/10

[Moranis]

I don't like Harris at all and certainly not at that money. 

And I'm not sure where this notion came from that he is this super efficient scorer.  His 2PT% is barely 50% and his 3PT% is just 36.7%.  Those aren't terrible, but they aren't great either.  And isn't like he got to the line a ton at just 3.6 a game.  1.22 points per shot doesn't scream super efficiency to me (DeMarre Carroll for example was at 1.35 points per shot, that is a much better efficiency). 

He is young and will likely get better, but he isn't a move the needle type of player, so I don't really see the point in giving him a max contract, which is why Orlando is letting him go.

[walker834]

I would much rather spend the money on Kevin Love or Greg Monroe which we still have a  shot at.  Tobias Harris isn't winning us a championship.  Bad move.

[droopdog7]

Giving max money to non-max players is a mistake.  I know he is young, and has decent numbers, but what impact does he have on winning?

But you have to define what a max contract is.  Just estimating the numbers, it will be about $16 mil for Harris this season.  For an older veteran, it is about $22m.  With the salary cap going up to $89m next year, it will be about $20m for a young guy and $28m for an older guy.  In 2017, with the cap going up to $108m, it will be about about $25m for a young guy and $34m for an older guy, meanwhile Harris will be locked in at around $17m that year. 

If Harris improves at all, and he's only 22, that contract will be a bargain.  Considering he plays a position of need and his youth, this seems like an easy decision to me.

I understand.  But we can't ignore the pretty big assumption that is being made here; that Harris (because he is young) will necessarily get better and better.  That certainly does not always happen and you have to be concerned that his numbers are inflated now due to being on a bad team.

When you look at his comps on basketball reference, they aren't too encouraging to be sure.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harrito02.html

[TheFlex]

Have been told the #Magic will not match a max offer to Tobias Harris, so the market value has been set.  #Celtics

https://twitter.com/GwashburnGlobe/status/616294562982703104?s=09

Edit: h/t BudweiserCeltic:

Steve Kyler @stevekylerNBA
There have been indication that Boston could be the front runner, but was told that Harris' camp has made no decisions yet

Eh... despite what they are saying...

My excitement level if Tobias Harris was an unrestricted free agent and news came out that we signed him:  6/10

My excitement level if news came out that we were signing Harris... in spite of the fact Orlando will probably match:   1/10

My excitement level right now where news is coming out that we might sign Harris... in spite of the fact Orlando will probably match:  -0.5/10

I'm not understanding your reasons behind believing Orlando's probability of matching being high other than persistent and unrelenting pessimism.

[walker834]

the celtics have given Harris an offer sheet. Hopefully it's a lowball offer.