2023 Draft Tiers

[Who]

Why is Amari Bailey ranked so much lower (in mock drafts) than Nick Smith Jr, Keyonte George, and Kobe Bufkin??

I don't get it. Bailey looks the best of the bunch to me.

[CFAN38]

Why is Amari Bailey ranked so much lower (in mock drafts) than Nick Smith Jr, Keyonte George, and Kobe Bufkin??

I don't get it. Bailey looks the best of the bunch to me.

I'm coming around on this same idea, maybe not that he looks to be the best but that he shouldn't be valued 20+ picks behind those other combo guards. 

[Who]

So there are 4 athletic defensive forwards with dodgy offensive games = Julian Philips, Rayan Rupert, Jordan Walsh and Sidy Cissoko.

Those four guys all look pretty similar to me.

Philips has a strong FT% which can be a good predictor of future shooting improvement so he looks the best of the bunch. Rupert is more of an unknown as a foreigner. Hard to peg his standing in this group. Cissoko has some passing chops but worse shooting. Walsh more limited offensively.

All look like interesting candidates for a low 2nd round pick. A defensive stopper on the wing but needing growth on offense.

[Who]

I worry that I was too hard on Jett Howard's defensive game. I do love his offensive game. His offensive game is just about perfect for a role player. High quality shooting, good movement, good passing, good handles. Terrific complementary / role player level offense.

Can this guy be a passable defender? Not even good just good enough to stay on the floor?

[gouki88]

So there are 4 athletic defensive forwards with dodgy offensive games = Julian Philips, Rayan Rupert, Jordan Walsh and Sidy Cissoko.

Those four guys all look pretty similar to me.

Philips has a strong FT% which can be a good predictor of future shooting improvement so he looks the best of the bunch. Rupert is more of an unknown as a foreigner. Hard to peg his standing in this group. Cissoko has some passing chops but worse shooting. Walsh more limited offensively.

All look like interesting candidates for a low 2nd round pick. A defensive stopper on the wing but needing growth on offense.

I think following the success of Herb Jones, teams will be quite focused on these kinds of wing roles. Granted, Herb had a significantly better pre-NBA career than these other guys, but I think the Swiss army knife defender at the wing is going to be a prototype that is pursued aggressively in the 2nd.

Sidy Cissoko intrigues me the most with his playmaking and cutting, but he will probably not be available.

[gouki88]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tavSad_ypXY

Wemby is interesting to listen to.

[liam]

With the way the NBA officiating went this year, I would pick a better offensive player than a defensive one. Maybe they will allow defense more next year but it seems to be going in the direction of letting offensive players get away with everything. So I'd pick Julian Strawther.

[Who]

Michigan was +10 per 100 possessions when Kobe Bufkin was on the court and -11 per 100 possessions when he was off the court. This can be seen both as praise for Kobe Bufkin but also danging for Jett Howard.

Appearently, Michigan's defense improved so much when Jett Howard went to the bench that Michingan gained more on defense than they lost on offense from losing his offense / shooting threat. Howard was far and away Michigan's best 3 point threat and floor spacing. Despite this, his defense was so bad that they improved.

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/3-perception-changing-onoff-stats

[Ed Monix]

Brandon Miller has "solidified his standing" as the Hornets second overall pick.

Adrian Wojnarowski

[obnoxiousmime]

So there are 4 athletic defensive forwards with dodgy offensive games = Julian Philips, Rayan Rupert, Jordan Walsh and Sidy Cissoko.

Those four guys all look pretty similar to me.

Philips has a strong FT% which can be a good predictor of future shooting improvement so he looks the best of the bunch. Rupert is more of an unknown as a foreigner. Hard to peg his standing in this group. Cissoko has some passing chops but worse shooting. Walsh more limited offensively.

All look like interesting candidates for a low 2nd round pick. A defensive stopper on the wing but needing growth on offense.

I like Julian Phillips because he could shoot in high school but for whatever reason lost his form in college. He also apparently was in a bad system in Tennessee. As you mentioned, his strong FT shooting does portend a better future as far as long range shooting goes.

Field of '68 did a video on him and one of the hosts compared him to Corey Brewer as a floor. That's not bad for the 2nd round. Also, his parents were in the armed forces and if you watch his interviews he's one of those kids that refers to everyone as "sir." Sure it's a cliche but you have to imagine he probably has a strong work ethic and is more disciplined than your average kid due to his upbringing.

As far as his measurables go, he has an impressive height of 6'6.75'' w/o shoes. His standing reach is oddly short at 8'6'', which is more in line with someone a few inches shorter, but his wingspan is a solid 6'11.5''. His hands are on the smaller side though, at 8'5'' length and 9'0'' width (still wider than Jaylen though!).

He's not really aggressive with his shot so you could imagine him being the right unselfish mentality for a 3 and D role and then expanding his skills later. That's the problem with taking a GG Jackson type. He has more offensive potential but unless he becomes a star level guy, I'd rather have somebody fine with being a role player for now.

[gouki88]

Michigan was +10 per 100 possessions when Kobe Bufkin was on the court and -11 per 100 possessions when he was off the court. This can be seen both as praise for Kobe Bufkin but also danging for Jett Howard.

Appearently, Michigan's defense improved so much when Jett Howard went to the bench that Michingan gained more on defense than they lost on offense from losing his offense / shooting threat. Howard was far and away Michigan's best 3 point threat and floor spacing. Despite this, his defense was so bad that they improved.

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/3-perception-changing-onoff-stats

It's a [dang]ing set of numbers. I guess in Howard's advantage is he's not undersized. Easier to hide bigger wings if your team doesn't allow the opposition to hunt switches

[A Future of Stevens]

Jaime Jaquez screams Grant Williams clone to me. Undersized 4 who was amazing in college and needs to work on his 3. Great at the post game and short floaters.

It's always funny to me what Grant's profile was coming out vs what he ended up being in the nba (3 and d essentially.)

**I should note that I am going off the draft analysis of each. I saw one game of Tennessee, and one game a year ago of UCLA. 

[green_bballers13]

Jaime Jaquez screams Grant Williams clone to me. Undersized 4 who was amazing in college and needs to work on his 3. Great at the post game and short floaters.

It's always funny to me what Grant's profile was coming out vs what he ended up being in the nba (3 and d essentially.)

**I should note that I am going off the draft analysis of each. I saw one game of Tennessee, and one game a year ago of UCLA.

I also like Jaquez, but don't think that he has Grant's shooting ability. I also think he gets drafted before 35.

[Celtics2021]

Michigan was +10 per 100 possessions when Kobe Bufkin was on the court and -11 per 100 possessions when he was off the court. This can be seen both as praise for Kobe Bufkin but also danging for Jett Howard.

Appearently, Michigan's defense improved so much when Jett Howard went to the bench that Michingan gained more on defense than they lost on offense from losing his offense / shooting threat. Howard was far and away Michigan's best 3 point threat and floor spacing. Despite this, his defense was so bad that they improved.

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/3-perception-changing-onoff-stats

It's a [dang]ing set of numbers. I guess in Howard's advantage is he's not undersized. Easier to hide bigger wings if your team doesn't allow the opposition to hunt switches

Yes, Jett was AWFUL on defense.  Flat-out awful.  It was 5-on-4 on that end of the court -- he literally did not guard.  He also was very bad at moving the ball.  As a Michigan fan, it was like watching the Celtics fourth-quarter offense whenever Jett had the ball.  Everyone just stopped moving, he'd dribble for 5-10 seconds and either jack up an off-balance 3 or drive and throw up some weird floater.  Enough of them went in to make it okay offense, but Michigan's offense also got better when Howard rolled his ankle and the offense went through Bufkin for a few games.  I think Howard has a Cam Thomas profile in the NBA, to choose a recent draftee who people sometimes salivate over, and others want nothing to do with.  He can make some crazy shots and he has an NBA profile physically, but to be a valuable player he needs to learn how to play defense and how to play team basketball.  It's not impossible, and if you can get him such that he's not a liability on defense, he's got that special talent that you just can't teach, so I get him being a first-round pick.  But I also don't expect him to ever be in the rotation on a winning team, because I've seen enough Jett Howard's in my lifetime.

[A Future of Stevens]

Jaime Jaquez screams Grant Williams clone to me. Undersized 4 who was amazing in college and needs to work on his 3. Great at the post game and short floaters.

It's always funny to me what Grant's profile was coming out vs what he ended up being in the nba (3 and d essentially.)

**I should note that I am going off the draft analysis of each. I saw one game of Tennessee, and one game a year ago of UCLA.

I also like Jaquez, but don't think that he has Grant's shooting ability. I also think he gets drafted before 35.

I am not really that high on him. I think it would be a fine pick at 35, but I also don't think he would make it there.