CB Draft Western Finals: (1) Mavericks vs. (2) Blazers

[Who]

While I'm asking questions of the voters, here's another...

What is the gap between Rubio and Irving?

We can all agree that Irving has a higher ceiling, but where would they stand in May 2013, comparatively?

I thought Rubio and Kyrie were fairly equal last year.

I didn't think Kyrie deserved as much of the praise for play as he got. For his potential, sure. For the level he was playing at, I thought it was over-done. The scoring was extremely impressive but his non-contributions where largely negative (and often overlooked). Rubio was the polar opposite and (relatively speaking to Kyrie) flew under the radar because he didn't have sexy scoring numbers.

I think Rubio's injury is a real pain here. It takes away his development time this summer while Kyrie is free to work on his game and improve. I think that is the difference between the two of them in this playoff series.

I am undecided about how much higher to rate Kyrie here though. How much to expect Kyrie to improve over the summer.

Didn't Kyrie break his hand this summer?

Did he? I have no idea.

I thought Kyrie was working out with the select team for Team USA.

[Who]

He did. Kyrie Irving broke his right hand mid-July. In a workout with the Cavs in Las Vegas.

Expected back for training camp.

The team said Irving injured his hand slapping the padding on a wall at the team's practice site. The injury occurred after Irving committed a turnover toward the end of the morning practice. Irving was in Las Vegas practicing with Cleveland's summer league team.

''It was just a freak accident,'' said Irving, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft.

[nickagneta]

While I'm asking questions of the voters, here's another...

What is the gap between Rubio and Irving?

We can all agree that Irving has a higher ceiling, but where would they stand in May 2013, comparatively?

I thought Rubio and Kyrie were fairly equal last year.

I didn't think Kyrie deserved as much of the praise for play as he got. For his potential, sure. For the level he was playing at, I thought it was over-done. The scoring was extremely impressive but his non-contributions where largely negative (and often overlooked). Rubio was the polar opposite and (relatively speaking to Kyrie) flew under the radar because he didn't have sexy scoring numbers.

I think Rubio's injury is a real pain here. It takes away his development time this summer while Kyrie is free to work on his game and improve. I think that is the difference between the two of them in this playoff series.

I am undecided about how much higher to rate Kyrie here though. How much to expect Kyrie to improve over the summer.

Didn't Kyrie break his hand this summer?

Yes but he is supposed to be back in training camp and recent reports are that Rubio's return could linger into December.

Doesn't matter. They will both be fine by April/May 2013.

What does matter is that irving doesn't have to be a great PG for Dallas. He just has to continue to be a great shooter. LeBron is the playmaker for that team offensively. The opposite is true of Rubio. He has to be the playmaker and if his options are shut down or limited by a great defensive halfcourt team, he may be forced to shoot. He is a horrific shooter, worse than Rondo when Rondo entered the league.

That and Dwight's FT shooting will be critical in late game situation against a great defensive team like the Mavs.

[Roy H.]

This is for both teams and the answer will ultimately decide for me who wins this series. So please be thorough because I am sure it could help other GMs with their votes as well.

In 2008-09 Dwight and LeBron matched up in the Conference Finals. Dwight's team won 4-2. At this point LeBron was still adored and had relatively no critics in the media. After game 2 of this series LeBron was definitely seen as clutch thanks to his game winning 3. Instead there was no criticism for James at all. Rather it was all for Big Z, Varejao, Delonte, Mo "All-Star fill in" Williams, Mike Brown, and others. James was the MVP and really the only difference for him that season was that he was younger and not coming off a championship. If he had Wade and Bosh maybe he would have.

Howard was the Defensive Player of the Year and definitely healthy. He was playing with an All-Star at the time in Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis. Hedo Turkoglu was playing outstanding and looked at as very underrated.

So here is the question.

How do these two Superstars current teams differ from the teams back then? I see similarities for both supporting casts. Please both of you tell me about how you view both.

Brand/Varejao, Green, Thabo and Irving as players to Big Z, Varejao, West, and Williams.
Milsap, Johnson, Chandler, and Rubio as players to Lewis, Turk, Pietrus/Reddick, and Nelson

Thanks.

Okay, let me answer this.  First, Portland 2012 vs. Orlando 2009:

* 2012 Dwight Howard isn't the same player as 2009 Dwight Howard.  First, 2009 Dwight Howard wasn't coming off back surgery.  Equally as important, Dwight Howard in 2009 wasn't the prima donna he is today.  2009 Howard was a hungry, athletic freak who would buy into his coach's system.  2012 Howard is, as KG would say, a "clown" who should be painting his face.  I would go to war with 2009 Howard.  2012 D12 isn't a guy I'd want in my fox hole, as he'd be asking his teammates to bail him out.

* In terms of supporting cast, give me Orlando.  That team ranked first in the entire NBA in defensive rating.  A lot of that is because they had tall, athletic guys up front who created mismatches.  Both Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkuglu are 6'10", but are (or were) much more mobile than they're given credit for.  Lewis is a better shooter and offensive player than Milsap, and Turkuglu is better at just about everything than Chandler, especially ball-handling.  Joe Johnson is better than any guard on 2009 Orlando, but the Magic were deeper.  Jameer Nelson, Rafer Alston (riding a huge hot streak), Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick...  Portland doesn't have that depth.  Portland also doesn't have Gortat coming off the bench.

Now, 2009 Cleveland vs. 2012 Dallas:

* 2012 Lebron James is much better than 2009 Lebron James.  He's got a killer instinct that 2009 Lebron perhaps didn't.  He doesn't fold or get discouraged like he did.

* Similarly, Mike Brown was too stupid to play Lebron at PF, despite the fact that Lebron on offense is like a faster, more athletic version of Karl Malone with 3PT range.

* Nobody on the Cavs had the skills of Kyrie Irving.  Keep in mind, Irving was the most clutch player in the NBA last season.  Mo Williams was a shooter who could handle the ball some.  Kyrie Irving is a complete offensive player who can do this:





* Anderson Varejao and Lebron James is a much better defensive front court than Big Z and AV.  Similarly, Elton Brand is an elite defensive big man who the 2009 Cavs couldn't match.  Mike Brown doubled D12; there's no need to do that here, as Brand has proven he can muscle and limit Howard.

* The depth on the Mavs is better.  Let's say that Lebron = Lebron (although 2012 is better), AV = AV, Brand = Ilgauskas (again, Brand is much better, but let's assume this for argument's sake), and Irving = Williams (a laughable comparison, but let's go with it).

That leaves Jeff Green, Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Dunleavy, Linas Kleiza, Aaron Brooks, Robin Lopez, Joel Anthony, and Keyon Dooling versus...  who?  Delonte West is a legit player; let's say he's about equal to Gordon (again, for argument's sake).  The Cavs' next leading playoff scorer was Joe Smith, at 5.5 points per game.  Wally Z averaged 3.6 points in the playoffs.  Boobie Gibson averaged 3.6.  Jeff Green is going to out-produce those three guys on his own.

It's no comparison.  The 2012 Blazers are equal to, or perhaps a downgrade from, the "real" Magic.  The 2012 Mavs are a significant upgrade from those 2009 Cavs.

[Roy H.]

I didn't think Kyrie deserved as much of the praise for play as he got. For his potential, sure. For the level he was playing at, I thought it was over-done. The scoring was extremely impressive but his non-contributions where largely negative (and often overlooked).

Irving's defensive numbers weren't great.  Let's put that in context, though:

* Once AV went down, he was on a team with zero above-average defenders.  I mean, Cleveland's leaders in minutes were Antwan Jamison (perhaps the worst defensive big man in the NBA at this stage) and Alonzo Gee.  Irving had nobody even solid defensively to play beside him, or to protect the paint.  Cleveland had a terrible, terrible roster outside of Irving and Varejao.

* Irving had to carry the entire team on offense.  He had to conserve energy somewhere, especially as a 19 year old learning the NBA game.  Defense suffered a bit out of necessity.

In terms of other contributions outside of scoring and defense, what are we talking about?  Passing?  Irving averaged more assists per game in his rookie season than Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook, Steve Nash, and Rajon Rondo.  He averaged more assists per minute than Derrick Rose.  Plus, he's younger than all those guys.

Lastly, Irving's scoring + efficiency isn't just a positive.  It's downright amazing; no rookie guard has scored that many points with that high of an efficiency since Michael Jordan.

Kyrie Irving is already an elite PG in this league.  Next year, he's going to be much better, which will be scary.

[jgod213]

* 2012 Dwight Howard isn't the same player as 2009 Dwight Howard.  First, 2009 Dwight Howard wasn't coming off back surgery.  Equally as important, Dwight Howard in 2009 wasn't the prima donna he is today.  2009 Howard was a hungry, athletic freak who would buy into his coach's system.  2012 Howard is, as KG would say, a "clown" who should be painting his face.  I would go to war with 2009 Howard.  2012 D12 isn't a guy I'd want in my fox hole, as he'd be asking his teammates to bail him out.

Why is Dwight Howard being a prima donna equally as important as his health? On what planet?  And hasn't he shown he's hungry? He's battling for the right to go to the NBA Finals - how'd he get this far? Just coasting I guess?  Look out for when Dwight takes this matchup seriously then!  I'm pretty sure if you asked LeBron if he'd like 2012 Dwight in his foxhole, he wouldn't hesitate to get down on bended knee and plead.

* In terms of supporting cast, give me Orlando.  That team ranked first in the entire NBA in defensive rating.  A lot of that is because they had tall, athletic guys up front who created mismatches

Give you Orlando? Why did they rank first in defensive rating? Was it because Lewis/Hedo/Nelson were lights-out defenders or was it because they had the best defensive player in basketball behind them.  This Blazer talent mix is FAR AND AWAY better than what Dwight has ever played with.

You yourself said Dwight took something along the lines of "an average team" all the way to the finals that year.  This is far more than an average team.

but the Magic were deeper - Jameer Nelson, Rafer Alston (riding a huge hot streak), Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick

I'll take Ricky Rubio, Joe Johnson, Beno Udrih, Marco Belinelli, and Matt Barnes over that group.  10 times out of 10.  It's not even close.

This is extremely close but I think the defensive pressure of an Irving/Thabo/Kleiza/leBron/Varejao lineup could be awesome and shut down Portland quite easy.

Can we please just call a spade a spade here when it comes to Irving's defense.  HE IS A SIEVE.  Go ahead and overlook his defense because he was so good shooting the ball.  But Ricky Rubio won't.  Iriving is going to get KILLED in the Pick and Roll game, and Elton Brand is going to suffer the brunt of that.

Irving's terrible defense is going to allow Rubio to set up this offense to perfection and get both Johnson involved (Thabo had a downright bad year defensively last year) and get Dwight 25 a night.

[nickagneta]

Also, on a team with Lebron, Irving doesn't have to be the high usage PG that he was last year. He doesn't have to be an elite passer or playmaker. Lebron will be doing that. Irving is the PERFECT PG for LeBron because he just has to be efficient in his scoring. His shooting ability at such a young age is scary for what his ceiling is going to be.

[indeedproceed]

Did Rubio and Irving play last season?

[Roy H.]

Iriving is going to get KILLED in the Pick and Roll game, and Elton Brand is going to suffer the brunt of that.

Elton Brand is the 9th best player in the entire NBA at defending the pick-and-roll.  He's limited Howard severely recently.  I'm not particularly worried, despite your over the top hyperbole.  Plus, Dallas has Lebron and Thabo to help out, as well.

Ricky Rubio shot 35.7% from the field last year.  To suggest that he's even in Kyrie Irving's class is borderline laughable.  You forget, Rubio is a pretty dang bad defender himself, ranking in the bottom 40% of NBA players.  However, he doesn't bring nearly the offense that Irving does.

I tip my cap to your attempts to argue here.  You've done well to take a team with two sub-40% shooters in the starting lineup to the Conference Finals.  However, this is the end of the road.

[Roy H.]

Did Rubio and Irving play last season?

Once, seven games into their careers.  Neither guy looked all that impressive.

[nickagneta]

The other thing regarding the young PGs in this series. Irving had a horrible team alongside him, never said anything bad, went out every game and played like a warrior.

Rubio had some talent around him, although, not a lot. But he had some. And when his numbers started dipping and his play started getting poor, what does his team do? They complain to the league that the rest of the league is being to physical with Rubio. Well guess what? They did everyone a favor. They told the rest of the league how to play Rubio and how to effect his game.

So all the Mavs need to do is body up Rubio and get physical with him and in the physical play of the NBA playoffs, its not going to get called.

Major advantage Mavs.

[Kane3387]

This is for both teams and the answer will ultimately decide for me who wins this series. So please be thorough because I am sure it could help other GMs with their votes as well.

In 2008-09 Dwight and LeBron matched up in the Conference Finals. Dwight's team won 4-2. At this point LeBron was still adored and had relatively no critics in the media. After game 2 of this series LeBron was definitely seen as clutch thanks to his game winning 3. Instead there was no criticism for James at all. Rather it was all for Big Z, Varejao, Delonte, Mo "All-Star fill in" Williams, Mike Brown, and others. James was the MVP and really the only difference for him that season was that he was younger and not coming off a championship. If he had Wade and Bosh maybe he would have.

Howard was the Defensive Player of the Year and definitely healthy. He was playing with an All-Star at the time in Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis. Hedo Turkoglu was playing outstanding and looked at as very underrated.

So here is the question.

How do these two Superstars current teams differ from the teams back then? I see similarities for both supporting casts. Please both of you tell me about how you view both.

Brand/Varejao, Green, Thabo and Irving as players to Big Z, Varejao, West, and Williams.
Milsap, Johnson, Chandler, and Rubio as players to Lewis, Turk, Pietrus/Reddick, and Nelson

Thanks.

Okay, let me answer this.  First, Portland 2012 vs. Orlando 2009:

* 2012 Dwight Howard isn't the same player as 2009 Dwight Howard.  First, 2009 Dwight Howard wasn't coming off back surgery.  Equally as important, Dwight Howard in 2009 wasn't the prima donna he is today.  2009 Howard was a hungry, athletic freak who would buy into his coach's system.  2012 Howard is, as KG would say, a "clown" who should be painting his face.  I would go to war with 2009 Howard.  2012 D12 isn't a guy I'd want in my fox hole, as he'd be asking his teammates to bail him out.

* In terms of supporting cast, give me Orlando.  That team ranked first in the entire NBA in defensive rating.  A lot of that is because they had tall, athletic guys up front who created mismatches.  Both Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkuglu are 6'10", but are (or were) much more mobile than they're given credit for.  Lewis is a better shooter and offensive player than Milsap, and Turkuglu is better at just about everything than Chandler, especially ball-handling.  Joe Johnson is better than any guard on 2009 Orlando, but the Magic were deeper.  Jameer Nelson, Rafer Alston (riding a huge hot streak), Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick...  Portland doesn't have that depth.  Portland also doesn't have Gortat coming off the bench.

Now, 2009 Cleveland vs. 2012 Dallas:

* 2012 Lebron James is much better than 2009 Lebron James.  He's got a killer instinct that 2009 Lebron perhaps didn't.  He doesn't fold or get discouraged like he did.

* Similarly, Mike Brown was too stupid to play Lebron at PF, despite the fact that Lebron on offense is like a faster, more athletic version of Karl Malone with 3PT range.

* Nobody on the Cavs had the skills of Kyrie Irving.  Keep in mind, Irving was the most clutch player in the NBA last season.  Mo Williams was a shooter who could handle the ball some.  Kyrie Irving is a complete offensive player who can do this:





* Anderson Varejao and Lebron James is a much better defensive front court than Big Z and AV.  Similarly, Elton Brand is an elite defensive big man who the 2009 Cavs couldn't match.  Mike Brown doubled D12; there's no need to do that here, as Brand has proven he can muscle and limit Howard.

* The depth on the Mavs is better.  Let's say that Lebron = Lebron (although 2012 is better), AV = AV, Brand = Ilgauskas (again, Brand is much better, but let's assume this for argument's sake), and Irving = Williams (a laughable comparison, but let's go with it).

That leaves Jeff Green, Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Dunleavy, Linas Kleiza, Aaron Brooks, Robin Lopez, Joel Anthony, and Keyon Dooling versus...  who?  Delonte West is a legit player; let's say he's about equal to Gordon (again, for argument's sake).  The Cavs' next leading playoff scorer was Joe Smith, at 5.5 points per game.  Wally Z averaged 3.6 points in the playoffs.  Boobie Gibson averaged 3.6.  Jeff Green is going to out-produce those three guys on his own.

It's no comparison.  The 2012 Blazers are equal to, or perhaps a downgrade from, the "real" Magic.  The 2012 Mavs are a significant upgrade from those 2009 Cavs.

First off.

Thank you. This is the kind of in-depth and detailed analysis I had hope to consistently see in the CB Draft League. I know it takes time but it was well worth the read and it most likely earned you a vote unless Portland comes with some really persuasive points and responses. So I think that makes it worth your time to write.

Do I absolutely agree with everything in here? No, but 90% of it I do. I try to be as objective as possible and let the GMs make a case for their team before I finally decide. That was done here.

The Mike Brown double teams in 2009 and the Gortat comment really stuck out to me. Gortat was a great backup for Dwight (ha he would be for anyone) and he gave the energy players of Cleveland a ton of issues.

The Brown double teams of Howard is what did Cleveland in that series. Dwight still played like a beast BUT he was also able to get the shooters involved. Brown should have just let Dwight get his and keep everyone else in check like Atlanta did in 2011.

Some really good points here Roy. TP

[indeedproceed]

The Blazers are a giant step up from the real magic, and the playoff series magic from 2009.

How did Bron handle Millsap?

Thabo on Jo Jo?

[Kane3387]

Quote
* 2012 Dwight Howard isn't the same player as 2009 Dwight Howard.  First, 2009 Dwight Howard wasn't coming off back surgery.  Equally as important, Dwight Howard in 2009 wasn't the prima donna he is today.  2009 Howard was a hungry, athletic freak who would buy into his coach's system.  2012 Howard is, as KG would say, a "clown" who should be painting his face.  I would go to war with 2009 Howard.  2012 D12 isn't a guy I'd want in my fox hole, as he'd be asking his teammates to bail him out.

Why is Dwight Howard being a prima donna equally as important as his health? On what planet?  And hasn't he shown he's hungry? He's battling for the right to go to the NBA Finals - how'd he get this far? Just coasting I guess?  Look out for when Dwight takes this matchup seriously then!  I'm pretty sure if you asked LeBron if he'd like 2012 Dwight in his foxhole, he wouldn't hesitate to get down on bended knee and plead.

I didn't agree with the prima Donna comment. All Super Stars are. Some are just more public with it. I didn't think that was all that relevant. Dwight definitely made me no longer a fan but when he is 100% he is Great regardless. His teammates seem to like him for the most part. I also think any team in the NBA would take Dwight in their foxhole.

Quote
* In terms of supporting cast, give me Orlando.  That team ranked first in the entire NBA in defensive rating.  A lot of that is because they had tall, athletic guys up front who created mismatches

Give you Orlando? Why did they rank first in defensive rating? Was it because Lewis/Hedo/Nelson were lights-out defenders or was it because they had the best defensive player in basketball behind them.  This Blazer talent mix is FAR AND AWAY better than what Dwight has ever played with.

You yourself said Dwight took something along the lines of "an average team" all the way to the finals that year.  This is far more than an average team.

Agree with this too. Dwight erased almost all the shortcomings of that Orlando team. Lewis, Nelson, a rookie version of Lee, and Turk are not great individual defenders.

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but the Magic were deeper - Jameer Nelson, Rafer Alston (riding a huge hot streak), Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick

I'll take Ricky Rubio, Joe Johnson, Beno Udrih, Marco Belinelli, and Matt Barnes over that group.  10 times out of 10.  It's not even close.

I think I might agree with this. But why should I? I think you could easily back this up but you can't just say something like it's fact.

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This is extremely close but I think the defensive pressure of an Irving/Thabo/Kleiza/leBron/Varejao lineup could be awesome and shut down Portland quite easy.

Can we please just call a spade a spade here when it comes to Irving's defense.  HE IS A SIEVE.  Go ahead and overlook his defense because he was so good shooting the ball.  But Ricky Rubio won't.  Iriving is going to get KILLED in the Pick and Roll game, and Elton Brand is going to suffer the brunt of that.

Irving's terrible defense is going to allow Rubio to set up this offense to perfection and get both Johnson involved (Thabo had a downright bad year defensively last year) and get Dwight 25 a night.

Irving is not a great defender and likely isn't a good one either.

Why will he get killed in the pick and roll though? Who is Rubio doing pick and rolls with. Are they 1-2 and 1-5 pick and rolls. A 1-4 pick and roll might not work if James is playing PF. Would you use double screen high pick and rolls? with both dwight and Joe? Dwight rolls and Joe pops. I would like that.

[Kane3387]

The Blazers are a giant step up from the real magic, and the playoff series magic from 2009.

How did Bron handle Millsap?

Thabo on Jo Jo?

The Blazers are a giant step up from the real magic, and the playoff series magic from 2009.

Interesting. Why?

Too often on here people just say something and act as if because it is their opinion it makes it right.

Roy came with a lot of analysis for why he felt like Portland < Orlando.

I am not saying I disagree, but I would like to see some information that defends a statement such as this one.