I have been pro-future for a while now. I was glad about the Pierce and KG move, though I loved them both in their time here. I have also wanted to maximize our chances at a good lottery pick, so long as we are reasonable about it and don't give away assets. I agree that this lottery contains some impressive talent.
On the other hand, there is a great irony in the idea that being in the lottery will be the best move to get us a ring due to the number of potential superstars. The irony is that if there are 6 potential superstars, that means that 6 teams will end up with potential superstars, and none of those teams are top teams with top players (like Lebron or Durant).
All 6 team fanbases will expect the pick to lead them to a title, but all that is guaranteed to those teams is that the player will be under contract for 4 years. Nothing is guaranteed after that. Also, Houston, OKC, LAC, and wherever Lebron ends up will still be in the league. They will still have their top players. Only 1 championship can happen per year, so most of the guys in the top 5 or 6 picks this year will most likely not bring a ring to the team that drafts them due to the amount of competition in the league and due to the chances that they change teams. It is also likely that when they change teams, the drafting team does not get sufficient value to win a ring in the near future.
So I've mentioned 4 top teams and 6 top lottery picks - this is already a large percentage of teams in the league. Yes, one or more of the guys in this years lottery may lead a team to a ring, but we should be aware that being in the lottery -- even getting a top 6 or 5 pick -- leaves us still very far from a title.
My only point in mentioning this is to emphasize why we can't have a fire sale for a top pick. We can't ship off Rondo to lose on purpose. Ship off Rondo in a second if it guarantees a ring -- but it isn't clear to me that even having the worst record in the league would give us particularly good odds of winning it all. This is why the proper approach is to maximize assets with an eye on expected outcomes. Each deal should bring value in itself, whether that be talent, picks, or shedding a contract we don't want. This means you trade Rondo to a team that wants to win now if they offer good future value, but not merely to make the Celtics worse.
For those who are fixated on the value of a top 5 pick this season, look at Melo. He is a perennial all star, but isn't leading anyone anywhere. His team is no where near a contender at the moment, and his teams never really have been contenders (never mind the fact that he isn't on the team that drafted him). Melo was a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts of all time, but it would have been foolish to dump assets for little return in order to acquire him.
Topic: The irony of valuing this year's lottery (Read 658 times)