so what if we overpay Rondo?

[Jeff]

say we give Rondo $11M a year for the next 5 years (starting next year) and he never gets any better than he is now (gambles on D, can't hit jumpers reliably, but still distributes the ball well)

considering the way Ainge has contracts cascading off the books over the next 3 years, in a worst case scenario, he still has the flexibility to work with that doesn't he?

I'm all for fiscal sanity and flexibility, but what I don't get is how people will set a limit on a guy and say "we can't pay him more than 9M"

I understand that to you and me $2M is a lot of money, but does it really hurt us to overpay him by $2M or even $3M a year?  At worst we would have to reduce our roster size to 12 or 13 and pass on signing the future equivalent to Tony Allen

just food for thought

[Roy Hobbs]

Well, it depends.  Let's say the "true" value of Rondo as he stands right now is $6 million per season.  (Maybe it's more, maybe it's less, but I think above-MLE money for a limited offensive player is fair.)  His five year deal would presumably be structured roughly as follows:

'10: $9m
'11: $10m
'12: $11m
'13: $12m
'14: $13m

So, in 2010, he's only overpaid $3 million, but in 2014, he's overpaid by $7 million.

What does $7 million get you?  Well, it depends on what our other contracts are.  $7 million could be $7 million in additional luxury tax, meaning the total payout is $14 million.  It could be $7 million that is relatively irrelevant, because we're above the cap but below the luxury tax.  It could be $7 million that keeps us from signing a superstar, because we're under the cap, but not by enough.

Any time you overpay, there will be consequences.  The question is, is the potential gain (Rondo achieving all-star potential) outweighed by the risk (Rondo never developing, and paying him something like an extra $23 million over 5 years, and having teams continue to play off him in the playoffs.)

[GroverTheClover]

I'm inclined to agree with you, Jeff. He's *already* Top 6 or 7 at his position and still developing. There's little risk in signing him to a contract in the $10-12 million range.

[wdleehi]

I bet that many teams felt that way.


The Bullets/Wiz felt that way when they resigned Juwan Howard all those years ago.


Dallas when they signeed Raef.

Portland when they signed Randolph.



Overpay Rondo and they create a harder time rebuilding once the three stars are gone. 


Let the market dictate what he gets payed.  And the market is not going to make that decision for at least another year.

[Jeff]

stupid logical arguments getting in the way of my mancrush

[Chris]

It all depends on what you are paying him.  

If its $11 million a year over the next 5 years, then I don't think it will be terrible, since I don't think that is vastly overpaying him (although its not a good deal for the C's either).  

The problem comes when he starts looking for a deal STARTING at $11 million that has 10% raises each year.  So its $11m in 2010-2011, $12.1m in 2011-2012, and suddenly it is 2015 and he is making $16 million a year.  And if he does not dramatically improve his jumper, and takes a step back when he is not surrounded by such good players, instead of being overpaid by 2-3 million, he may be overpaid by 7 or 8 million.  And I think we can all agree that $7-8 million is enough money to significantly improve your team.

But for me, the real question with Rondo is whether he is good enough to be one of the centerpieces of the team going into the new era of Celtics basketball.  If he is, then he is worth $11 million dollars.  If he isn't, then you are better off using that salary slot for someone else.

I have been high on him since before the C's drafted him, but I have been having more and more second thoughts after seeing him stiffled by defenses two straight years in the playoffs, that used his inability to shoot as an opportunity to shut down the other players on the floor like Pierce, Allen, and House.  I know he is young, and can hopefully fix that...however, I am very hessitant to give him that kind of money until he DOES fix it, otherwise, it could be a fatal flaw that could be bringing the entire team and organization down for years to come.

[CelticsWhat35]

Rondo is worth much more than $6 million/yr.  He's not deserving of a max contract yet, and maybe never will be, but what he has shown this early in his young career would lead me to believe that he's going to be a very good/great player for years to come, and at a position that is hard to fill.  I don't see any reason why the Celtics need to worry about a contract extension now, unless Rondo's agent is being reasonable with his demands and the Celtics think they can get good value out of a LT deal.  But barring a bad injury or Rondo just totally regressing, which seems very unlikely for a player still on his rookie contract, I see no reason why Rondo's stock won't keep rising.

Everyone was quick to wanna lock Rondo up long term after we won the title, and even after the Chicago series.  But so many people have soured on him after losing to Orlando.  Everyone was quick to give Pierce and Ray a pass for their subpar performance in the playoffs and chalk it up to injury/fatigue, but now people want to get rid of Rondo now just because they think he'll command a lot of money in free agency and isn't worth it??  That just doesn't make sense to me.

[Roy Hobbs]

Rondo is worth much more than $6 million/yr.

Keep in mind that Jeff's scenario was "what is he worth if he never improves at all".  In terms of true value, I don't think an all-pass, no-shoot point guard is worth too much more than a tick above the MLE.  

[wdleehi]

Rondo is worth much more than $6 million/yr.  He's not deserving of a max contract yet, and maybe never will be, but what he has shown this early in his young career would lead me to believe that he's going to be a very good/great player for years to come, and at a position that is hard to fill.  I don't see any reason why the Celtics need to worry about a contract extension now, unless Rondo's agent is being reasonable with his demands and the Celtics think they can get good value out of a LT deal.  But barring a bad injury or Rondo just totally regressing, which seems very unlikely for a player still on his rookie contract, I see no reason why Rondo's stock won't keep rising.

Everyone was quick to wanna lock Rondo up long term after we won the title, and even after the Chicago series.  But so many people have soured on him after losing to Orlando.  Everyone was quick to give Pierce and Ray a pass for their subpar performance in the playoffs and chalk it up to injury/fatigue, but now people want to get rid of Rondo now just because they think he'll command a lot of money in free agency and isn't worth it??  That just doesn't make sense to me.

I didn't sour on him.  I just think they can get another season out of him and get a better idea what his true value around the league is.  


If he continues to improve and play like he did against Chicago, then he will not be getting overpayed.  But if he has reached his ceiling, then giving him what he wants now is overpaying.



The Celtics control him right now.  No need to rush.

[CelticsWhat35]

Rondo is worth much more than $6 million/yr.  He's not deserving of a max contract yet, and maybe never will be, but what he has shown this early in his young career would lead me to believe that he's going to be a very good/great player for years to come, and at a position that is hard to fill.  I don't see any reason why the Celtics need to worry about a contract extension now, unless Rondo's agent is being reasonable with his demands and the Celtics think they can get good value out of a LT deal.  But barring a bad injury or Rondo just totally regressing, which seems very unlikely for a player still on his rookie contract, I see no reason why Rondo's stock won't keep rising.

Everyone was quick to wanna lock Rondo up long term after we won the title, and even after the Chicago series.  But so many people have soured on him after losing to Orlando.  Everyone was quick to give Pierce and Ray a pass for their subpar performance in the playoffs and chalk it up to injury/fatigue, but now people want to get rid of Rondo now just because they think he'll command a lot of money in free agency and isn't worth it??  That just doesn't make sense to me.

I didn't sour on him.  I just think they can get another season out of him and get a better idea what his true value around the league is.  


If he continues to improve and play like he did against Chicago, then he will not be getting overpayed.  But if he has reached his ceiling, then giving him what he wants now is overpaying.



The Celtics control him right now.  No need to rush.

Oh, I absolutely agree with that.  No need to sign him to an extension now unless it's to favorable terms for the Celtics, which would be something below market value for him, but something to give him long term security.  But other than that, the team might as well wait, because they can match anything another team throws at him next summer.

[EJPLAYA]

Rondo is worth much more than $6 million/yr.  He's not deserving of a max contract yet, and maybe never will be, but what he has shown this early in his young career would lead me to believe that he's going to be a very good/great player for years to come, and at a position that is hard to fill.  I don't see any reason why the Celtics need to worry about a contract extension now, unless Rondo's agent is being reasonable with his demands and the Celtics think they can get good value out of a LT deal.  But barring a bad injury or Rondo just totally regressing, which seems very unlikely for a player still on his rookie contract, I see no reason why Rondo's stock won't keep rising.

Everyone was quick to wanna lock Rondo up long term after we won the title, and even after the Chicago series.  But so many people have soured on him after losing to Orlando.  Everyone was quick to give Pierce and Ray a pass for their subpar performance in the playoffs and chalk it up to injury/fatigue, but now people want to get rid of Rondo now just because they think he'll command a lot of money in free agency and isn't worth it??  That just doesn't make sense to me.

I didn't sour on him.  I just think they can get another season out of him and get a better idea what his true value around the league is.  


If he continues to improve and play like he did against Chicago, then he will not be getting overpayed.  But if he has reached his ceiling, then giving him what he wants now is overpaying.



The Celtics control him right now.  No need to rush.

TP. Perfectly put. Locking him up now does nothing for us. If the thought is that he will be "unhappy" without a new contract, then that is just another warning sign to add to the ones we have seen already. I'd start thinking trade at that point. If he continues to improve and loses some of his "rookie" tendencies, then fine. Pay the man!

[KG_ended_Bias]

5yr 42.5 mil for Rondo & I tell him take it or leave it! If he denies it I put him on the block instantly while calling around to other teams secretly. Wouldn't want him to start tanking, which in that situation porbably wouldnt be a bad thing for the Celts because his value would drop. Rondo just doesn't have the jumpshot or mechanics to warrant Top Tier money. I may have just come down to 5yr. 40mil!

[BballTim]

  There's also the slight (or not-so-slight) chance that he continues to improve his game like most younger players do. He could easily cost you more money next year than he would now which will decrease your flexibility over the life of his contract. There's also the chance that some team overpays for him (it only takes one team) and you're forced to either match or let him walk. Or, he could try and force you to either not match or take a sign and trade by siging an offer sheet and badmouthing the team and the owner/gm/coaches. None of these things are unprecedented.

  I can see the logic in waiting, but I don't think he's overvalued right now. His production in the latter stages probably somewhat canceled out great performances earlier in the playoffs, and it's not like Danny was going to pay him based on just a few playoff games and disregard his play over the entire season. But I think that the odds are pretty high that his pricetag will go up if they wait.

  Based on watching his career thus far as well as the playoffs I think it's extremely likely that he'll improve as a player next year compared to this year. It's likely his role on the team will increase as it did last year. His reputation nationally has (somewhat) gone from "the Celts won the title in spite of Rondo's shooting" to "he almost averaged a triple-double in the playoffs", so he'll a) be included in almost all "best young pg" discussions", b) show up more in nbatv and espn highlights, and c) get more consideration for the all-star game (none of which make him a better player but probably help his bargaining position).

[winsomme]

Well, it depends.  Let's say the "true" value of Rondo as he stands right now is $6 million per season.  (Maybe it's more, maybe it's less, but I think above-MLE money for a limited offensive player is fair.)  His five year deal would presumably be structured roughly as follows:

this slices right to the heart of this debate. No way IMO is Rondo only worth MLE money.

Like i was saying on the home page post, I think the things Rondo does for this team are undervalued based on his stat lines.....

an elite pure point has a deceptively posititive effect on a team. I think Rondo's PG play makes us a much more efficient and high powered team on offense than we would be otherwise.

[Who]

Everybody seems to have a different figure for what is overpaying Rondo.

I'm comfortable with the C's paying Rondo a salary starting at $12mil a year, or anything below that. Above $12mil, and I'd rather wait until next summer.