Keep Al, Sign Kemba idea that works within cap rules

[Vermont Green]

Setting aside Horford for a moment, if we are able to sign and trade Kyrie, we would get a large trade exception.  It would not be a stretch for Brooklyn to renounce their way to enough space to do this.  We would have to send out a half decent pick or something but it would be well worth it if we can then sign and trade for Walker using the trade exception.

In this way, we can get Kemba without having to renounce Rozier, Horford, and all the other FAs.  That keeps open the options to sign these players or sign and trade them.  That doesn't mean we bring back Horford or Rozier, but we leave open the option.  Even if we are able to S&T either Horford or Rozier, it is very valuable in that we get a player back or a trade exception, thus preserving the above cap money. 

It would be ironic if we were able to trade Kyrie and get an exception.  Then use that exception to get Walker, then get part of that exception back by trading Rozier to Charlotte.  I think it would be unlikely that we sign Horford but it would be awesome to somehow get a trade exception for Horford too.  Then we could take Capela without trading Smart.

[Fafnir]

We probably shouldn’t get our hopes up about Al:

Jason Anderson @JandersonSacBee
2 minutes ago
A well-placed league source tells The Sacramento Bee the Kings are expected to make a massive offer to Al Horford when free agency begins at 3 p.m. PDT, and there is mutual interest on both sides. I'm told Horford's camp has not scheduled meetings with any teams today.

yeah if there were reports that he was shopping for offers but wasn't locked it it'd be one thing. Instead we have had a first, he's getting 100+ million deal from a team that the C's declined to match.

He's got a good agent I don't think he's wrong about the offer that is out there. Too many teams with cap space for it to all dry up.

[Roy H.]

Setting aside Horford for a moment, if we are able to sign and trade Kyrie, we would get a large trade exception.  It would not be a stretch for Brooklyn to renounce their way to enough space to do this.  We would have to send out a half decent pick or something but it would be well worth it if we can then sign and trade for Walker using the trade exception.

In this way, we can get Kemba without having to renounce Rozier, Horford, and all the other FAs.  That keeps open the options to sign these players or sign and trade them.  That doesn't mean we bring back Horford or Rozier, but we leave open the option.  Even if we are able to S&T either Horford or Rozier, it is very valuable in that we get a player back or a trade exception, thus preserving the above cap money. 

It would be ironic if we were able to trade Kyrie and get an exception.  Then use that exception to get Walker, then get part of that exception back by trading Rozier to Charlotte.  I think it would be unlikely that we sign Horford but it would be awesome to somehow get a trade exception for Horford too.  Then we could take Capela without trading Smart.

We can’t fit Kemba into a Kyrie trade exception.

It would have to be a 3- or 4-way deal, where Kyrie and Rozier go out, and Kemba comes in.

[Vermont Green]

... if we can then sign and trade for Walker using the trade exception.

We can’t fit Kemba into a Kyrie trade exception.

It would have to be a 3- or 4-way deal, where Kyrie and Rozier go out, and Kemba comes in.

You are deeper into the Cap nuances than I can address but it seems that we could sign Rozier and use him or include say Yabusele to make up the difference between the trade exception and Walker's salary.  In either case, Charlotte has a motivation to do this because they would get a trade exception back for Walker instead on nothing.

To me, the trickier part is to entice Brooklyn to sign and trade for Kyrie.  They have less reason to do this if they can sign Kyrie anyway.  We do have draft picks to help with that.  If we can pull that off, it puts all kinds of possibilities in motion.  If not, we almost certainly need to renounce Horford (and everyone else we don't sign and trade) in order to sign Walker.

[saltlover]

... if we can then sign and trade for Walker using the trade exception.

We can’t fit Kemba into a Kyrie trade exception.

It would have to be a 3- or 4-way deal, where Kyrie and Rozier go out, and Kemba comes in.

You are deeper into the Cap nuances than I can address but it seems that we could sign Rozier and use him or include say Yabusele to make up the difference between the trade exception and Walker's salary.  In either case, Charlotte has a motivation to do this because they would get a trade exception back for Walker instead on nothing.

To me, the trickier part is to entice Brooklyn to sign and trade for Kyrie.  They have less reason to do this if they can sign Kyrie anyway.  We do have draft picks to help with that.  If we can pull that off, it puts all kinds of possibilities in motion.  If not, we almost certainly need to renounce Horford (and everyone else we don't sign and trade) in order to sign Walker.

No, even if Rozier signed to a max deal, the Celtics would still be about $13 million short of outgoing salary to match for Kemba.  Kyrie would need to be the primary outgoing salary to make a S&T possible that keeps Horford’s Bird rights.  Kyrie on his own isn’t enough either, about $6 million short, but that’s an easier hurdle.

The two biggest hurdles are convincing Al to resign and convincing Brooklyn to help.  If those two happen, the third piece (finding an extra $6 million) isn’t likely to be the part we can’t get over.

[nickagneta]

Isn't Kemba a BYC sign and trade player too? I'm not going to do the math but doesn't that seriously hinder any double sign and trades? Also wouldn't it hard cap both teams?

[saltlover]

Isn't Kemba a BYC sign and trade player too? I'm not going to do the math but doesn't that seriously hinder any double sign and trades? Also wouldn't it hard cap both teams?

Yes, Kemba is a BYC player also, but as noted in my OP, they could take back up to a little more than $21 million in salary from him, so that’s not really a hurdle unless you think Rozier is going to exceed that number.

And yes, it would hardcap both teams, but Charlotte is going to stay below the luxury tax anyway, much less the hard cap, and without the trade Boston isn’t coming close to the hardcap (since they’d use cap space for Walker), so I don’t think that’s a constraint either team is concerned about.

[Silky]

Isn't Kemba a BYC sign and trade player too? I'm not going to do the math but doesn't that seriously hinder any double sign and trades? Also wouldn't it hard cap both teams?

He is byc.
It shouldnt hard cap. I believe both teams are far enough below hardcap line.

[Roy H.]

Isn't Kemba a BYC sign and trade player too? I'm not going to do the math but doesn't that seriously hinder any double sign and trades? Also wouldn't it hard cap both teams?

Charlotte wouldn’t care about the hard cap.

He would be BYC, but I think we could get around that because of the ways the NBA allows teams to structure trades differently from each team’s perspective.  It works from Charlotte’s perspective because a team is always allowed to trade out more than it’s taking back in.

From Boston’s perspective, if we send out Kyrie’s $20 million and another $6 million (either through a Rozier sign and trade, or by sending out Baynes and a small salary), we could take on Kemba in a S&T.

[CelticsElite]

I dont understand what people here are thinking. There is zero chance Al comes  back

He's getting multiple offers that the Celtics have no interest in matching

[Valid]

I dont understand what people here are thinking. There is zero chance Al comes  back

He's getting multiple offers that the Celtics have no interest in matching

It is absolutely possible in certain S&T scenarios and it has already been mentioned by KOC and Keith Smith.

Is it likely? No, but saying that you "don't understand what people here are thinking" when Horford returning to Boston is reportedly even being discussed as a possibility by front office execs just shows you haven't been paying attention.

[Vermont Green]

Kyrie on his own isn’t enough either, about $6 million short, but that’s an easier hurdle.

That is what I am trying to describe.  We can't really do anything unless Brooklyn is willing to sign and trade with us for Kyrie.  If they do, we could then do something like Kyrie Trade Exception + Rozier for Walker without having to renounce Horford or anyone else.  We then have option with Horford including just signing him but I suspect we won't.  Sign and trade would be an option too but that is probably also not really likely.

[Ilikesports17]

I dont understand what people here are thinking. There is zero chance Al comes  back

He's getting multiple offers that the Celtics have no interest in matching

I guess the logic is that Boston is willing to offer horford one amount if they can get him with kemba and a much smaller amount if they can’t.

When negotiations originally broke down its possible they didn’t feel comfortable going to that 4th year or reaching that 25+ Aav that he’s rumored to be getting.

If they can swing the sign and trade stuff they may reconsider and come to believe that Horford could be the piece that pushes them to real contention. The other hope could be that it was Horford who was unwilling to take a teammate friendly deal with the assumption they’d simply lose Kyrie and sort of run it back without him and once it becomes clear to him he could play with Kemba he lowers the asking price.

I personally don’t ascribe to the first theory. Horford for 4/110+ is a bad deal. He’s just not that good. However I think there’s a chance, even if it’s small that Al could lower his demands a bit with walker in tow.

Remember a Horford exit wasn’t something people even considered until it became clear Kyrie was on his way out and furthermore, Horford seemed happy in Boston and his dad intimated that he’d love to be back.

[Neurotic Guy]

Well this Horford thing is turning into another of many "wishful thinking" scenarios that get me unspeakably excited -- especially true now in the aftermath of the "Great Letdown" of 2019.   

Celtics could have been (thought we were going to be):
Kyrie
Brown
Hayward
AD
Horford

Celtics might end up (with Walker after losing KI, Al, and the AD trade):
Walker
Brown
Hayward
Tatum
?
Smart

Not really much of a comparison between what could have been and what might end up being: one is a contender, the other is 6th seed.


Wishful thinking scenario now appears to be:
Walker
Brown
Hayward
Tatum
Horford
Smart

This is a team I could be really excited about.  Not sure they are a contender, there is really no top 10/15 guy... but exciting possibilities.  Dang... I want this. 

Disappointment likelihood = 97%(?)

[saltlover]

Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
Sources: Boston's showing interest in a 3-team sign-and-trade w/ Kyrie Irving (Nets), Kemba Walker (Celtics) and Terry Rozier (Hornets). Boston wants to create a full MLE and would likely need to surrender at least a first-round pick to Nets. So far, talks are exploratory.
3:09 PM · Jun 30, 2019

https://mobile.twitter.com/wojespn/status/1145409029151363072

MLE — or Al Horford!